Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[Webberweather53]

1045 mb is a pretty good mean for a high pressure 8-9 days out.View attachment 70506

1045 is absurd for a mean that far out. Once you account for dispersion you probably are talking about a 1055 coming down out of Canada. It's the kind of high that can make it snow on the Gulf coast & in Florida.

 

[stormcentral]

This is close for the midsouth area

Northwest trend...

 

[$alt]

And that euro run RIGHT THERE is exactly what I was saying earlier to the people freaking out over the cold being more moderate. You will end up with cold and dry. Now, that run verbatim; looks great for my back yard and the deep south... cause that cold push is probably a bit much.

Just look @ the pattern though.. Florida... not just the panhandle either.

 

[Webberweather53]

And that euro run RIGHT THERE is exactly what I was saying earlier to the people freaking out over the cold being more moderate. You will end up with cold and dry. Now, that run verbatim; looks great for my back yard and the deep south... cause that cold push is probably a bit much.

Just look @ the pattern though.. Florida... not just the panhandle either.

Well if the storm goes to your south, chase it lol

 

[Webberweather53]

I don't I've ever seen a 1045mb sfc high descending into the CONUS on a day 9 ensemble mean before. Both the GEFS and EPS are doing exactly that

 

[$alt]

Well if the storm goes to your south, chase it lol

If SC gets blanked and Florida gets a substantial snow; I might do that just for the historic reasoning.

 

[Webberweather53]

If SC gets blanked and Florida gets a substantial snow; I might do that just for the historic reasoning.

Yeah exactly lol

 

[$alt]

Yeah exactly lol

Well seeing the lower pressure in the eps mean you posted along with the high being a bit slower is not a bad look for the SE, maybe even I-20. I'll take it.

 

[Webberweather53]

Well seeing the lower pressure in the eps mean you posted along with the high being a bit slower is not a bad look for the SE, maybe even I-20. I'll take it.

There are a number of EPS members showing legit snow down near the Gulf coast & I-10 corridor this run.

 

[Brent]

Well if the storm goes to your south, chase it lol

Been there done that lol it was pretty top of the line too

 

[Webberweather53]

Fwiw, ~2/3rds of the 0z EPS suite has an overrunning event in the Feb 10-13 time frame between the I-40 & I-10 corridors

 

[Webberweather53]

Been a while since I've seen an EPS run like this in Fayetteville & Lumberton. Plus, most of those members w/ snow are overrunning events

 

[Faco Thomas]

Been a while since I've seen an EPS run like this in Fayetteville & Lumberton. Plus, most of those members w/ snow are overrunning events

View attachment 70519

View attachment 70520

How did the EPS looked for Augusta/Colombia far as snow?

 

[Webberweather53]

How did the EPS looked for Augusta/Colombia far as snow?

Honestly, that's really impressive for this far out & south

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS non-zero snow mean down to the Gulf coast

 

[Webberweather53]

The 850mb 0C line is well south of I-20 on the EPS

 

[Webberweather53]

Very strong overrunning signal on the 0z EPS ~ day 8-9. Good look for folks near/along the 20 corridor

 

[Clem282340]

Very strong overrunning signal on the 0z EPS ~ day 8-9. Good look for folks near/along the 20 corridor

View attachment 70526

What does the mean look like for this weekend storm

 

[Webberweather53]

What does the mean look like for this weekend storm

Congrats mid-Atlantic

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's the EPS snow mean for the real period of interest around to just after Feb 10th. The max in snow on the EPS mean over the entire E US is actually over SC, GA, & east-central NC.