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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah but they can afford to have above average warmth....more often then not, they're still cold enough for snow and if anything, that probably helps drive cyclogenesis closer to them. If they're too cold, it likely means the storm track is too far south and too dry for anything significant.
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Yeah, I wish I could find it but Brett bretschnieder, or whatever his name is. Guy with all the climo maps on Twitter, made a map showing where it snows when temps are below vs above avg more .
 
Next Thursday; After we find a way to rain with Tuesday storm coming up out of New Orleans:
Euro and Canadian throw salt in the wound with some Ice for another "what could have been" missed opportunity.
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I know, I know, it's the GFS and the CMC but I'm turning my attention to some possible flizzard action in Alabama late next week

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Snowfan said:
Not really a fan of that as it's cold-chasing moisture and those don't usually materialize very well.
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While this is true, when you're down to your scout team qb and he's got to complete a hail-mary just to tie the game....you root for that special little fella! :p
 
Looks terrible. I don’t see any reason to get excited and I feel like if you find one, you’re grasping hard...which is fine we all love snow, but ugh. We could go the rest of Feb without a dendrite. Don’t really care about ZR or mix events, personally.

 
GoDuke said:
It seems like the SER is the most driving factor in our winters Despite all other patterns. I see it mentioned multiple times every winter.
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It’s mentioned multiple times because we perpetually dread it. It creeps into our mind like weeds in a garden. It has a knack for showing up at the worst possible time.


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The first 75 Days of met winter will be in the books come Monday. Only about 14 to go. The triad has averaged below normal temp wise the entire stretch and much above normal qpf wise. However in real ville its been one gut punch,face slap after another. Ive never expierenced more low to mid 30 degree rains in my life as this winter. Didnt get skunked, but the pacific has not done us any favors this winter. East of the mtns , you cant survive off -naos and AOs. Mtns,MA can make it work.
We should get one more marginal cold rain/ice shot late week. Then looks like we will transition into a normal March wx wise. Always time for a fluke event to spring up out of nowhere, aka March 93, Feb 28,2004 as the wx Patterns start transitioning to their intra seasonal tumbling,rollover as we head toward the begining of spring. Meanwhile get ready to hear the bullfrogs and see the wild onion and tullips bloom. Only 105 days till Met Summer officially begins. 90/70 with a 15% chance pop up storm. Heat Index 95-97. We get 90 straight+ days . So enjoy this cold rain today .
 
NCSNOW said:
The first 75 Days of met winter will be in the books come Monday. Only about 14 to go. The triad has averaged below normal temp wise the entire stretch and much above normal qpf wise. However in real ville its been one gut punch,face slap after another. Ive never expierenced more low to mid 30 degree rains in my life as this winter. Didnt get skunked, but the pacific has not done us any favors this winter. East of the mtns , you cant survive off -naos and AOs. Mtns,MA can make it work.
We should get one more marginal cold rain/ice shot late week. Then looks like we will transition into a normal March wx wise. Always time for a fluke event to spring up out of nowhere, aka March 93, Feb 28,2004 as the wx Patterns start transitioning to their intra seasonal tumbling,rollover as we head toward the begining of spring. Meanwhile get ready to hear the bullfrogs and see the wild onion and tullips bloom. Only 105 days till Met Summer officially begins. 90/70 with a 15% chance pop up storm. Heat Index 95-97. We get 90 straight+ days . So enjoy this cold rain today .
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The only other winter I can remember with this many 35 degree rains for CLT metro was the winter of 2003-04. Even though we had scored in the “Super CAD” event in January, there were so many times that year that we were getting cold rain while north of I-40 into Virginia was scoring big... then of course came 2/26-27. For east of the mountains to score now, it’s obviously going to take something like that with seasonal pattern transitions.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gotta be Fookin kidding me that evolution at the end of the euro was headed a direction I don’t like for March warmth View attachment 74572
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I was going to say the end of the euro actually looked fairly good as heights are rising on the west coast .. maybe we can get some good pushes of arctic air down here ... they won’t be blocked up since -NAO is gone but hell give me a FOOKIN anafront for all I care #eastofmountainslivesmatter
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I was going to say the end of the euro actually looked fairly good as heights are rising on the west coast .. maybe we can get some good pushes of arctic air down here ... they won’t be blocked up since -NAO is gone but hell give me a FOOKIN anafront for all I care #eastofmountainslivesmatter
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After looking at that, I pulled up the indicies on the NOAA site and the Euro actually appears fairly lined with it. The AO, after briefly going positive this week looks to take another dive and become strongly negative again, the NAO looks to be weak positive for a few days and then go weak negative, the PNA looks to be around neutral at this timeframe, and the MJO looks to still be in phase 7 but back down to a lower amp again. Certainly seems unusual for a Niña. Usually when the pattern flips to milder, that’s it... of course this has not been a normal Niña
 
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