All eight phases mean no snow for us, so I don’t pay much attention to it, anyways.
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Backed off on the GFS/GEFS, but v16 was a bit colder, hopefully models trend warmer in time !
Before then, remember for March 2nd when the GFS was way colder than the Euro and the GFS had very close calls to ZR whereas the Euro hardly even had any CAD or rain? Well, since then the GFS has warmed some, but the EPS has trended significantly colder, especially with today's Happy Hour run, and now has a full blown CAD with generous QPF (see top map). The 2nd map shows 850s, which are largely in the +3 to +6 C range for the major CAD areas of NC/SC/GA.
Note that with a solid wedge from an Arctic high, 850s of +3 to +6 C are right in the wheelhouse for major SE CAD region ZR events per history. This Arctic high has a cross polar connection and it comes down courtesy of the TPV. Just 3 days earlier (Feb 27) in NW Canada, it has lows in the -40s F, highs in the -30s F, and 850s as cold as -40 C! So this is absolutely frigid air! Also note that there have been a good number of major ZR/IP events ~March 2nd in the SE in history such as 1948, 1960, 1962, and 1980.
So, this is back to a "need to be watched" imo, especially for the major CAD areas, even if it doesn't trend colder than this run. Note that this is now only 5 days out. not in fantasy land. If it were to trend even colder and/or the high trend stronger to, say, 1035 mb or stronger, there could potentially be a more widespread wintry mess on March 2-3, including more IP and maybe even snow in some areas. So, keep your eyes on this for the time being.
****Edited for typo as 850s are +3 to +6 C, not -3 to -6 lol.
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I literally can’t stand this season it’s terrible, I hate it 
There’s the look y’all weenies wanted 
The result is 33 and rain
The result is 33 and rain
Yep, a day late and a dollar short, as always, here in the SE. We always get a good look like this when it's either too early in the winter or too late.
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So depressing 
As shown, 0Z Icon (and 18Z and I think 12Z Icon) and 18Z Euro have a ZR threat now for 3/2-3. Although cold biases always need to be kept in mind, this potentially may be a real deal considering how cold the origins of this Arctic high are.
Icon has been way to aggressive with LLVL cold in wedges lately, that’s probably more like 33-36 and rain
I wonder what 850s/925s were on the icon, honestly not far from a snow look per H5
It's probably close but the timing is likely too late and the deamplifying wave doesn't help either
Just 500mb and surface temps maps that show what the US would look like in each mjo phase by month, then in biweekly segments, then by enso phase during those time periods. then add in a few other variables. It would certainly be interesting to see where those have us going if we do get an mjo progression from P7-1
Probably fairly close to average unless you drop rain or clouds in. That big gyre though could be problematic for any warm-up if it stayed around. On the bright side the op Euro was in the bottom 10% of the suite with the cold shot at days 9-10
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
When it comes to temps, if you're sad then I'm happy. Bring it!
