tractor girl
Member
I know this will never happen, but I would legit stfu for the next 3 years if it panned out with 20" in my backyard.
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Remember the key here we are still in the medium range this is where models start waffling back towards a worse solution .. give it time and they’ll waffle back like they do almost every time ... patience is key here ... euro has been fairly consistent I must say .. but even if it waffles .. there will be more WAFFLING
Stephenb888
Member
Next 3 years lol. I’d shut up for the next 10.
Hopefully the models waffle to thunderstorms if there gonna still try and show ice, that ice signal on the GEFS was no joke
The fact that models are showing this much ice and the fact that they often under-forecast low level cold air in these setups is a sobering thought. I may go get a generator myself if things look like this Sunday.
ATLwxfan
Member
We will have to bite off our leg to save our arm. Need the cold to press more AND bag our QPF
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Storm5
Member
Someone help me please . I’m assuming looking at the pivotal mean vs wxbell mean that pivotal counts everything as snow and wxbell only counts snow ?
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Hmmm
Pivotal uses a snow depth means, vs a 10:1 ratio map. Both don't take into account sleet.
Stormlover
Member
No, Weatherbell counts sleet, freezing rain and snow seperate
One thing will say is that if anything close to that GEFS run were to verify, I have feeling a lot of that would be sleet. If we trend to a strong CAD set up, it would most likely trend colder the closer we get.
Stormlover
Member
Weatherbell does
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
So far steady as she goes on the Euro thru 48 hr, minimal changes at best
Don’t know if I like that 
This is pretty much the same areas for the risk map they put out yesterday.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is also vs the 6z run on wxbell, and the 6z runs don't use new RAOB data unlike the 0z & 12z runs. RAOBs are gonna be absolutely critical here
Make sure you're looking at the GEFS. I believe that's what he was talking about.
Stormlover
Member
Ok, yeah, that's different.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
These changes on the 12z Euro still are pretty darn small for a model forecast that goes out to 72 hrs, any differences out to that point look to be in the realm of model noise & not worth worrying over or analyzing.
Lol that look at H5 is creepy, PV has horns lol 
Brad P is going to eat this up .. he loves (and I also like using) these products and lots of thought so go into them and usually they are fairly conservative with how far south they bring the winter precip
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My mistake, wxbell does compare 0z and 12z runs only. The RAOB input is probably the reason for this
Chattownsnow
Member
Euro very similar to prior run at 72 compared to 00z. Maybe slightly better cold press if I had to choose 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No consistent trend here on the Euro, today's 12z run is basically undoing the changes we saw on the 0z last night and putting us back to about where the 12z was yesterday. For as much uncertainty as there is here, the Euro has been pretty steady
Euro looking similar to the GEFS so far 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ugh, I hope that doesn't translate to ice here in later frames
Chattownsnow
Member
Yeah western Canada basically just reverted back to its previous run. Just model noise at this point I don’t see much of a trend anywhere
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Changes start to emerge here around day 4, not liking that other piece of PV interacting w/ our vortex by day 4, it's holding this back
This is bad.
iGRXY
Member
Euro does not look good
iGRXY
Member
So looks like ice or rain is the trend
Sigh, it’s getting into the shorter term as well with this look 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's ugly. Need the other piece of PV to stay separate and dig over Alaska, interacting w/ our vortex causes it to slow down & builds the SE ridge
If we waste a 1070 HP in the arctic....
BelmontWX79
Member
Hour 117 finally separating from the AK vortex. Is it too late though?
???? 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At this point, I hope it backs up far enough so we can get some thunderstorms & severe weather
Storm5
Member
Haha euro 20 degrees warmer vs 00z
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yup this might be an ugly run!