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Pattern Muddy March 2021

0Z EPS follows suit with more mainly offshore although this does suggest a few members giving especially near the coast decent precip. Is there any wintry precip on these members? Anyone have the individual members? TIA

ecmen_00_ps_us_hr-0048_0198.png

Sub 1004 mb surface low tracks: there's still a handful close enough to give at least some of the coast precip

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EPS is suppressed albeit barely, not a bad place to be this far out. I have my reservations about suppression given the time of the year, it would be one thing if it was January or early February, but late in the first week of March these air masses don't have the same potency and potential to suppress storms to a similar degree. I think we're gonna need all we can get.
 
GFS & GEFS bring in the Dry cold..

Swing & Miss..

Though a Couple GEFS ensemble panel Members Do have a Coastal solution(s)

Need a slight NW trend, NOT much of one, for Us Coastal folks.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Im glad its south, not north. We are in good shape.
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Models are showing more a sheared system as it moves east. That's different than the system being too far south. Maybe models will start showing the system again, but really most of us need a miracle within the next 24-72 hours.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Models are showing more a sheared system as it moves east. That's different than the system being too far south. Maybe models will start showing the system again, but really most of us need a miracle within the next 24-72 hours.
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These waves usually amp once they get directly sampled over N America. Shearing out a wave in early-mid March is a lot different and arguably harder than DJF because the background flow is slower and the air masses aren’t as cold. It’s definitely not going to take a miracle to get this to come back north, we would need some small changes to make it happen for us
 
Webberweather53 said:
These waves usually amp once they get directly sampled over N America. Shearing out a wave in early-mid March is a lot different and arguably harder than DJF because the background flow is slower and the air masses aren’t as cold. It’s definitely not going to take a miracle to get this to come back north, we would need some small changes to make it happen for us
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Exhibit A
gfs_z500a_us_fh60_trend (1).gif
 
Honestly my fear for a sheared wave is dwindling, Not a bad look for this range as all waves this year have seemingly been more amped as they get sampled on the west coast (those changes have also impacted us negatively) but in the case it would be a positive
For example the @metwannabe special
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The CMC was real close though perhaps too warm for many. It backed off of the deep eastern trough quite a bit (surprise, surprise).
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Yeah, cold biased CMC is clearly too warm for wintry precip as is the cold biased ICON, which isn’t even close on temps where there is rain.

12Z GEFS says no wintry also.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, cold biased CMC is clearly too warm for wintry precip as is the cold biased ICON, which isn’t even close on temps where there is rain.

12Z GEFS says no wintry also.
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Any wintry precip would likely be confined to NC/perhaps the upstate of SC per climo, especially the mountains/foothills/northern piedmont, not impossible outside those areas.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly my fear for a sheared wave is dwindling, Not a bad look for this range as all waves this year have seemingly been more amped as they get sampled on the west coast (those changes have also impacted us negatively) but in the case it would be a positive
For example the @metwannabe special
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Even if it gets more amped, I don’t see how this temp profile will cut it for central NC (and if anything, more amped wave = warmer air)

1614531406996.png
 
ajr said:
Even if it gets more amped, I don’t see how this temp profile will cut it for central NC (and if anything, more amped wave = warmer air)

View attachment 77281
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Well yesterday we were getting more amped solutions and we see how those runs worked out.
That’s a profile that could easily be cooled dynamically to fwiw if you add precipitation
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Any wintry precip would likely be confined to NC/perhaps the upstate of SC per climo, especially the mountains/foothills/northern piedmont, not impossible outside those areas.
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Yes, of course not impossible there or even further south, but even most of there it is unlikely as of now per models. Cold biased models are not even close at 12Z.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, cold biased CMC is clearly too warm for wintry precip as is the cold biased ICON, which isn’t even close on temps where there is rain.

12Z GEFS says no wintry also.
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You take every model very face value don’t you ? I like to use them more generally and like tools that help u try and find the right answer .. we always like to say this is biased here and this is biased there but honestly the ICON has been warm and cold biased before with multiple systems .. cmc has been too warm or too cold .. Gfs amplifies the wave then it doesn’t... point of the matter is that no model is right they are just puzzle pieces
 
GaWx said:
Indeed. But this could also just mean the much loved colder rain.
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When you have a PV lobe sitting on top of eastern Canada/Northern New England, you take the chance with the phase especially in March where that's going to be the only way you can really get snow in this regime....high risk, high reward scenario.
 
