• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Before the bodies at the bottom of the cliff get piled to high, let’s remember how the models have tended to go the last couple months. Every time in this time range that models have shown the SER flexing and the southeast getting flooded with warm air, we’ve seen within several days it become more muted as the blocking in Canada pushes everything further south. 6 days ago, I was supposed to be getting a high close to 70 today, yet I’ll probably top out in the low 50s. 3 days ago, next Tuesday and Wednesday we’re expected to be very mild with high well into the 60s for most of the Carolinas yet even now my backyard is now looking at upper 40s to lower 50s both days. If you look, that big block is still up there. The big difference now is that there legitimate Arctic cold in Canada to tap into and push down. I’m not saying that what the Euro showed can’t or won’t happen. I’m just simply pointing out what the tendency has been all winter, and as we’ve seen over the last few years, the tendencies of the winter have won out more often than not.
 
MichaelJ said:
The enormous swings from run to run on the models is frustrating and agonizing. The one trend they all pretty much show is the TPV retrograding west and that means doom for SE snow. If this consolidates among the models tomorrow, we can hang it up and that may go for the extreme cold too
Click to expand...

Why tomorrow? We have temperature verification problems even 72 hours out?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This probably belongs in the whamby thread. But anyways, As disappointing and heartbreaking it is for the models to trend away from a winter storm the Southeast, Atleast hopefully we won't have to deal with yet another cold rain event. If models keep trending the PV more westward within the next 12-36 hours, maybe we might have a good chance at getting severe weather and nice temperatures instead of another cold rain event follow very cold/dry weather ,which becomes very boring and depressing after a while. The Euro and the UKmet might be best scenario out of the all of the 12z models since both of that the Euro an UKmet keep us on the warm side of the storm.
 
I wish I had the strength to ignore models between day 4-7, this happens every single time.....days 7-10 we had 4 models all agree on the same general thing, days 4-8 and its straight up circus time with literally any possible outcome happening, causing much cliff diving, then sometime later tomorrow they will run another monster SE hit and we will all start the cycle over again......I gonna stay glass half full and predict I see no less than 6" of wintery precip next weekend.....
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's sad esp considering we have a giant west-based -NAO to boot, that usually suppresses the SE ridge, but we still manage to screw it up.
Click to expand...
I really don’t know how we can dump legit cold in the east anymore and have it stay (vortex/TPV) it’s literally impossible, I remember back in the 1800s -NAOs would trap us under 512dm heights for a few days, nowadays a west based -NAO keeps your trough out west, LMFAO
 
Looks worse than the GEFS at day 5. Good news I would rather it go to pot now and lose a winter storm to a last sec NW trend.

I should note...this is a bad trend for central NC. This might be good for places further west.

eps.gif
 
Chazwin said:
Before the bodies at the bottom of the cliff get piled to high, let’s remember how the models have tended to go the last couple months. Every time in this time range that models have shown the SER flexing and the southeast getting flooded with warm air, we’ve seen within several days it become more muted as the blocking in Canada pushes everything further south. 6 days ago, I was supposed to be getting a high close to 70 today, yet I’ll probably top out in the low 50s. 3 days ago, next Tuesday and Wednesday we’re expected to be very mild with high well into the 60s for most of the Carolinas yet even now my backyard is now looking at upper 40s to lower 50s both days. If you look, that big block is still up there. The big difference now is that there legitimate Arctic cold in Canada to tap into and push down. I’m not saying that what the Euro showed can’t or won’t happen. I’m just simply pointing out what the tendency has been all winter, and as we’ve seen over the last few years, the tendencies of the winter have won out more often than not.
Click to expand...

