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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Myfrotho704_ said:
Gotta be Fookin kidding me that evolution at the end of the euro was headed a direction I don’t like for March warmth View attachment 74572
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I would like to see the west coast ridge moved further east and further north towards Alaska, therefore, pushing the PV SE. Maybe if that happens, maybe we might get one last chance at winter weather before spring is in full effect.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gotta be Fookin kidding me that evolution at the end of the euro was headed a direction I don’t like for March warmth View attachment 74572
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1. The 360 hour map of even the EPS has little value as it is hardly, if at all, better than climo on its own.
2. For the 11-15 day period overall, it is actually a bit warmer than the 0Z.
3. Fwiw (since we're talking way out at 360 hours), I don't even see how the 360 hour map suggests it wouldn't be warm in early March. It has a strengthening SER and well AN temps in the SE west all the day back to TX:

ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_h_0360.png

ecmen_12_h500_na_h_0360.png
 
GaWx said:
1. The 360 hour map of even the EPS has little value as it is hardly, if at all, better than climo on its own.
2. For the 11-15 day period overall, it is actually a bit warmer than the 0Z.
3. Fwiw (since we're talking way out at 360 hours), I don't even see how the 360 hour map suggests it wouldn't be warm in early March. It has a strengthening SER and well AN temps in the SE west all the day back to TX:

View attachment 74588

View attachment 74589
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Id normally believe that but going off what has happened this season so far, ensembles in the LR love to shift to a classic background state matching the overall global patterns like La Nina for example, but that may have merit given the lack of a -NAO and lowering of the AAM per the CFSv2
 
Chazwin said:
After looking at that, I pulled up the indicies on the NOAA site and the Euro actually appears fairly lined with it. The AO, after briefly going positive this week looks to take another dive and become strongly negative again, the NAO looks to be weak positive for a few days and then go weak negative, the PNA looks to be around neutral at this timeframe, and the MJO looks to still be in phase 7 but back down to a lower amp again. Certainly seems unusual for a Niña. Usually when the pattern flips to milder, that’s it... of course this has not been a normal Niña
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March 2018
 
Chazwin said:
The only other winter I can remember with this many 35 degree rains for CLT metro was the winter of 2003-04. Even though we had scored in the “Super CAD” event in January, there were so many times that year that we were getting cold rain while north of I-40 into Virginia was scoring big... then of course came 2/26-27. For east of the mountains to score now, it’s obviously going to take something like that with seasonal pattern transitions.
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We only got 1 foot here. I feel cheated, LOL Seriously though that was a great event for many of us
 
JHS said:
We only got 1 foot here. I feel cheated, LOL Seriously though that was a great event for many of us
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It was just an amazing storm to experience. I still remember during the 5pm news that day when WBTV’s Eric Thomas said that the storm was only half way through and that the lull we were in was just a break, the two anchors looked stunned... this was of course at a time when the overrunning part of the storm had already put down 6-10” in the metro area. A couple hours later I sat on my porch watching the heaviest snow I had ever seen while every minute flashes of lightning struck and reflected off the falling snow and lit up everything.
 
NCSNOW said:
0z GFS even colder. Major Ice storm NC into VA again. 1042 parked in Maine
View attachment 74747
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We have seen this so many times this year to always end up a disappointment. I have been buried in feet of snow based on models this year. 3 inches total and a few icy trees lol. Oh well better than last winter. Time to wrap up this winter after this one. Reel it in
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Damn shorter wavelengths View attachment 74771
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Ya know... this period is starting to look halfway interesting for us. Really good trough positioning over New England here on the EPS, we just need this look to generally hold and a wave to come thru the plains/OH valley at the right time

1613304202966.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ya know... this period is starting to look halfway interesting for us. Really good trough positioning over New England here on the EPS, we just need this look to generally hold and a wave to come thru the plains/OH valley at the right time

View attachment 74828
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Looks like a Carolina special. Not sure that look works for GA. But...better than what we have right now.


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Webberweather53 said:
Ya know... this period is starting to look halfway interesting for us. Really good trough positioning over New England here on the EPS, we just need this look to generally hold and a wave to come thru the plains/OH valley at the right time

View attachment 74828
Click to expand...
Correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s not too different a look from February 2004.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ya know... this period is starting to look halfway interesting for us. Really good trough positioning over New England here on the EPS, we just need this look to generally hold and a wave to come thru the plains/OH valley at the right time

View attachment 74828
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This crap again. Really? Can we finally move on to spring already? Won't be cold enough for snow/ice, but this sort of look won't be nearly enough to warm us up or give severe weather.
 
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We are gonna do it Triad. Avg BN DecJan,Feb. The whole met winter will avg BN temp wise and AN qpf.
February will be a solid -2 after today. And looking at 12z GFS out through Feb 25 most days ,if not all will avg BN. Fact this Feb has a shot to probably rank top 10-20 range coldest on record. Lots of cad sigs showing up.
No signs of a fluke storm to bail us out in the snowfall dept. Gonna take a ULL or freak 93 deal im afraid. Just cant get cold enough snow soundings in this pattern. Will have to be a situation where it makes its own .
 
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