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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

From winter to summer as is more often the case with our warmer planet:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
0512 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2021

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SAVANNAH GA

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86 WAS SET AT SAVANNAH GA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1997.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The 86 was only 1 cooler than the monthly record of 87, set on 2/25/2018. The last 3 Febs have had 86 for the warmest. This was our 3rd day in a row of 82+. The good news is that even assuming 80+ tomorrow, which is forecasted, we will end up with only 4 days of 80+ this month vs 6+ 80+ highs the prior 4 Febs.

The forecasts from just a few hours prior keep missing the highs by several or more degrees. I blame that on the persistent cold bias of most models.

Fortunately, March 2nd+ is looking much cooler with hopefully no more 80s for a week+ after tomorrow's expected low 80s and March 1, which I'm guessing will exceed 80 as the forecast for upper 70s looks too cool (CHS keeps missing too low) and models are warming as per the usual.
 
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Can we get a shower today? Might as well beat the record.

RAH:
The front will slowly lift northward today, and any widely scattered
showers should move out of the forecast area by early afternoon.
Rainfall amounts will be light, generally on the order of a few
hundredths of an inch. Whether RDU gets the 0.02" necessary to tie
the record for wettest meteorological winter on record (or the 0.03"
necessary to beat it) is still up for debate but it will be close
no doubt.
 
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50F, Fog/Mist. Will we hit the forecast of 68. I have my doubts. ?‍♂️
 
Started at 57, dense Fog, It's burned off in the last hour, Calm winds...
currently 66F, Forecast high of 74F..
 
Looks like we might have a quick shot at some severe t'storms over the next few hours.

Meanwhile, current temp is 73*F.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Looks like we might have a quick shot at some severe t'storms over the next few hours.

Meanwhile, current temp is 73*F.
Click to expand...

1614529024031.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Areas affected...northeast Texas through southeast Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 281559Z - 281730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity by late morning into the afternoon. Primary threats will
be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a tornado or
two will also be possible. A WW will likely be needed before 17Z.

DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a cold front extends from eastern OK
through north central and west central TX. An isolated thunderstorm
with mid-level updraft rotation has developed on the front and is
located just east of Gainesville with another isolated storm near
Mineral Wells. The downstream warm sector is already moderately
unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE supported by upper 60s F
dewpoints and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Further
destabilization will occur, but will be limited to some degree by
widespread multi-layer clouds. Weak, progressive impulses embedded
within the southwesterly upper flow regime and forcing along the
cold front will contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage
later this morning as the boundary layer slowly warms. The primary
low-level jet has shifted east of this region resulting in small 0-1
km hodographs. However, a belt of strong southwesterly winds
increasing to around 70 kt at 500 mb resides above the warm sector
and is contributing to 60+ kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some
storms should organize with supercells and bowing segments likely,
eventually consolidating into a dominant linear mode. Large hail and
isolated damaging wind will be the main threats. The small low-level
hodographs should tend to limit overall tornado threat. However, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Dial/Hart.. 02/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32559772 33599665 34899484 34329358 31909679 31859817
32559772
 
Noon was already up to 81 at KSAV. As is no surprise, the NWS bumped up the highs for the next two days as models have been too cold. Going for mid 80s for today, which would put it near yesterday’s 86, and low 80s tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have another mid 80s tomorrow. Then Tuesday thankfully much cooler arrives.
 
70s in about half of wake county then 60s around airport of course . They picked that airport on purpose , to have the cooled snowiest possible averages lol. Mid 60s here but mid 70s 10 minute drive from my house . Still think we get 70s but man it’s pushing 80 in Fayetteville wtf man. What is it with CAD, the foothills have 0 CAD but places further from the mountains do . Also think tomorrow has big over performing potential as is typical in these setups .
 
Seeing upper 60s just 2 miles south of airport . So it’s eroding fast rn at least as warm front is north of us now .
 
Asheville hit 70s in January and now they may get mid 70s today. This year is definitely unusual. 850s support some 80s in the lowlands if it’s mid 70s in Asheville today. Of course CAD has been incredibly potent this year as well.
 
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