Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[Myfrotho704_]

What a weird upper air pattern lol, don’t know if I’ve ever seen a TPV shoved into CONUS like that that can’t move

 

[LickWx]

What a weird upper air pattern lol, don’t know if I’ve ever seen a TPV shoved into CONUS like that that can’t move View attachment 70353View attachment 70354

Its weird to see it so flat and not amplified or digging much as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Its weird to see it so flat and not amplified or digging much as well.

I guess it’s not digging much/flat because it’s feeling the pull from lower heights in the Atlantic/trying to evacuate out into that weakness

 

[KyloG]

Whoever complains about this pattern belongs in the box of shame.

 

[packfan98]

 

[deltadog03]

I think the pattern looks good. We have a continuous feed of low level cold if that look is right.

 

[iGRXY]

Weird to see the TPV just halt the way the models are trying to do. I don't know if I believe that would happen.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This still looks pretty good, just not as cold.

 

[Shawn]

If you don't want cold and dry, the eps isn't bad.

 

[packfan98]

Weird to see the TPV just halt the way the models are trying to do. I don't know if I believe that would happen.

Maybe the models are trying to work out a split flow pattern that's been hinted at? We will probably see some more strange looks the next few days.

 

[packfan98]

If you don't want cold and dry, the eps isn't bad.

Warm and wet?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Warm and wet?

 

[Shawn]

Warm and wet?

I think it can be productive, especially for the Upper South. IDK at this point for I-20, lol.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Warm and wet?

?

 

[iGRXY]

I think it can be productive, especially for the Upper South. IDK at this point for I-20, lol.

I'd say Northern Mississippi, Northern Alabama, North Georgia, Upstate SC, and the western 2/3rd of North Carolina look good to see some kind of wintry weather at some point in the next 7-10 days.

 

[packfan98]

I think it can be productive, especially for the Upper South. IDK at this point for I-20, lol.

Yeah, we are in the game unlike many years recently where winter is over by mid-February.

 

[Mitch West]

I think it can be productive, especially for the Upper South. IDK at this point for I-20, lol.

Pattern supports very productive cold rains, with a possible 45 min onset ice event.

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 70364View attachment 70365

The precip map is hinting at Gulf activity, which is good. Need the cold core more east up top. As I said yesterday, I think the odds for a cold and dry pattern are fairly low. We know that when it comes to it, the arctic press will not be as robust as the models have been showing. I highly doubt that a 1055+ HP will drop into the US. But we don't want the core to drop into the western US and then slowly bleed east, while moderating, either.

The pattern will remain active, most likely. My guess is that unless the models completely back away from the cold solutions, then we will see an active pattern meet up with a cold air mass, moving over a nice snow pack to the north, setting the stage for a winter storm for many in the SE. Timing would seem to be after next weekend.

I hope that much of it can be snow, but that's impossible to know right now.

 

[whizrtr]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The precip map is hinting at Gulf activity, which is good. Need the cold core more east up top. As I said yesterday, I think the odds for a cold and dry pattern are fairly low. We know that when it comes to it, the arctic press will not be as robust as the models have been showing. I highly doubt that a 1055+ HP will drop into the US. But we don't want the core to drop into the western US and then slowly bleed east, while moderating, either.

The pattern will remain active, most likely. My guess is that unless the models completely back away from the cold solutions, then we will see an active pattern meet up with a cold air mass, moving over a nice snow pack to the north, setting the stage for a winter storm for many in the SE.

I hope that much of it can be snow, but that's impossible to know right now.

Yeah my worries with this sort of pattern is having cold air at the surface but not enough aloft resulting in ice (tons of GEFS members show that) but yeah like you said it’s wayyy to early to sort out that that type of stuff