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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

NWS GSP AFD:

MODELS INTRODUCE A BROAD ARCTIC SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH SINK TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THICKNESSES FLATTENING OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, COLD AIR ALOFT WON'T BE AS SUFFICIENT AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS, THE ARCTIC BLAST THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES IS LOSING ITS STEAM WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
 
It's 50/50 all next week out to mid month, Valentines Day. Models have played Lucy one to many times with me over the years to buy into their LR pipe dreams. See if the trend swings back to Vodka Cold making it east of the Apps for early next week first and foremost. Not uncommon to see waffles and also not uncommon to get the football yanked out from underneath you as well. Jury is still out.

We are going into day 3 Feb. For GSO we are -3.5 and for NC we will spend most of our days a tick or two under normal through mid month. But I caution everyone into buying a big artic press making its way all the way down south. Looks promising, barking. But It can also sit right at the front porch doorstep and stop without coming on in and staying a while. Which leaves us with bleeding cold. Which may be just enough to get us some snow if a storm comes along or just enough to get us surface cold/ice - cold rain.
 
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Robert West said:
Looks like the latest GFS jumped on board with the overnight Euro with that time frame of the 10th-15th that’s been mentioned. We just got to get this to a reliable range.
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It doesn't look like a warm pattern for the foreseeable future, that's for sure. Will it remain that way on subsequent runs? Idk, but that block is robust and has dropped anchor in a good spot, and as long as it stays thereabouts, it's not probably going to get much above normal around these parts.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly, I don’t get the complaining/worrying lol, sure the cold isn’t looking as impressive, but that pattern right there is still in general, really impressive lol, still got CP flow, it’s just not directed over the SE exactly
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That's kinda the reason I'm looking past this weekend into next week, when moisture looks to get involved.
Robert West said:
Looks like the latest GFS jumped on board with the overnight Euro with that time frame of the 10th-15th that’s been mentioned. We just got to get this to a reliable range.
Click to expand...
CMC is not bad either for last night 0z. Storm threat is there. Need better temps, but we can work with what is on the field right now. I think we tend a bit colder than modeled on the surface.
 
Artic cold coming next week and we need better temps?
WeatherBuddy21 said:
That's kinda the reason I'm looking past this weekend into next week, when moisture looks to get involved.
CMC is not bad either for last night 0z. Storm threat is there. Need better temps, but we can work with what is on the field right now. I think we tend a bit colder than modeled on the surface.
Click to expand...
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
NWS GSP AFD:

MODELS INTRODUCE A BROAD ARCTIC SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH SINK TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THICKNESSES FLATTENING OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, COLD AIR ALOFT WON'T BE AS SUFFICIENT AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS, THE ARCTIC BLAST THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES IS LOSING ITS STEAM WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
Click to expand...
So this may not be all that bad. I would like to see some "real" cold air (where the lakes freeze over), but that usually means cold/dry. We want the air to come into the US and then spread out. (as JB has mentioned in the past) The cold will then overperform by undercutting further south and east as currently modeled (if we're dealing with true arctic air). This is where we get our storms. Might mean an ice storm like the Canadian is showing, but that's our reality of living where we do.
 
lexxnchloe said:
all that cold and that paltry snow? disappointing
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Knowing the run to run variability, focusing on details? You set your own self up for disappointment. Just embrace the pattern which at least puts you "in the game". By 12z, it may show a coastal for ILM! LOL!
 
On the latest GEFS, this is the earliest frame when I'd say the good below normal cold reaches MBY. EPS is similar. It's nice to see it modeled, but boy is it a good long lead away. Kinda bummed we're kicking the can a bit here honestly. But if the pattern actually eventually shows up (big if) it looks like it's going to be cold and stay cold a while. So we wait.

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