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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Shawn said:
As @Webberweather53 has mentioned before, these big deep South events tend to have ice involved for someone historically. I don't think it's so many members from around the area versus myself, who know the horrors of no power for days and living in an older home without a means for power. From everything I've seen, many in the CAE area will take any and everything to do with Winter weather with happiness, lol.

@dsaur was around for the big one back in the day, and his stories about the warzone of pine tree sounds is horrific. Maybe he will post a bit about that in one of the wamby/banter threads if we get closer and it looks like we'll be facing it again.

I don't exactly like the look of the ensemble members for this region if you're looking for snow as the predominate ptype. We're many days out and things will change, but history shows that when this area starts to lose something, it's rare to come back.
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Oak should do better unless they pull up out of the ground from the weight, if it's a really bad one..several inches or more. Won't be going to to the store unless you walk dodging the downed power lines. It looks like War of the Worlds with every pole down, and trees in the streets too. It's pure survival for days, lol. You sure don't want an all electric home. Gas or propane so you don't freeze. I'll trade all my zrain for the rest of my life, for a 1 inch snow. I don't like anything about pure destruction, and that's what a big one is. It's like hoping a tornado hits you :)
 
Hell at least the GFS shows some wintry. Lol. Euro shut us out with shorts weather by Tuesday or Wednesday
 
The bad news is that the 0Z EPS is warmer than the 12Z EPS. But the good news is that the 0Z EPS is much colder than the 0Z Euro op. So, it looks more like a delayed but not denied cold coming with colder coming in 2/13-4 with no SER warmth to worry about then. Epic SE cold isn't showing but nice and BN cold nevertheless.

SE CAD areas, especially NC may get ZR 2/15-6 per 0Z EPS.
 
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I wish the para/v16 was running. It has been doing very well. The Euro has been flipping around quite a day from day to day. It or the GFS will have to cave soon. It's evolution is already starkly different than the GFS at D4/5.
 
Sure would be nice to take advantage of the cold air after it moves in next weekend
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stephend122080 said:
Sure would be nice to take advantage of the cold air after it moves in next weekend
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Looks pretty much like the Feb 2014 storm and there would be more sleet mixed in than what the GFS shows. Too bad we are still 10-11 days away and this can easily trend towards a cutter as well.
 
Random question: What type of synoptic set up do we need to get some dense fog? I know we get it sometimes here in ATL with CAD but I remember in the past there would be multiple nights in row where it’d get so foggy that visibilities are reduced to 1/4 mile or less which made for some great photography...
 
Let me reiterate what I sort of jokingly said in the whamby thread last night:

Based off the way this winter has gone, it'd really surprise me if we don't flip back to being cold or "cold-ish". Now timing is a much better question.

Why?

Because we simply haven't had La Nina like conditions at all in this winter, even if it's largely been a monotonous grind.
 
Mr. Golf said:
I've got good news! We have surpassed the most -ao days for any winter on record. Congrats on people patiently waiting for our opportunity to experience this.
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It has been awesome! But isn’t 2020-1 tied with 2009-10 for the record with two days of +AO?

By the way, the forecast is for sub -4 AO in about a week, the first time for that since Jan of 2016! The time before that was Dec of 2010 I think.
 
Really hope the gfs is rushing the front and we get something more similar to the icon and Euro. I could go for some warm weather next weekend, Euro was near 70
 
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