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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

NickyBGuarantee said:
Well unfortunately no matter what this last round of weather has made us feel inside whether it be sadness, worthlessness, loss of hope .. the weather simply doesn’t care and she will always move on .. to the next threat ?
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Why would this last round of wx make "us feel sadness, worthlessness, loss of hope"? What are you talking about?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'll always have trust issues w/ these LR torchy forecasts as long as there's a hint of troughs off Atlantic Canada that keep forcing CAD to show up inside the medium range.
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It will verify at some point but you gotta go with pattern persistence here. Sorry [mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] but soon my friend. Soon.


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GaWx said:
Why would this last round of wx make "us feel sadness, worthlessness, loss of hope"? What are you talking about?
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up here in NC we’ve gotten like 3 rounds of 33 and rain in the span of a week ... (I’ll speak for some NC peeps I know the rest of the SE got in on some good winter weather and for that I am happy for them)
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
up here in NC we’ve gotten like 3 rounds of 33 and rain in the span of a week ... (I’ll speak for some NC peeps I know the rest of the SE got in on some good winter weather and for that I am happy for them)
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So, you just missing out on a power outage(s) that you didn't even want makes you feel sad and lose hope? If you say so.
 
GaWx said:
So, you just missing out on a power outage(s) that you didn't even want makes you feel sad and lose hope? If you say so.
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He doesn’t mean that, we were headfakes into a snow pattern with even major NWS office’s highlighting us for heavy snow, GFS/Euro/EPS/GEFS were showing awesome signals in NC for snow, (I had a 31 high temp/18 low temp mean on the EPS with precip at H174 !! ) the rugpull was painful, watching the mean snow go down, and temps go up each run on ensembles
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
He doesn’t mean that, we were headfakes into a snow pattern with even major NWS office’s highlighting us for heavy snow, GFS/Euro/EPS/GEFS were showing awesome signals in NC for snow, (I had a 31 high temp/18 low temp mean on the EPS with precip at H174 !! ) the rugpull was painful, watching the mean snow go down, and temps go up each run on ensembles
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Model projections are fiction, especially over a week out. The rug wasn't pulled out. The snow never really existed. The models are just too stupid to know and they often mislead.
I look at it this way. There never was going to be snow for you from this. The models made you think there might be, but that's it. If the models were perfect/all knowing, there never would have been snow on them.

Moral of the story: don't believe too strongly the models or you'll set up yourself for disappointment.
Besides, it is only wx as opposed to something actually serious like bad health. Furthermore, look at the bright side. He/you didn't have rain and 32 or lower. So, he/you avoided power outages, which you didn't want. Consider what Texans without power are going through.
 
GaWx said:
Model projections are fiction, especially over a week out. The rug wasn't pulled out. The snow never really existed. The models are just too stupid to know and they often mislead.
I look at it this way. There never was going to be snow for you from this. The models made you think there might be, but that's it. If the models were perfect/all knowing, there never would have been snow on them.

Moral of the story: don't believe too strongly the models or you'll set up yourself for disappointment.
Besides, it is only wx as opposed to something actually serious like bad health. Furthermore, look at the bright side. He/you didn't have rain and 32 or lower. So, he/you avoided power outages, which you didn't want. Consider what Texans without power are going through.
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The out of power thing is not really so much about the weather as it is about energy infrastructure choices that Texas authorities made - but I like your point about the weather model accuracy. Unless man can alter the weather (which may be possible - see China), then the weather will do whatever it will. The model accuracy will just give us a short lead time to see it coming.
 
GaWx said:
Model projections are fiction, especially over a week out. The rug wasn't pulled out. The snow never really existed. The models are just too stupid to know and they often mislead.
I look at it this way. There never was going to be snow for you from this. The models made you think there might be, but that's it. If the models were perfect/all knowing, there never would have been snow on them.

Moral of the story: don't believe too strongly the models or you'll set up yourself for disappointment.
Besides, it is only wx as opposed to something actually serious like bad health. Furthermore, look at the bright side. He/you didn't have rain and 32 or lower. So, he/you avoided power outages, which you didn't want. Consider what Texans without power are going through.
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Actually a little bit of ice I enjoy the tenth of an inch readings are always so nice coating the trees ... we got that with this storm but last few have been 32.5 and rain .. in a pattern that gave people out west two winter storms .. although yes Texas had issues I also believe we would have been able to handle what it had to throw at us if it was identical to what some of Texas saw .. the rug was definitely pulled .. but I also know that winter isn’t over yet and I believe he will strike again but I used a little hyperbole to show that this just disappointed us that’s all GA
 
Downeastnc said:
I think it has more to do with ------ data reporting....that storm was a monster.....

www.dailypress.com

BLIZZARD OF ’89 BLASTS REGION

Winds gusting as high as 54 mph Friday powered the first blizzard in nine years into the area, capping the snowiest month in Hampton Roads history. The blizzard closed all area schools and many bus…
www.dailypress.com www.dailypress.com

Even harder hit than Tidewater was Gates County, N.C., which received more than 20 inches, said Robert Mazaitis, a weather observer from the Menchville area of Newport News. He recorded 11 inches of snow there.
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I left for boot camp a month after that storm.
 
