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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

SD said:
Because you are making an assumption that increased LL cold=deeper trough but they aren't 1:1 correlators. If buford had said 500mb heights on the OUN sounding are verifying lower then you could have said that might lead to more downstream ridging
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That’s what I was implying , that the 500mb shows a deeper trough! My apologies for not clarifying for you but that’s why said maybe . As I had not seen the 500mb.
 
Lickwx said:
That’s what I was implying , that the 500mb shows a deeper trough! My apologies for not clarifying for you but that’s why said maybe . As I had not seen the 500mb.
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The thing is in the big arctic outbreaks and air masses low level cold usually wins on the southward extent and arrives ahead of forecast vs modeling. It feels like it's one of the few times cold over performs
 
You know, the SE Death Ridge doesn’t seem so bad after all.... 1pm temps hour 162 GFS. Sub freezing high temps all the way down to Brownsville TX. Incredible.

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Webberweather53 said:
Here's the SC map for the Feb 6-7th storm. Working on NC atm

View attachment 72877
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Here's the NC map for this storm. Thanks to everyone providing all the reports here, ground-truth from the blogs was truly invaluable to the creation of this map, a lot of the official reports were biased low due to the time of the day the heaviest snow arrived, changeover to sleet &/or rain in many areas, as well as marginal sfc temps that led to rapid melting & compaction of the snow.

February 6-7 2021 NC Snowmap.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thinking about making some season-to-date snow maps based on all the maps I've made this winter to see where we currently stand. Perhaps I should make one w/ total snow/sleet accum & another w/ say the # of events that have at least 0.2"+ of snow &/or a glaze of ZR.
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Webber, would you ever consider doing Georgia, or not interest really?
 
J.C. said:
Webber, would you ever consider doing Georgia, or not interest really?
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I certainly could and for really big storms I plan to do a map (Like Feb 8 2020 for ex). It’s gonna be a lot of additional work no doubt esp since I know so little about the geography there, but if a lot of people here want me to also do GA in real time too then I certainly have no problem with that. I expanded into SC last year because I live pretty close to the border and a lot of people have asking about it for years.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I certainly could and for really big storms I plan to do a map (Like Feb 8 2020 for ex). It’s gonna be a lot of additional work no doubt esp since I know so little about the geography there, but if a lot of people here want me to also do GA in real time too then I certainly have no problem with that. I expanded into SC last year because I live pretty close to the border and a lot of people have asking about it for years.
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I can certainly understand if you don't have the time or interest, but going forward, regardless if you plan on making a map or not, I'll try and gather any and all observations and send them your way. You're maps are by far and away the best. Thanks!
 
Well, I think mentally I'm just going to know it's not working this year. Nina and poor MJO phases wants to SE ridge and that's what it's going to do with no PNA. The Atlantic blocking mutes it, but that's it. It's not enough by itself to snow on us. I've got to just accept that and hope next year we get a nino or at the very least get forcing to get us in 8-2 at some point in winter.
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, I think mentally I'm just going to know it's not working this year. Nina and poor MJO phases wants to SE ridge and that's what it's going to do with no PNA. The Atlantic blocking mutes it, but that's it. It's not enough by itself to snow on us. I've got to just accept that and hope next year we get a nino or at the very least get forcing to get us in 8-2 at some point in winter.
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You don't want phase 1 at all in any winter.Screenshot_20210209-154242_Gallery.jpg
 
For mid next week, check out the tall ridge out west on the 6Z GEFS meaning winter far from over then in places like TX/AR/MS/TN if true:

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SD said:
Near 60 tomorrow. Nice
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I sense a chance of a bust today on the high end. Forecast is mid 40s. Currently, mid 40s and it looks like places to the south are running warmer. Maybe 60? Probably too hopeful but hey, the 60s made it to Fredricksburg VA yesterday!
 
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