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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

There may be another storm after that as the +PNA finally builds with energy expected to rush south with the trough.

Edit: Nope, not fast enough.
 
Snowfan said:
I'm not worried about it right now but if the Euro looks like the GFS, I will be worried.
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I don’t think there is any reason to worry about any op run this far out. Focus on the signal that the ensembles have. Op runs will definitely waffle back and forth the next few days... I was shocked that the GFS had the 3 consecutive runs that it did
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t think there is any reason to worry about any op run this far out. Focus on the signal that the ensembles have. Op runs will definitely waffle back and forth the next few days... I was shocked that the GFS had the 3 consecutive runs that it did
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I'm not that worried because the GFS has a bias of being too fast with waves in s/w. As long as the esembles has that signal, I won't be worried. Let's see what the King of No says this afternoon.
 
Still Ice for many . headed towards mid February this is when people get ugly if something doesn’t show for their backyard . Play nice or you will sit out until whatever storm next weeks passes . It’s not a threat , it’s reality
b732e0faa90f7e82bf3dc72580d5dec7.jpg



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This is the change we need to see on the models w/ the vortex at around day 6 to get a big storm just after the 10th, it's actually not a big one esp in light of how much things changed in the northern stream for our 27-28th storm. I know it can seem insurmountable because the sfc looks like crap and warm for many, but we're basically sitting on a very large, elongated frontal boundary, even small tweaks to the large-scale flow will lead to insane sensible wx changes. We still have 2.5-3 days ish to make this change happen or at least get closer, plenty of time left folks

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Large, Widespread SE US overunning events day -3 1970-2020.gif
 
Ollie Williams said:
The n/s on the CMC is in the ideal place, however, the PNA screws the system up.
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The GFS tried to send a similarly large PV lobe over Manitoba w/ our 27-28th storm north into Nunavut even 5 days out & most models held it back too long, curious what happens here in a few days once it gets sampled better and completes a few interactions w/ other adjacent PV lobes.
 
V16 was a little more favourable with the cold press. Verbatim a significant ice storm for central western N Carolina.
 
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