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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Lickwx said:
I sense a chance of a bust today on the high end. Forecast is mid 40s. Currently, mid 40s and it looks like places to the south are running warmer. Maybe 60? Probably too hopeful but hey, the 60s made it to Fredricksburg VA yesterday!
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Suns playing peekaboo with me here. Lets get 50!
 
Otherwise, flattened upper ridging will remain centered to our
SE thru the period as very broad upper trofing persists well to
our north. At the sfc, transient high pressure will continue to
slide eastward and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and tomorrow
keeping a weak wedge pattern over the fcst area and winds out of
the E to NE. At the same time, a broad area of deeper moisture
associated with an elongated convergence zone will move into the
fcst area from the NW tonight and linger thru the rest of the
near-term period. The models have been trying to develop some
sort of weak meso-low along this bndy for days, but with minimal
upper-lvl support to work with, they have been inconsistent with
the location and strength of the low. So it appears that whatever
does spin up will be fairly weak, at least until it moves offshore
later tomorrow. As for the sensible fcst, the trends remain the
same. PoPs ramp up across the fcst area from west to east tomorrow
morning/aftn, with likely values over most of the fcst area by
mid-aftn and the bulk of the precip expected to fall tomorrow
night into early Friday with temps warm enough for an all-rain
event. Model profiles continue to generate some low to mid-lvl
instability tomorrow aftn/evening over the SC Upstate and NE
Georgia, so some iso/sct thunder is possible during that period.
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Yo?
 
10Feb2021 -0.51520E+01

So, Feb 10th's -5.152 AO was the first sub -5 AO in over 10 years (since 12/18/10)! Congrats!
I think Feb 11th will also be sub -5.
 
Looking at the 6z GFS, many of us in the Carolinas and Ga may stay above freezing for the next 8/9 days. The last day of so of this spell may need some to turn on AC as dew points will be way up into the 60s.
 
While at the same time, the 06Z GFS keeps much of AR, west TN, and even extreme nw MS below freezing thru Saturday.....of NEXT week! Weird.
 
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  • Wow
Reactions: SD
- The AO dipped to -5.31 today, which is the lowest since 1/4/2010!
- Only 3 out of 70 winters since 1950-1 have had a day with lower AO: 2009-10 (a very cold SE winter, coldest since 1977-8), 1984-5 (during the great cold dump), and 1976-7 (during another major cold dump which lead to snow falling in S FL/Bahamas).
- The only 17 days with lower AO than 2/11/2021: 1/2-4/2010, 12/20-3/2009, 1/18-20/1985, and 1/11-17/1977.
- Unfortunately for cold lovers thanks to the SER pattern, much of the SE will have little to come of the current extreme -AO. However, the Midwest/Plains/TX/Midsouth have plenty to show for it with historic cold. So, we can live vicariously through what those areas experience.
 
Yeah, so I was asking for legitimate, expertise info about what can cool the Pacific down. Ever since that super El Nino in 2016 we've been screwed. It's amazing that places like Dallas and Houston are about to witness history, and look at us to the east. Something is definitely wrong on a grand scale in the weather system that needs investigation. This is madness. This needs to be studied no doubt. I'm just amazed that something like that doesn't go from west to east.
 
So is winter pretty much over for the SE? I’m guessing the artic cold isn’t gonna make it this far at all.
 
Winter ain’t over. Y’all already know we are going to have some weird Winter weather event in March or early April. But I kinda wish it was. I find myself each year disliking Winter more and more & appreciating Spring more.
 
Robert West said:
Winter ain’t over. Y’all already know we are going to have some weird Winter weather event in March or early April. But I kinda wish it was. I find myself each year disliking Winter more and more & appreciating Spring more.
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Spring sucks. Allergies are the devil.
 
Robert West said:
Winter ain’t over. Y’all already know we are going to have some weird Winter weather event in March or early April. But I kinda wish it was. I find myself each year disliking Winter more and more & appreciating Spring more.
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I love winter the most of any season, regardless of the actual wx. And this winter down here has actually been quite pleasant for outdoor activities with mainly sub 50F dewpoints and few torching days, easily the best winter since 2017-8. A real winter for a change.

I don't enjoy spring much due to rising temps/dewpoints, bugs waking up, and pollen.
 