You know this will just translate (settle) into cold rain. It keeps happening and no real reason for it to stop now. Like a mediocre basketball season. Can continue to hope but our overall winter this year is seemingly being just what we thought it is
 
Downeastnc said:
I wish I had the strength to ignore models between day 4-7, this happens every single time.....days 7-10 we had 4 models all agree on the same general thing, days 4-8 and its straight up circus time with literally any possible outcome happening, causing much cliff diving, then sometime later tomorrow they will run another monster SE hit and we will all start the cycle over again......I gonna stay glass half full and predict I see no less than 6" of wintery precip next weekend.....
Click to expand...
This 100 percent... look at the event that some folks will be getting tomorrow night and Sunday, 4 days ago it was completely gone with no chance of coming back. Even with the bad model runs of the last 24 hours, the CPC is still continuing to talk about this potential and NWS field offices throughout the south are beginning to include it in their discussion. Obviously they see something and they’re the ones with the years of experience, knowledge, and education to do what they’re doing. I look at models because to me it’s a fun hobby...for them it’s their livelihood
 
Chazwin said:
Before the bodies at the bottom of the cliff get piled to high, let’s remember how the models have tended to go the last couple months. Every time in this time range that models have shown the SER flexing and the southeast getting flooded with warm air, we’ve seen within several days it become more muted as the blocking in Canada pushes everything further south. 6 days ago, I was supposed to be getting a high close to 70 today, yet I’ll probably top out in the low 50s. 3 days ago, next Tuesday and Wednesday we’re expected to be very mild with high well into the 60s for most of the Carolinas yet even now my backyard is now looking at upper 40s to lower 50s both days. If you look, that big block is still up there. The big difference now is that there legitimate Arctic cold in Canada to tap into and push down. I’m not saying that what the Euro showed can’t or won’t happen. I’m just simply pointing out what the tendency has been all winter, and as we’ve seen over the last few years, the tendencies of the winter have won out more often than not.
Click to expand...
Absolutely agree with this right here. It is fairly easy to look at the mess displayed on the globals right now and think this is trending in the wrong direction. However, we have to come to terms with the fact that biases on these models change over the course of time with upgrades/updates and, on a shorter scale, with pattern changes like the strato warming event last month. Coronavirus and the lack of aviation data could have also hurt accuracy over the past year or even the fact that we haven't seen a consistent DJF -NAO in decade...we don't necessarily know.

However, it seems as if the bias this winter has been over-amplifying the southeastern ridge in the 3-6 day range fairly consistently. If i had a dollar for every 200 hr+ cold push that got pulled back in the medium range, I'd be a rich man. I expect the madness and depression to continue for another couple of days until we slowly start to pull back on the SER.
 
KyloG said:
Looks worse than the GEFS at day 5. Good news I would rather it go to pot now and lose a winter storm to a last sec NW trend.

I should note...this is a bad trend for central NC. This might be good for places further west.

View attachment 71746
Click to expand...
Agreed! Last second screw jobs are the worst kind of painful! I can still remember a rant by Lookout over on the old talk weather board when everyone was getting the goods and we suffered a leeside warm nose screw job from just south of Athens ga up towards habersham co. Last minute pain hurts the worst!! We will accept our screw job now and save further pain?.....sorry for the banter!
 
Well, to be fair...the EURO OP has had some wild swings on the runs lately. Not as big as that one....lol but it was consistent for a few runs then went back and forth starting with yesterdays 12z run. So now, 3 inconsistent runs in a row.
 
CaryWx said:
You know this will just translate (settle) into cold rain. It keeps happening and no real reason for it to stop now. Like a mediocre basketball season. Can continue to hope but our overall winter this year is seemingly being just what we thought it is
Click to expand...
It may very well for a lot of folks on this board, myself included. All I’m saying that is different this time is that for the first time this winter, legit Arctic air is available to tap into and there is a fairly good snowpack up north as well.
 
alfoman said:
Absolutely agree with this right here. It is fairly easy to look at the mess displayed on the globals right now and think this is trending in the wrong direction. However, we have to come to terms with the fact that biases on these models change over the course of time with upgrades/updates and, on a shorter scale, with pattern changes like the strato warming event last month. Coronavirus and the lack of aviation data could have also hurt accuracy over the past year or even the fact that we haven't seen a consistent DJF -NAO in decade...we don't necessarily know.

