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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Myfrotho704_ said:
This is what most of the 18z models were heading to and my exact worry ? that would be complete bullsh-t if we struggled to get a legit wave, as that’s normally not our worry View attachment 77223
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No need to "worry" if you assume it will be nothing. And it is only wx, regardless. This message is to all "worriers" about this.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This -NAO came out of nowhere and is around -2 sigma, pretty solid View attachment 77225
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These WxBell Euro indices are almost always overdone for daily NAO/AO. They're often double or more reality, whether + or 1. For example, look at the current NAO on this WxBell chart: ~+1.5. In reality today was only +0.64 per this:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

I trust this way more:

nao.sprd2.gif

If it goes negative, it won't be anywhere near -2. Mark my words. I'll verify this then and see if I am right.
 
GaWx said:
These WxBell Euro indices are almost always overdone for daily NAO/AO. They're often double or more reality, whether + or 1. For example, look at the current NAO on this WxBell chart: ~+1.5. In reality today was only +0.64 per this:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

I trust this way more:

View attachment 77229

If it goes negative, it won't be anywhere near -2. Mark my words. I'll verify this then and see if I am right.
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Might have different criteria’s however over a different area, the overall look on a H5 map is a impressive Greenland ridge, I wonder why there so different
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Might have different criteria’s however over a different area, the overall look on a H5 map is a impressive Greenland ridge, I wonder why there so different
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I've seen this discussed on the boards before. I believe they are calculated differently but I'm not sure what the differences are
 
I mean to be honest we do need the NW trend here and if we get it like we do usually always .. this could have some good cold air to work with
 
I’m not a fan of trying to make N/S work, at the end of the day the more likely solution with that is squash squash squashed, get back to a amped S/S cutoff and I’m interested, the more likely solution right now is nothing
 
LovingGulfLows said:
You know what's crazy....those model runs showing coastal snow in the Carolinas might not be so crazy after all. They can benefit with a late coastal phase and have just enough cold air for backside snow.
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Good point as that's often how you get them but those things are rare, regardless. So, due to the rarity, probably they're still crazy imo. But I'm not 100% sure of that just yet.
 
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How many times must we see models have a deep trough in the day 5-7 range only to back way off inside of 5 days to not buy into such a deep eastern trough at this range?
 
Shaggy said:
Rather it be to dry and south of me at this range than being in the jackpot already.
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Agreed as NW trend is fairly common due to cold pattern biases of models. And you're in a place that can easily get snow in early March.
 
Can already tell the E US trough will be deeper on 0Z Euro.
 
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