GaWx said:
So, you just missing out on a power outage(s) that you didn't even want makes you feel sad and lose hope? If you say so.
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I think a lot of people in NC would at least take what we've gotten in Alabama the past week, nothing too major like in Texas but a nice event with snow being seen nearly statewide (whether it be accumulating snow or flurries).
 
tramadoc said:
I left for boot camp a month after that storm.
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1989 was a good year I was a JR/SR and we had the 2 snows in Feb a 2" storm then the big 12-16"one in late Feb....we had out latest 1"snowfall on record on Apr 11th and then the Dec 24th 1989 big hit ( officially 5" but that's off by at least 3-5") and white Christmas, so probably one of the snowiest "calendar" years period here ever....
 
GaWx said:
Model projections are fiction, especially over a week out. The rug wasn't pulled out. The snow never really existed. The models are just too stupid to know and they often mislead.
I look at it this way. There never was going to be snow for you from this. The models made you think there might be, but that's it. If the models were perfect/all knowing, there never would have been snow on them.

Moral of the story: don't believe too strongly the models or you'll set up yourself for disappointment.
Besides, it is only wx as opposed to something actually serious like bad health. Furthermore, look at the bright side. He/you didn't have rain and 32 or lower. So, he/you avoided power outages, which you didn't want. Consider what Texans without power are going through.
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Actually models were at some point showing snow in the Carolinas within the 6-7 day range, only to back off as we got closer to the short range and starting adding snow/ice ror the western SE. I understand his frustration .In just a couple of more years, we will have kids in Augusta/ Aiken/ Columbia starting Middle School that will be too young to remember when the last time when they had a winter storm there and if streak continues after that ,then couple years after that, we will kids starting High School will be too young to remember it snowed or iced in those areas. Even with strong block in the Arctic/Greenland, the eastern SE still couldn't get a single winter storm or even significant cold shot this winter. Meanwhile, areas like De Rio, San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Houston, Lake Charles,etc who have a similar or even worse climate for winter weather then even SE GA get a major winter storm week, and who's knows, those might get another winter next year or two. The only reason ,I'm not giving up on the Midlands of SC having a winter at all this decade is because we haven't had a +PNA/-EPO pattern a while, which usually helps the eastern SE more than anything else. However if do such a pattern and we still don't snow/ice or even significant cold shot(temps at 24 degree below average), it might be time to in throw in the the towel for the entire 2020s for the eastern SE(especially south of the I-40 corridor) far as even getting even one winter storm or significant winter weather event in the 2020s.
 
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Faco Thomas said:
Actually models were at some point showing snow in the Carolinas within the 6-7 day range, only to back off as we got closer to the short range and starting adding snow/ice or the western SE.,I understand his frustration .In just a couple of more years, we will have kids in Augusta/ Aiken/ Columbia starting Middle School that will be too young to remember when the last time when they had a winter storm there and if steak continues after that ,then couple years after that, we will kids starting High School will be too young to remember it snowed or iced in those areas. Even with strong block the eastern SE still couldn't get a single winter storm or even significant cold shot. Meanwhile, areas who have a worse climate for winter weather then even SE GA get a major winter storm week. The only reason ,I'm not giving up on the Midlands of SC having a winter this decade is because we haven't had a +PNA/-EPO pattern a while, which usually helps the eastern SE more than anything else. However if do such a pattern and we still don't snow/ice or even significant cold shot(temps at 24 degree below average), it might be time to in throw in the the towel for the entire 2020s for the eastern SE(especially south of the I-40 corridor) far as even getting even one winter storm or significant winter weather event in the 2020s.
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2020s? Not one person can tell me the southeast won’t have snow between 2021-2029. This winter wasn’t great but that doesn’t mean next winter won’t be better


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Myfrotho704_ said:
SER phase will be gone, we’ll be digging out, ninos will give us epic snow storms while ninas will give us vodka cold, it’ll be like the old days again, roaring 20s for tornadoes tho
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Your constant shifts with your profile pictures (all of which include Mr. Krabs in his many forms) are what is keeping me sane during these emotional and trying times. ? ? ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Actually a little bit of ice I enjoy the tenth of an inch readings are always so nice coating the trees ... we got that with this storm but last few have been 32.5 and rain .. in a pattern that gave people out west two winter storms .. although yes Texas had issues I also believe we would have been able to handle what it had to throw at us if it was identical to what some of Texas saw .. the rug was definitely pulled .. but I also know that winter isn’t over yet and I believe he will strike again but I used a little hyperbole to show that this just disappointed us that’s all GA
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1. So you weren't shut out after all. You got exactly what you desire in an ice storm with the right amount of ice today.