However, it seems as if the bias this winter has been over-amplifying the southeastern ridge in the 3-6 day range fairly consistently. If i had a dollar for every 200 hr+ cold push that got pulled back in the medium range, I'd be a rich man. I expect the madness and depression to continue for another couple of days until we slowly start to pull back on the SER.
Click to expand...
All joking aside....to his point one thing I’ve learned over years is if CPC and local NWS are discussing publicly they feel pretty confident re what they’re knowing/seeing. I’ve griped many times abt ffcs reluctance to acknowledge probabilities I felt were strong. In most cases they were mum/conservative for a reason. This being obviously the opposite scenario. They’re leaking tidbits so folks aren’t totally blindsided bc I’m betting they’re seeing a bit of “writing on the wall” so to speak for a potentially impactful scenario. No guarantees obv but I think there dialogue is very telling this early.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:

????
Click to expand...

The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.
 
Chazwin said:
The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.
Click to expand...

Give us another run or two like we just had and they'll be singing a very different tune
 
Chazwin said:
The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.
Click to expand...
That’s exactly my point as well. As much as I have admittedly railed on many of these pros over years...,fact is, they’re pros for a reason and make a living as such. More times than not they are on the right side of verification irregardless of the outcomes. May as well enjoy observing g how they operate between now and 14th. Probably learn a lot that we could use to interpret their handling of future scenarios.
 
Snowbird Bob said its not being accurate and he is sticking to his forecast so we will see i guess
 
And this is why we shouldn't be panicking over one model suite. Like I said, if it looks like this tomorrow or Sunday, I will give up. There's still some time for this to trend back to yesterday but if things continue to get worse for the next day or two, I will feel less confident about next weekend.
Chazwin said:
The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.
Click to expand...
 
GaSnowhound said:
That’s exactly my point as well. As much as I have admittedly railed on many of these pros over years...,fact is, they’re pros for a reason and make a living as such. More times than not they are on the right side of verification irregardless of the outcomes. May as well enjoy observing g how they operate between now and 14th. Probably learn a lot that we could use to interpret their handling of future scenarios.
Click to expand...
I do remember Brad P before the January 2016 storm being fairly steadfast that it would be a potentially high impact event for the Piedmont and upstate even as in the 3-5 day period most modeling had it as a cutter. He followed what he was pointing out was the pattern at the time. Well he ended pretty dead on with that one as it trends SE and if anything it was more widespread than even he thought as it was colder than forecast and the wintry precipitation got further south and east
 
Remember guys, this is still a week out and there will be multiple big changes between now and then. This far out, a possibility is all we can reasonably hope for. There was no reason to lock on to the 20 inch big dogs yesterday, as history tells us that was completely unrealistic. Plus, who really wants to be in the bullseye 7-8 days out, right? By the same token, today's runs aren't going to be the final solution, and may not be anywhere even close. We likely won't have much idea on this one until Wed or so. Climo says it will likely be a cold rain for most, and a mixed event for some.
 
Late next weekend could still provide if we can do this right
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
Regarding the Euro, it is just one run and the crucial period is still 7-8 days out. Models, especially operationals typically swing a good bit from run to run. So, no telling this far out if the 12Z Euro is going to be closer to reality. Just as the positive reactions are often overdone, so are the negative ones. Regardless, it is only wx, not life and death.
 
A strong cold front is forecast to push well south into the Gulf of Mexico later next week with the potential for one or two waves of low pressure to develop along this front and track northeast. If a surface low develops, anomalously cold temperatures would support snow to the northwest of its track. Based on analog tools and the preferred ECMWF ensemble mean which depicts at least a 20 percent chance of 3-day precipitation amounts exceeding 0.5 inch (liquid equivalent), a slight risk of heavy snow is posted from the Southern Appalachians northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and New England, Feb 13 to 16. This snow hazard is consistent with a negatively tilted 500-hPa trough across the east-central U.S. and subtropical ridging over the southwestern Atlantic. Due to the predicted shallow Arctic Air becoming established by week-2, there would also be an increased risk for an ice storm if any precipitation spreads northward into the southern Great Plains, Ozarks, and Tennessee Valley. Freezing rain could also affect the Mid-Atlantic, depending on the depth of the Arctic Air.
1612556295149.png
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top