Before the bodies at the bottom of the cliff get piled to high, let’s remember how the models have tended to go the last couple months. Every time in this time range that models have shown the SER flexing and the southeast getting flooded with warm air, we’ve seen within several days it become more muted as the blocking in Canada pushes everything further south. 6 days ago, I was supposed to be getting a high close to 70 today, yet I’ll probably top out in the low 50s. 3 days ago, next Tuesday and Wednesday we’re expected to be very mild with high well into the 60s for most of the Carolinas yet even now my backyard is now looking at upper 40s to lower 50s both days. If you look, that big block is still up there. The big difference now is that there legitimate Arctic cold in Canada to tap into and push down. I’m not saying that what the Euro showed can’t or won’t happen. I’m just simply pointing out what the tendency has been all winter, and as we’ve seen over the last few years, the tendencies of the winter have won out more often than not.
Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
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Why tomorrow? We have temperature verification problems even 72 hours out?
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This probably belongs in the whamby thread. But anyways, As disappointing and heartbreaking it is for the models to trend away from a winter storm the Southeast, Atleast hopefully we won't have to deal with yet another cold rain event. If models keep trending the PV more westward within the next 12-36 hours, maybe we might have a good chance at getting severe weather and nice temperatures instead of another cold rain event follow very cold/dry weather ,which becomes very boring and depressing after a while. The Euro and the UKmet might be best scenario out of the all of the 12z models since both of that the Euro an UKmet keep us on the warm side of the storm.
EPS already looks markedly worse thru 72 hr or better if you want warmer weather
I wish I had the strength to ignore models between day 4-7, this happens every single time.....days 7-10 we had 4 models all agree on the same general thing, days 4-8 and its straight up circus time with literally any possible outcome happening, causing much cliff diving, then sometime later tomorrow they will run another monster SE hit and we will all start the cycle over again......I gonna stay glass half full and predict I see no less than 6" of wintery precip next weekend.....
I really don’t know how we can dump legit cold in the east anymore and have it stay (vortex/TPV) it’s literally impossible, I remember back in the 1800s -NAOs would trap us under 512dm heights for a few days, nowadays a west based -NAO keeps your trough out west, LMFAO
Looks worse than the GEFS at day 5. Good news I would rather it go to pot now and lose a winter storm to a last sec NW trend.
I should note...this is a bad trend for central NC. This might be good for places further west.
I should note...this is a bad trend for central NC. This might be good for places further west.
Who needs the silly Europeans and Goofus models when we have the JMA, Korean, and Chinese models to hug? Heck, our players are over on the other side of the Pacific right now anyway! ?
You know this will just translate (settle) into cold rain. It keeps happening and no real reason for it to stop now. Like a mediocre basketball season. Can continue to hope but our overall winter this year is seemingly being just what we thought it is
Lmao this trough south of Alaska might interact w/ our vortex and pull it even further west. Please for the love of god do it, gimme warm weather
This 100 percent... look at the event that some folks will be getting tomorrow night and Sunday, 4 days ago it was completely gone with no chance of coming back. Even with the bad model runs of the last 24 hours, the CPC is still continuing to talk about this potential and NWS field offices throughout the south are beginning to include it in their discussion. Obviously they see something and they’re the ones with the years of experience, knowledge, and education to do what they’re doing. I look at models because to me it’s a fun hobby...for them it’s their livelihood
Absolutely agree with this right here. It is fairly easy to look at the mess displayed on the globals right now and think this is trending in the wrong direction. However, we have to come to terms with the fact that biases on these models change over the course of time with upgrades/updates and, on a shorter scale, with pattern changes like the strato warming event last month. Coronavirus and the lack of aviation data could have also hurt accuracy over the past year or even the fact that we haven't seen a consistent DJF -NAO in decade...we don't necessarily know.
However, it seems as if the bias this winter has been over-amplifying the southeastern ridge in the 3-6 day range fairly consistently. If i had a dollar for every 200 hr+ cold push that got pulled back in the medium range, I'd be a rich man. I expect the madness and depression to continue for another couple of days until we slowly start to pull back on the SER.
Agreed! Last second screw jobs are the worst kind of painful! I can still remember a rant by Lookout over on the old talk weather board when everyone was getting the goods and we suffered a leeside warm nose screw job from just south of Athens ga up towards habersham co. Last minute pain hurts the worst!! We will accept our screw job now and save further pain?.....sorry for the banter!
Just got to laugh...last time I believe a set of models after day 5.
Well, to be fair...the EURO OP has had some wild swings on the runs lately. Not as big as that one....lol but it was consistent for a few runs then went back and forth starting with yesterdays 12z run. So now, 3 inconsistent runs in a row.
It may very well for a lot of folks on this board, myself included. All I’m saying that is different this time is that for the first time this winter, legit Arctic air is available to tap into and there is a fairly good snowpack up north as well.
All joking aside....to his point one thing I’ve learned over years is if CPC and local NWS are discussing publicly they feel pretty confident re what they’re knowing/seeing. I’ve griped many times abt ffcs reluctance to acknowledge probabilities I felt were strong. In most cases they were mum/conservative for a reason. This being obviously the opposite scenario. They’re leaking tidbits so folks aren’t totally blindsided bc I’m betting they’re seeing a bit of “writing on the wall” so to speak for a potentially impactful scenario. No guarantees obv but I think there dialogue is very telling this early.
The fact that he’s saying that should give everyone some pause. One thing that I’ve seen over the years from both him and Matthew East (when he used to do his videos) is that they are both very good at pointing out different biases and tendencies in model and why they show what they show.