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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Nina or Nino we know we can get snow with both. Sure with Nina it’s harder but just like this year look at Texas and the mid south. Sure we sucked here In the southeast but even here in upstate sc we got snow 1-4 inch event north of 85. So my point is even in non conducive patterns it’s only takes one system.


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Wild Weather Monger said:
That low needs to be modeled in Cancun at this range. And considering the original "King Kong" was once modeled there, perhaps Blue Fields and we'd be in business here in the 40 degrees and rain capitol of the world.
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Yeah......I’m a weather fan, happy for everyone to “get there’s” but for our area east of Atl to Athens.....we’ve basically had a run of winter suck for a decade....this slop is not enjoyable even if it is “the only weather we’ve got”. I’d honestly been holding out hope to pull off something in March .....maybe an ULL like 2009. Seems that’s about our only hope if any at all. Other side of me is just ready to fling the towel in the ring and prepare to sweat until mid November. Ughhhhhh......I see why that guy from the talk weather board days broke down and moved to the very tip of Northern Maine?
 
SD said:
As of today probably a Nina. We need to get forcing out of the IO next winter. Chances are we aren't going to get the same magnitude of HLB so we will need help
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I'm a MJO believer much more now though. Without a 7, 8 or 1 we have a tough sled here east of the mtns in the SE to get decent snow. Need a pumped pna too.
 
CaryWx said:
I'm a MJO believer much more now though. Without a 7, 8 or 1 we have a tough sled here east of the mtns in the SE to get decent snow. Need a pumped pna too.
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I think what hurt us most in the Carolinas the last couple weeks wasn’t necessarily the phase the MJO was in, but how amped it got. It was most inside COD or very low amped most of the winter until we got into early February. I think if we had seen a much lower amped MJO these last two weeks, most of the Carolinas probably would have scored.
 
GaWx said:
I recommend folks take the 0Z GFS silliness in the day 12+ period showing a huge PV sinking well SE into E Canada with a gigantic grain. Nice cartoon but that's all it is.
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I strongly recommend taking any operational model outside 120 hours with a giant pile of salt. Heck even the ensembles haven’t been performing too well of late.
 
GaWx said:
Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS has gone colder for late Feb and suggests the SER won't really have a chance to take control the rest of Feb at least. But who knows if it is right? I don't trust any of them.
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Trust is low but one thing we are used to this winter is the warm pattern getting wiped away as we come closer towards the medium to short range ... also let’s not discount the Gfs storm it shows ... not only does it have ICON support but also CMC support ... haven’t checked the euro yet but it looks to be at least a time frame to watch ... for something
 
GaWx said:
Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS has gone colder for late Feb and suggests the SER won't really have a chance to take control the rest of Feb at least. But who knows if it is right? I don't trust any of them.
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I went from 50s on Sunday and Monday to 40s and 30s with rain snow mix. This winter from the beginning on the models has been constantly showing warmth that just hasn’t verified in reality it seems.
 
Looking at the system for Friday it’s already trended massively further north . As in hundreds of miles NW. went from a strung out system over the Atlantic to severe weather across the Deep South and CAD here. Give me 2 more trends like that.
 
We’re entering that part of our winter climo late Feb/early Mar where snows become even more infrequent than earlier in the season, but the proportion of big dogs is very high. Majority of the time we end up with nothing in this period, but if it does snow, we are far more likely to get a really big storm at this time of the season.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’re entering that part of our winter climo late Feb/early Mar where snows become even more infrequent than earlier in the season, but the proportion of big dogs is very high. Majority of the time we end up with nothing in this period, but if it does snow, we are far more likely to get a really big storm at this time of the season.
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I’ve always been curious about this. Is just because there is a better chance to get more moisture?? During my lifetime... two of the three biggest recorded snowfalls at CLT occurred after 2/20... 2/26-27/2004 (13.2”) and 3/24/1983 (10.3”)
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve always been curious about this. Is just because there is a better chance to get more moisture?? During my lifetime... two of the three biggest recorded snowfalls at CLT occurred after 2/20... 2/26-27/2004 (13.2”) and 3/24/1983 (10.3”)
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I think it part of the changing of seasons. (Basically transitioning from winter to spring). We get stronger systems during this time. But that can go either way, whether it be svr weather or winter wx.
 
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