Epic fail, I’ve always been more worried about severe wx with this look and stuck to it 
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Table setter for the next one right 
Gotta cut off to it's west, super touchy
NCSNOW
Member
Perfect weather outside. Sunny low to mid 50s. Breeze isnt out of hand. Mowed yard, pressure washed winter mud stains off sidewalk. Got 9 holes after work yesterday. 2 boston butts coming off smoker in 30 mins. Why yall root for 70+ air is beyond me.
Wedges 
50s here all the way down to @pcbjr with clouds/nice NE winds, rain at Hog. Dews in 30s here!
Next 4 days' fcast for us: mainly clear with lows 34-45; highs 58-73; DP 20s-30s here and 30s-40s Hog; Poss frost sun/Mon nites! #Can'tBeatinMar! Models were right!
This will help keep things dormant for awhile here and sure beats highs of 86-7!
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I’m getting scared that HLB blocking returns, if we keep trying to shove TPVs south we’re gonna get a wavebreak >> -NAO again later in the month, lines up with the MJO
In the mean time, stronger SE ridge on the EPS
In the mean time, stronger SE ridge on the EPS
With the MJO moving into phase 2/3 in about 10-12 days, it would certainly make sense to see the NAO go back negative. To get to that, we are gonna a see a great run of spring like weather....it would not shock me at all to see widespread 80s by next Friday and Saturday for the Carolinas then a run severe weather for a couple days after that.
Yep, MJO inside left side of COD now and progged to stay in cooler left side with lots of phase 1 days possibly coming. Phase 1 often chilly. Then if proceeds to 2-3, that’s often chilly, too. JB looking good. Still looking at only a 3-4 day torch early teens of March:
Sucks because we’re probably gonna start cranking out severe weather as we head deeper into met spring with those cooler MJO phases like last year
2 legitimate looks for severe weather 
EPS really likes the second with much more cape on ensembles
EPS really likes the second with much more cape on ensembles
Had some rain and 40 degrees earlier but it is beautiful now. 53 and sunny with a slight breeze. Got some ribs on the smoker now after baseball practice.
That 2nd look is much more threatening for us. The first really seems like it would favor areas to our west
Stormsfury
Member
Interesting explanation for this morning's non-liquid precipitation event..
Not technically sleet ... And this also occurred at the national weather service in Charleston... They could hear it but not really see it.
Not technically sleet ... And this also occurred at the national weather service in Charleston... They could hear it but not really see it.
For the 4th year in a row (2018-21), the coldest Arctic temps are in March. And 2017 was late in Feb.
Per below, temp has dropped very sharply to 244 K. Also, note that Arctic normals are still quite cold with them only 1.5K above THE coldest norm of 242.5 K on Feb 25.
So, the temp dropped to normal for the first time since.....ready for this......August!! See next image showing 2020:
Now, we’ll see if it can drop into BN. Last time appreciably BN way back in early March of 20!
This cold Arctic illustrates well why despite the sun getting higher and higher that we can still get quite cold in March if the air were to shoot down from the Arctic fast enough.
Per below, temp has dropped very sharply to 244 K. Also, note that Arctic normals are still quite cold with them only 1.5K above THE coldest norm of 242.5 K on Feb 25.
So, the temp dropped to normal for the first time since.....ready for this......August!! See next image showing 2020:
Now, we’ll see if it can drop into BN. Last time appreciably BN way back in early March of 20!
This cold Arctic illustrates well why despite the sun getting higher and higher that we can still get quite cold in March if the air were to shoot down from the Arctic fast enough.
This is a look that can get ugly wrt severe, im
Willing to bet the GFS is to progressive and the v16 has a better idea
Willing to bet the GFS is to progressive and the v16 has a better idea
If the wind stays down upper 20s no problem