1d9c17b4db93680f425fbfc74efc949c.jpg



I remember when February was a fun month across the Western Carolinas and Charlotte.

No we loath in our on tropical filth.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
MichaelJ said:
It happens more than you think, when cold dives into the west/n central plains it gets "stuck at the apps quite a bit. Unless there is a good confluence and/or a -NAO the push just stalls especially with a WAR in place
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And initially this was modeled to come well east about 10 days ago.
 
MichaelJ said:
It happens more than you think, when cold dives into the west/n central plains it gets "stuck at the apps quite a bit. Unless there is a good confluence and/or a -NAO the push just stalls especially with a WAR in place
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Yes it does happen some times (even during the golden ages of winters in the 1970s/1980s)where the cold never makes it past the Mountains. However, it's more common now than ever due to the SE ridge being a huge factor every winter due to the MJO being in wrong phase almost all the time. I could see this being the new normal due to the warm Indian Ocean/western Pacific Ocean. Severe cold/winter storms in Central and Northeastern US. Warmth with periods of cold rain for the eastern Southeast and flip flop between warmth/cold from MS-western GA.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Yes it does happen some times (even during the golden ages of winters in the 1970s/1980s)where the cold never makes it past the Mountains. However, it's more common now than ever due to the SE ridge being a huge factor every winter due to the MJO being in wrong phase almost all the time. I could see this being the new normal due to the warm Indian Ocean/western Pacific Ocean. Severe cold/winter storms in Central and Northeastern US. Warmth with periods of cold rain for the eastern Southeast and flip flop between warmth/cold from MS-western GA.
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Maine and New England have been incredibly warm this winter , like record levels if I’m not mistaken . Eastern Canada as well
 
MichaelJ said:
It happens more than you think, when cold dives into the west/n central plains it gets "stuck at the apps quite a bit. Unless there is a good confluence and/or a -NAO the push just stalls especially with a WAR in place
Click to expand...

Yep. The Mother of all -NAO’s just happened to relax at the wrong time. It sucks but it is what it is.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
It is FUCKI## AMAZING THAT THIS LEVEL of arctic air cannot move EAST,,WTF>>>>>????
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MichaelJ said:
It happens more than you think, when cold dives into the west/n central plains it gets "stuck at the apps quite a bit. Unless there is a good confluence and/or a -NAO the push just stalls especially with a WAR in place
Click to expand...

That artic airmass is so shallow i don't even know if its capable of crossing over the apps. It got deposited between the two ranges in America and is essentially stuck there with how shallow it is. It needed to be deposited east of GL for it to make it down to us.
IMG_20210211_192755.jpg

Random sounding from Ok / TX. Cold air is 900mb and lower. Thats about 3,000 - 4,000 feet. At 6,000 feet its 50 degrees. Its a big chunk of artic air, but its just soo shallow.
 
smast16 said:
That artic airmass is so shallow i don't even know if its capable of crossing over the apps. It got deposited between the two ranges in America and is essentially stuck there with how shallow it is. It needed to be deposited east of GL for it to make it down to us.
View attachment 74064

Random sounding from Ok / TX. Cold air is 900mb and lower. Thats about 3,000 - 4,000 feet. At 6,000 feet its 50 degrees. Its a big chunk of artic air, but its just soo shallow.
Click to expand...
Good analysis!
 
smast16 said:
That artic airmass is so shallow i don't even know if its capable of crossing over the apps. It got deposited between the two ranges in America and is essentially stuck there with how shallow it is. It needed to be deposited east of GL for it to make it down to us.
View attachment 74064

Random sounding from Ok / TX. Cold air is 900mb and lower. Thats about 3,000 - 4,000 feet. At 6,000 feet its 50 degrees. Its a big chunk of artic air, but its just soo shallow.
Click to expand...
@Webberweather53 mentioned Rocky Mountain cold air damming other day, does this count as an event sort of? Any contribution to the shallowness of it all?
 
Lickwx said:
Maine and New England have been incredibly warm this winter , like record levels if I’m not mistaken . Eastern Canada as well
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Yeah but they can afford to have above average warmth....more often then not, they're still cold enough for snow and if anything, that probably helps drive cyclogenesis closer to them. If they're too cold, it likely means the storm track is too far south and too dry for anything significant.
 
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