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Pattern Winter 2020/2021 Model Archive

12z Euro 2/4
The largest Ice storm that I have seen on a model!

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

I sense a chance of a bust today on the high end. Forecast is mid 40s. Currently, mid 40s and it looks like places to the south are running warmer. Maybe 60? Probably too hopeful but hey, the 60s made it to Fredricksburg VA yesterday! Suns playing peekaboo with me here. Lets get 50!
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1612440000-1613088000-1613260800-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-se-snow_72hr-3304000.pngecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-snow_72hr-3304000.pngecmwf-deterministic-se-frzr_total-3304000.png
 
00z Euro 2/5
Big Ice storm!

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

Nina or Nino we know we can get snow with both. Sure with Nina it’s harder but just like this year look at Texas and the mid south. Sure we sucked here In the southeast but even here in upstate sc we got snow 1-4 inch event north of 85. So my point is even in non conducive patterns it’s only...
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1612483200-1613239200-1613347200-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-se-snow_72hr-3347200.pngecmwf-deterministic-se-frzr_total-3347200.png
 
00z GFS 2/18

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

Feb recap Avg Hi: 53.7F (-3.3F) Avg Lo: 35.4F (+0.4F) Avg Temp: 44.6F (-1.4F) Max: 74F Min: 24F Monthly rain: 4.84” (+0.87”) YTD rain: 9.27” (+1.48”) This brings me to -0.9F for DJF, which I’ll gladly take given the past several winters. Dec -0.5F Jan +1.0F Feb -1.4F
southernwx.com
(1/2) @metwannabe special
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-instant_ptype-1613606400-1614308400-1614373200-40.gifgfs-deterministic-carolinas-snow_12hr-4330000.png
(2/2)
More of SE storm
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1613606400-1614751200-1614859200-40.gif
gfs-deterministic-se-snow_48hr-4859200.png
 
12z GFS 2/18
Big dog NC storm!

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

Feb recap Avg Hi: 53.7F (-3.3F) Avg Lo: 35.4F (+0.4F) Avg Temp: 44.6F (-1.4F) Max: 74F Min: 24F Monthly rain: 4.84” (+0.87”) YTD rain: 9.27” (+1.48”) This brings me to -0.9F for DJF, which I’ll gladly take given the past several winters. Dec -0.5F Jan +1.0F Feb -1.4F
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-nc-instant_ptype-1613649600-1614319200-1614416400-40.gif0202903f-cbcb-4dc2-8c92-29c58040fbd5.gif

gfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_10to1-4459600.png
 
00z Euro 2/19

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

Feb recap Avg Hi: 53.7F (-3.3F) Avg Lo: 35.4F (+0.4F) Avg Temp: 44.6F (-1.4F) Max: 74F Min: 24F Monthly rain: 4.84” (+0.87”) YTD rain: 9.27” (+1.48”) This brings me to -0.9F for DJF, which I’ll gladly take given the past several winters. Dec -0.5F Jan +1.0F Feb -1.4F
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-nc-instant_ptype-1613692800-1614340800-1614405600-40.gif
ecmwf-deterministic-nc-total_snow_10to1-4427200.png
 
18z GFS 2/19

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

Feb recap Avg Hi: 53.7F (-3.3F) Avg Lo: 35.4F (+0.4F) Avg Temp: 44.6F (-1.4F) Max: 74F Min: 24F Monthly rain: 4.84” (+0.87”) YTD rain: 9.27” (+1.48”) This brings me to -0.9F for DJF, which I’ll gladly take given the past several winters. Dec -0.5F Jan +1.0F Feb -1.4F
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-nc-instant_ptype-1613757600-1614319200-1614394800-40.gifgfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_kuchera-4394800.pnggfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-4330000.pnggfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-4330000.png
 
00z Euro 2/20

Pattern - Flaming Feb 2021

Feb recap Avg Hi: 53.7F (-3.3F) Avg Lo: 35.4F (+0.4F) Avg Temp: 44.6F (-1.4F) Max: 74F Min: 24F Monthly rain: 4.84” (+0.87”) YTD rain: 9.27” (+1.48”) This brings me to -0.9F for DJF, which I’ll gladly take given the past several winters. Dec -0.5F Jan +1.0F Feb -1.4F
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-nc-instant_ptype-1613779200-1614340800-1614448800-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-nc-total_snow_10to1-4448800.png
 
00z Euro 2/27
Close to a large storm, yet so far.

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

I did say barely. Still a lot of blank members. Let’s see where it goes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Fair enough. Hey, like @Ron Burgundy said this upcoming March does kinda feel like we could get a decent event for areas that have missed out over the last few years, NGA and the...
southernwx.com
ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1614384000-1615032000-1615140000-40.gifecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-5118400.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5032000.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-5032000.png
 
06z Parallel GFS 2/27
Big dog across much of the ESE!

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

I did say barely. Still a lot of blank members. Let’s see where it goes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Fair enough. Hey, like @Ron Burgundy said this upcoming March does kinda feel like we could get a decent event for areas that have missed out over the last few years, NGA and the...
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-para-carolinas-instant_ptype-1614405600-1615021200-1615140000-40.gifgfs-deterministic-para-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-5140000.png
 
12z GFS 2/27
Meh Setup

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

I’m honestly worried about this getting squashed and watching a late bloomer That was my concern this morning but seeing the ensembles get more on board at 12/18z I'm worried we find a way to phase or hook it too far NW
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-instant_ptype-1614427200-1615042800-1615129200-40.gifgfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-5161600.png
 
12z Para 2/27
Even bigger storm! February 2004 Redux!

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

This is what most of the 18z models were heading to and my exact worry ? that would be complete bullsh-t if we struggled to get a legit wave, as that’s normally not our worry No need to "worry" if you assume it will be nothing. And it is only wx, regardless. This message is to all "worriers"...
southernwx.com
ezgif-7-d60627dee4e0.gifgfs-deterministic-para-carolinas-total_snow_kuchera-5215600.png

 
12z GFS 3/9
Final Run?

Pattern - Muddy March 2021

I just came across this gem from the Fayetteville Observer (Fayetteville, NC) dated April 29, 1858. I didn't even think it could snow that late in April down here in Fayetteville (granted much cooler climate back then too). "Great Snow Storm - It was snowing rapidly when our paper went to press...
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-instant_ptype-1615291200-1616500800-1616608800-40.gifgfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-6608800.png
 
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