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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Meteorologist1999 said:
What is 0Z showing?
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Basically, all of the models were a disaster last night if you want cold and snow in the SE. The 0z GFS gave the only hope, as it started to get cold around day 6. Then, guess what? The 6z went away from that.

Remember all those 1050+ highs? All gone.

All this business about this model moving toward that model is a bunch of bunk. Nothing is moving toward anything else. They have all been horrendous and have overdone the cold and the warmth in the LR.

We will be lucky to get solidly below normal for more than a day or two in the next 2 weeks. We'll probably continue to see weak CAD events with slop to rain west to east.

Maybe a few spots toward the western SE and far western Carolinas can pick up a legitimate icing event, but that's probably about it.

First half of Feb in the books.
 
Rain Cold said:
Basically, all of the models were a disaster last night if you want cold and snow in the SE. The 0z GFS gave the only hope, as it started to get cold around day 6. Then, guess what? The 6z went away from that.

Remember all those 1050+ highs? All gone.

All this business about this model moving toward that model is a bunch of bunk. Nothing is moving toward anything else. They have all been horrendous and have overdone the cold and the warmth in the LR.

We will be lucky to get solidly below normal for more than a day or two in the next 2 weeks. We'll probably continue to see weak CAD events with slop to rain west to east.

Maybe a few spots toward the western SE and far western Carolinas can pick up a legitimate icing event, but that's probably about it.

First half of Feb in the books.
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Yep winter looks to be over with pretty much nothing to see what a let down :(
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Let me reiterate what I sort of jokingly said in the whamby thread last night:

Based off the way this winter has gone, it'd really surprise me if we don't flip back to being cold or "cold-ish". Now timing is a much better question.

Why?

Because we simply haven't had La Nina like conditions at all in this winter, even if it's largely been a monotonous grind.
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Yeah this is very true. Oth, this La Niña certainly hasn’t forgotten that the SE US usually torches in Feb. The medium range keeps getting warmer and warmer with time...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this is very true. Oth, this La Niña certainly hasn’t forgotten that the SE US usually torches in Feb. The medium range keeps getting warmer and warmer with time...
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Exactly cant stand la Nina's anymore and that's all we've been getting these past few years I don't understand it the climate has definitely changed and gotten warmer
 
gfs_asnow_us_65.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this is very true. Oth, this La Niña certainly hasn’t forgotten that the SE US usually torches in Feb. The medium range keeps getting warmer and warmer with time...
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I hope so, but like the map that @SD showed I’m afraid we will just be stuck under CAD. What’s up with all the CAD this year? Permanent high in the northeast ?
 
Bamwx hasn't posted anything really in a few days. Very interesting to me that we got a SSW that finally got cold over here, -nao, and ao and cant get cold. To me, its interesting. It should be especially interesting to people that know weather patterns really good.
 
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Mr. Golf said:
Bamwx hasn't posted anything really in a few days. Very interesting to me that we got a SSW that finally got cold over here, -nao, and ao and cant get cold. To me, its interesting. It should be especially interesting to people that know weather patterns really good.
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Called global warming. Better known as climate change face it its real. And watch the 12zgfs today start to cave to the euro
 
SD said:
Yeah but not too long ago the op was way cooler than the mean and majority of the members. As a whole the pattern is incredibly touchy and pushing one domino changes the entire run
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Its interesting for sure. No consensus quite yet
 
tennessee storm said:
Called global warming. Better known as climate change face it its real. And watch the 12zgfs today start to cave to the euro
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I bet the folks in Kansas and Nebraska don't call it global warming.... maybe we put too much stock in neg nao, neg Ao etc.and ... may be we get cold after all?
 
BufordWX said:
Mega bust on the temperatures around here today. Had a forecast high in the mid to upper 40s and so far haven’t gotten out of the mid 30s. They have even had to issue a WWA for light freezing rain/freezing drizzle accumulations just to my north due to the colder temperatures. Lol
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Gonna be another temperature bust for today it looks like. Forecast yesterday had a high near 50 for today but they have already lowered it to 40 which might still be too high as the HRRR has us dropping into the 20s shortly after sunrise as the arctic fronts move through. On another note I wouldn’t be surprised to be added to the WWA as the HRRR has several hours of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle falling with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Fun weather around OKC!
 
I’m honestly not sure if this means anything for anyone later, but this arctic air mass is greatly over performing right now in the southern plains. The euro is busting way way too warm. It has OKC at 31 by 6:00 and it is currently 22 right now. Even the GFS is too warm. The Hrrr also has a low in the mid teens tonight. Again, I’m not sure if this means anything for others to the east, but it might be something to watch in coming days.
 
BufordWX said:
I’m honestly not sure if this means anything for anyone later, but this arctic air mass is greatly over performing right now in the southern plains. The euro is busting way way too warm. It has OKC at 31 by 6:00 and it is currently 22 right now. Even the GFS is too warm. Again I’m not sure if this means anything for others to the east, but it might be something to watch in coming days.
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It could mean it is digging deeper which actually suggests more ridging in the east . Especially Atlantic south east .
 
Lickwx said:
How so? If the trough further west digs deeper wouldn’t the downstream affect by physics alone be more ridging further east? I could be oversimplifying it of course .
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Because you are making an assumption that increased LL cold=deeper trough but they aren't 1:1 correlators. If buford had said 500mb heights on the OUN sounding are verifying lower then you could have said that might lead to more downstream ridging
 
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