For example, here WHY we need a amped wave, those runs we were getting yesterday had a amped Bowling ball, and yet there was still snow with those runs, that’s a helluva TPV in Canada lol with plenty of cold especially aloft 9DE7D788-639E-4DB6-ADB6-7C34632FA5DB.png469FCA71-8B02-40FC-B7A4-F12D65FC69F2.png
here’s what we have now, a sheared peiceofshit E3FE3EEC-6C4D-4027-97D3-65133AF77381.pngI’m not concerned about a amped wave if it tracks around I-20-south
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
You take every model very face value don’t you ? I like to use them more generally and like tools that help u try and find the right answer .. we always like to say this is biased here and this is biased there but honestly the ICON has been warm and cold biased before with multiple systems .. cmc has been too warm or too cold .. Gfs amplifies the wave then it doesn’t... point of the matter is that no model is right they are just puzzle pieces
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CMC is clearly a cold biased model when averaged out. I’m pretty sure ICON is also. If models that usually are colder than verification are much too warm, that doesn’t bode well for wintry precip chances. I’m just reporting on what I see and refuse to describe it with rose colored glasses, which just leads to still more disappointment and some folks later getting pissed off.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
When you have a PV lobe sitting on top of eastern Canada/Northern New England, you take the chance with the phase especially in March where that's going to be the only way you can really get snow in this regime....high risk, high reward scenario.
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I agree that would increase the chance, especially for NC, but current models are saying the chances are low.
King is next.
 
Do we have a poster name TJ? If so this has your name on it.
gfs_asnow_seus_14.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For example, here WHY we need a amped wave, those runs we were getting yesterday had a amped Bowling ball, and yet there was still snow with those runs, that’s a helluva TPV in Canada lol with plenty of cold especially aloft View attachment 77285View attachment 77284
here’s what we have now, a sheared peiceofshit View attachment 77286
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So basically for many of us, we need something kind of what the 12 Z GFSV16 run was showing yesterday? The Wave being amped up enough for to not track far off the coast and low Deeping bring in the cold, but not too amped up to the point where it tracks too far north/west and we get mostly rain. I guessing for a huge winter storm here in the Midlands, we need something very similar to what the V16 GFS was showing yesterday around noon hours but maybe around 40-65 miles SE.
 
GaWx said:
I agree that would increase the chance, especially for NC, but current models are saying the chances are low.
King is next.
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I don't think anyone is saying it is 100% going to snow. I think everyone is aware that this is still a longshot(esp for those outside of NC), but there are pieces there for something to potentially occur.
 
Faco Thomas said:
So basically for many of us, we need something kind of what the 12 Z GFSV16 run was showing yesterday? The Wave being amped up enough for to not track far off the coast and low Deeping bring in the cold, but not too amped up to the point where it tracks too far north/west and we get mostly rain. I guessing for a huge winter storm here in the Midlands, we need something very similar to what the V16 GFS was showing yesterday around noon hours but maybe around 40-65 miles SE.
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Probably want a track a bit further south/slightly less amped verbatim around there to reduce any risk of WAA
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I don't think anyone is saying it is 100% going to snow. I think everyone is aware that this is still a longshot(esp for those outside of NC), but there are pieces there for something to potentially occur.
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In reality, what will happen is predestined and therefore can’t change. But models are nowhere near good enough to know. If they were, there would be no forecasting discussions.
 
Minor changes take the cmc/icon/gfs from nothing to large coastal storms. I don't like the trends last night and this morning as a whole but as we know suppressed and sheared at D5-7 usually becomes more consolidated and northwest toward verification
 
Faco Thomas said:
So basically for many of us, we need something kind of what the 12 Z GFSV16 run was showing yesterday? The Wave being amped up enough for to not track far off the coast and low Deeping bring in the cold, but not too amped up to the point where it tracks too far north/west and we get mostly rain. I guessing for a huge winter storm here in the Midlands, we need something very similar to what the V16 GFS was showing yesterday around noon hours but maybe around 40-65 miles SE.
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With the position of the mean trough off the east coast, the least of our concern is the low being amped enough to position itself to where WAA is an issue IMO. We need a bomb. A weak wave just won't cut it because it will be either too warm or sheared apart as most models are doing the last few runs.
 
SD said:
Minor changes take the cmc/icon/gfs from nothing to large coastal storms. I don't like the trends last night and this morning as a whole but as we know suppressed and sheared at D5-7 usually becomes more consolidated and northwest toward verification
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I actually really like we are. Nothing to get my Hope's up and just a change or 2 away from something decent. This far out suppression is always preferred for MBY. If I show snow 5-7days out here its gonna rain here and snow in the triad. Let's keep.this look till Wednesday then start ramping it up.
 
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