2. Why are you saying the rug was pulled? You never were going to get snow from this. That was fiction. The models suck.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Actually models were at some point showing snow in the Carolinas within the 6-7 day range, only to back off as we got closer to the short range and starting adding snow/ice ror the western SE. I understand his frustration .In just a couple of more years, we will have kids in Augusta/ Aiken/ Columbia starting Middle School that will be too young to remember when the last time when they had a winter storm there and if streak continues after that ,then couple years after that, we will kids starting High School will be too young to remember it snowed or iced in those areas. Even with strong block in the Arctic/Greenland, the eastern SE still couldn't get a single winter storm or even significant cold shot this winter. Meanwhile, areas like De Rio, San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Houston, Lake Charles,etc who have a similar or even worse climate for winter weather then even SE GA get a major winter storm week, and who's knows, those might get another winter next year or two. The only reason ,I'm not giving up on the Midlands of SC having a winter at all this decade is because we haven't had a +PNA/-EPO pattern a while, which usually helps the eastern SE more than anything else. However if do such a pattern and we still don't snow/ice or even significant cold shot(temps at 24 degree below average), it might be time to in throw in the the towel for the entire 2020s for the eastern SE(especially south of the I-40 corridor) far as even getting even one winter storm or significant winter weather event in the 2020s.
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Regardless, the modeled snow was still fictitious. Th models suck. It never was going to occur. Storm results are predetermined. You just didn't know what those results were going to be.
 
GaWx said:
Regardless, the modeled snow was still fictitious. Th models suck. It never was going to occur. Storm results are predetermined. You just didn't know what those results were going to be.
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That brings up an interesting point. IS the weather truly predetermined? You know, the fabled butterfly effect. While we routinely assign differences in sensible weather that of course deviated from what any particular forecast model predicts and whose error grows exponentially with time to model physics and of course lack of data ingested, how much uncertainty is added by random features whose effect is amplified over time?
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
That brings up an interesting point. IS the weather truly predetermined? You know, the fabled butterfly effect. While we routinely assign differences in sensible weather that of course deviated from what any particular forecast model predicts and whose error grows exponentially with time to model physics and of course lack of data ingested, how much uncertainty is added by random features whose effect is amplified over time?
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Interesting point. However, I believe it is miniscule out a couple of weeks or even months in the whole scheme of things because the atmosphere is so massive. One might say something like a large meteorite hit would be an exception, but keep in mind that the meteor was also predetermined to hit.
 
GaWx said:
Interesting point. However, I believe it is miniscule out a couple of weeks or even months in the whole scheme of things because the atmosphere is so massive. One might say something like a large meteorite hit would be an exception, but keep in mind that the meteor was also predetermined to hit.
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IDK, I tend to believe that chaos theory plays a larger role than we may think. The atmosphere is far more chaotic than an asteroid orbit which can be accurately predicted at great lead times into the future and whose orbit would only be altered by other impactors in any significant way.

Getting off-topic here I know, but serious question. As hobbyists, do we really want to know the precise weather for a given location ahead of time? I see that as analogous to knowing the score of a ball game before it's played. Where's the fun in that?
 
Honest question

Good conversation. So what is the prediction as of now for next winter. El Nino,? La Nina?, etc?
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
IDK, I tend to believe that chaos theory plays a larger role than we may think. The atmosphere is far more chaotic than an asteroid orbit which can be accurately predicted at great lead times into the future and whose orbit would only be altered by other impactors in any significant way.

Getting off-topic here I know, but serious question. As hobbyists, do we really want to know the precise weather for a given location ahead of time? I see that as analogous to knowing the score of a ball game before it's played. Where's the fun in that?
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I've said the same thing here before. Absolutely not because then storm tracking would be much more boring. The uncertainty is what makes tracking much more interesting. It makes forecasting a challenge. But just don't fall for model output, especially more than a couple days out, as anything even close to a certainty especially if it is wx you desire.
 
GaWx said:
I've said the same thing here before. Absolutely not because then storm tracking would be much more boring. The uncertainty is what makes tracking much more interesting. It makes forecasting a challenge. But just don't fall for model output, especially more than a couple days out, as anything even close to a certainty especially if it is wx you desire.
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As @pcbjr likes to say, “models are cartoons.” :cool:
 
CaryWx said:
Honest question

Good conversation. So what is the prediction as of now for next winter. El Nino,? La Nina?, etc?
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As of today probably a Nina. We need to get forcing out of the IO next winter. Chances are we aren't going to get the same magnitude of HLB so we will need help
 
Just saw this on the P&C here....not really seeing anything on the models showing this

Friday Night
A chance of rain, possibly mixing with snow after 9pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
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