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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

I know we're talking about a potential storm/cold that's about 10 days away, but it's nice to see the CMC still showing the cold outbreak around the Valentine's Day weekend.
 
metwannabe said:
Well dang hadn't really noticed how close the system Sunday is....

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Sunday is real close. Has been , but nothing has meshed perfect on the runs. Probably want, but its to close not to dig into every cycle. It was a big hit last weekend,went MA, now is back the past couple of days as just wide right by a hair.
 
SD said:
The good thing for us the coastal takes over and we go north northwest at the sfc didn't look at the soundings at that point
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Maybe, but by the next frame/6 hrs precip has moved out and we've actually warmed a lot aloft to a really marginal warm nose vs. the colder look aloft at hour 90. You can see here how the profile is already isothermal from 850-950 mb, so I doubt without some heavy precip we'd be able to push that all the way to the surface.
no_cigar.png
Surface winds are also really weak here, because the low pressure is so far offshore and its circulation is really small. Without that we're not going to get the sort of crashing changeover that we saw with the last system. Related to that, the 850mb circ. is also compact/open with winds at that height never really getting a northerly component, hence why we warm up so much. The best way to fix these problems is to hope for a slight NW trend/stronger low, that maybe doesn't have such a compact circulation. Not really sure what determines the size of the circulation though.
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-------- if that GFS storm comes to fruition that would make up for all the heart break over the recent years .. glad to see something fun in the medium range .. but let’s keep watching Sunday ... it’s way more marginal than I thought ... literally one small tweak and it’s a paste bomb
 
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