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Pattern Winter 2020/2021 Model Archive

00z GFS 1/3
A bit of an inland cutter across the SE.

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

I know that I said that no 50/50 low is trivial at this point, but if we can’t get one as we get closer in range, we’re screwed. micro adjustments work for East Tennessee.. I'm moving around some funds for futures bets.
southernwx.com
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12z GFS 1/3
Big dog paste bomb! The GFS is on board!

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

850s below 0 for pretty much all of NC from hour 300 through end of run on GFS. Guess that is a start.
southernwx.com
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Ensembles: Huge Increase!

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

I'm planning on heading back to Raleigh for school sometime around the 10th, though I can wait a few days longer. It sure would be nice to sneak in something before I have to go willfully degrade my snow chances. You might want to be farther east if we get something like the Euro
southernwx.com
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12z Euro 1/3
Another Big dog! Alignment!

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

so glad we’re not looking at this in the LR like I thought we would be a month or so ago at this time But we’re looking at this instead Lmao literally the exact opposite. Gosh we suck at seasonal forecasting...
southernwx.com
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Another Storm for the Western SE. (2/2)

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

so glad we’re not looking at this in the LR like I thought we would be a month or so ago at this time But we’re looking at this instead Lmao literally the exact opposite. Gosh we suck at seasonal forecasting...
southernwx.com
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Ensembles:

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

Wennie run long range??
southernwx.com
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12z Euro 1/4 (1/2)

Wintry - January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Clown maps show it but the soundings don't support it By the CMC's standards, that's a big mid-level warm nose which probably means the rain-snow line will be further NW than shown. All comes down to track. Cmc ticked north through Dolly Parton country. Even with a futher south track under...
southernwx.com
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EPS:
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Second storm! (2/2)

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

To show what @Webberweather53 fully expected would occur with the then much weaker GEFS as regards the SSW, check this out: GEFS Run from 5 day ago for 6Z on 1/4/21: Now look at today's 12Z GEFS for 1/4/21 at 6Z...
southernwx.com
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00z NAM 1/5
Much of SC and North Georgia get Nam'd

January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety Well you would have to think that if anything like the frontogenesis band that the NAM just...
southernwx.com
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06z GFS 1/5
Three storms! (1/3)
First system:

gfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_10to1-0204400.png
Second system Miller A:

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

In the heart of January with that low track it should be a freaking winter storm! But like @DarkKnight said it's a good look for 8-9 days out Mind boggling. Low placement is great. Well on the bright the northwest trend won’t sting quite as bad. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
southernwx.com
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Third system Big Dog @Webberweather53 already posted: (3/3)

Pattern - January 2021 - Joyless January

In the heart of January with that low track it should be a freaking winter storm! But like @DarkKnight said it's a good look for 8-9 days out Mind boggling. Low placement is great. Well on the bright the northwest trend won’t sting quite as bad. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
southernwx.com
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1609826400-1611079200-1611208800-40.gifgfs-deterministic-se-snow_72hr-1165600.png
Totals the entire run!
gfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_kuchera-1165600.pnggfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_kuchera-1165600.pnggfs-deterministic-alms-total_snow_kuchera-1165600.png
H5 is beautiful!gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1165600.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1165600.png
 
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