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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Per 12Z Ensemble means: good news for the warmth and bug fans (especially on the GEFS), bad news for cold lovers and bug haters like myself for the 11-15 though I hope they end up wrong and/or it turns colder just after:

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If past is prologue, that’s hogwash.


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If past is prologue, that’s hogwash.

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I hope that ends up being the case as I prefer it BN all the time or at least near normal! But they've been pretty consistently AN for that period for several runs with some SER influence. And unlike how it has been all winter, we don't have the help of a strong -AO .Even if it is warm then, there's most of March to follow.

Regardless, we've been most fortunate this winter with very little warmth as you implied! And I know you're very cold up there in HOTlanta right now!
 
3 people were killed and 10 more injured after a tornado struck coastal North Carolina
By Alisha Ebrahimji, Joe Sutton, Hollie Silverman20h
https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=21Jv8s_0Yd48Z2Z00
Homes were heavily damaged near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, after the overnight storm. Chris Seward/AP
At least three people were killed and 10 more were injured after a tornado ripped through Brunswick County, North Carolina, late Monday, officials said.
The National Weather Service in Wilmington confirmed Tuesday the tornado “has been rated as a high-end EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale with winds estimated at 160 mph.”
 
Make it stop!
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LOL! This model may be more cold biased than the model it will be replacing. Has a major storm for a huge portion of the Carolinas. No other model shows anything close to this at all. and actually has above average temperatures for the SE around this period.
 
Been hearing about a MJO Wave entering the IO, if that’s true then we’ll start seeing cold signals soon
Man I've accepted this is over. I don't think we can get the blocking to have a mega March. Maybe we see some half assed effort and coolish pattern but my snow is done for 2021
 
Man I've accepted this is over. I don't think we can get the blocking to have a mega March. Maybe we see some half assed effort and coolish pattern but my snow is done for 2021
Yeah I agree, by cooler signals I mean cold rain/Bn temps to lol
 
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Maybe some areas eek out a 1-3 inch event. We could squeeze something between a cool down and a warm up. Or some upper level low. I want winter to last until it ends on the calendar


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Maybe some areas eek out a 1-3 inch event. We could squeeze something between a cool down and a warm up. Or some upper level low. I want winter to last until it ends on the calendar


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I’ve just got a gut feeling that the western 2/3rd of NC and northern SC get something the last week of February or first week of March. We’re honestly kinda due to get something significant late in the season.
 
I’ve just got a gut feeling that the western 2/3rd of NC and northern SC get something the last week of February or first week of March. We’re honestly kinda due to get something significant late in the season.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised by that. The overall pattern could be warm. Doesn’t mean you can’t squeeze something into a brief cold snap in between a warm pattern.


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I wouldn’t at all be surprised by that. The overall pattern could be warm. Doesn’t mean you can’t squeeze something into a brief cold snap in between a warm pattern.


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Absolutely... March 2009 is a great example of that. Highs were in the 70s five days before that storm. We had the upper low snowstorm followed by a couple very cold days, then 3 days later we were back in the 70s to near 80.
 
I’ve just got a gut feeling that the western 2/3rd of NC and northern SC get something the last week of February or first week of March. We’re honestly kinda due to get something significant late in the season.
GFS says,
I want another hit..
 

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It’s come to the point I do not believe these models anymore until we are within 48 hrs and then I’m wary of what they are showing. Just go back to the days when you turned on the tv in the morning and the weather for that day is the weather you knew about. No 10 and 15 day predictions.


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Yesterday's happy hour parallel GFS delivered the goods.

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See what happens when we actually put a PV lobe in the right place? Notice it's right over Montreal & northern New England instead of north-central Ontario & Quebec like it has been the past week or so. If you want a good snowstorm in NC late this month, need to see a nice s/w cut right through the center of the Great Lakes w/ a trailing wave over the southern plains &/or southern MS valley.

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