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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

The Euro is going to either break our hearts or give us hope for at least 12 more hours.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Well here’s the positive, all you have to do is fly your drone above the warm nose and there’s your snow View attachment 71682View attachment 71683
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I don't think I've ever seen such a broad area of freezing rain advertised. All the way from Orangeburg and Baton Rouge to Kentucky on that first frame - I think that is totally off it's rocker. The second frame looks much more realistic. Long ways to go figuring this one out fellas.
 
I know higher wind speeds can significantly increase the impact of an ice storm. Any idea on what the wind may be for next week's system?
 
Had a sneaky uneasy feeling that we were going to trend to a more ice solution in the CAD areas and that looks like it is going to be the case as of right now. Still plenty of time to get the TPV to move further southeast over the GL.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I don't think I've ever seen such a broad area of freezing rain advertised. All the way from Orangeburg and Baton Rouge to Kentucky on that first frame - I think that is totally off it's rocker. The second frame looks much more realistic. Long ways to go figuring this one out fellas.
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That's a smoothed ensemble average. The coverage will not be that large.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
I’ve never contemplated the idea of too much snow in Atlanta - and I am not saying I wouldn’t love it - but you’ve got widespread roof collapses if that really ever did happen.
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Yeah 95% of the non-industrial construction would be caving?. I’m willing to chance it though!
 
iGRXY said:
Had a sneaky uneasy feeling that we were going to trend to a more ice solution in the CAD areas and that looks like it is going to be the case as of right now. Still plenty of time to get the TPV to move further southeast over the GL.
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It really seems ice has been the most consistent wintery threat advertised. The bad thing is if this knocks out power to millions of people followed by bitter cold.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wouldn’t surprise me if the EPS came in worse, that was just a weenie run last right
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I'm hoping it holds serve but the mood is away from that right now. Again we might get the Heckel-'Dr No!' in that it will continue to declare itself king and project as it has been doing
 
Shaggy said:
This may be whamby material and if so mods please move it.

We all need to remember models can and sometimes will lose good looks in the medium range. This could happen here and these clown maps will have been burned into our hearts and dreams. Lets remember to keep that perspective moving forward and temper any hope until we get inside that 120-144 hr mark.
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Think this post is worth bumping.
 
snod.conus.png
 
MichaelJ said:
With the UKMET going away and the CMC and Goofy showing what they show,, I am not optimistic about the upcoming EURO
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Agreed. With the UKMET not on our side (horrible), and the GEFS leaning that way more back and forth, I have a feeling EPS is going to take a loss here. We'll see. I bet when all is said and done the PV ends up out west.
 
This is probably why the GFS went back to a icier solution, notice inside 6 hours it was to weak (TPV near greenland) this little error matters 92AA9ADB-1D55-48F9-89FA-39029B39E0E7.gif
 
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