We hit it one day last week and it was actually amazing. If it wasn't for pine pollen, I would love spring even more but my car is black except 1.5 months of the year then it's dingy yellow.
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I mean honestly I have been trying to go outside lately and get some good ole fashioned Pickleball in .. 60s would be perfect
For you folks who want warmth, you’ll like the 12Z GEFS, which has the SER taking over within only about 12 days and remaining in control through the end of the run (March 3): actually it goes to warmer than normal in the SE 2/24 and then stays warm...so only 9 days away for those who can’t handle the cold well!
It’ll become CAD cold rain for the Carolinas/NE GA
I don’t expect it, but I hope so. I’m for colder than normal whenever. Anything to keep the bugs away longer plus colder than normal is more enjoyable for me on most any day. We almost always have a 5 month long summer these days no matter what.
One warm day on the 24th? Okay. Stays warm? C'mon man! How well has this been verifying? I know it does have more support though. Sad, really.
Thanks for posting anyway, Larry. Not shooting the messenger here.
Reason why I say that is because the persistent SE Canada vortex that has been there all winter, CAD/in-situ CAD has popped up in the medium range all winter
One warm day on the 24th? Okay. Stays warm? C'mon man! How well has this been verifying? I know it does have more support though. Sad, really.
Yeah, I realize models have been trending colder for earlier. And most of this winter has been wonderful in that way. However, for late month into early March, they’ve been consistent on favoring SER/warmth. It isn’t at all what I want, but I post what the models show. The 12Z GEFS turns warm 2/24 and remains AN through the end.
Sadly for me, here’s the 12Z EPS for 2/24, which shows a dadgum torch:
I so hope that you’re right! I like your positive thinking (from my standpoint).
iGRXY
Member
The remaining of winter will be CAD and cold rains and the SE Canada vortex beating back the SER in the medium to short range. No reason to think it’ll change now since that’s all we’ve had since October and November
SouthSideYankee
Member
Beats this misty cold rain! I'm ready to get back outside and do some hiking.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nasty torch? No, that's beautiful ?
I hope you’re right, believe me! But there is a very good reason to think this is different. For the first time this entire winter, we’ll be losing the solid -AO:
Yessssss bring the warmth !!! Let’s repeat last March !! Awesome
Jessy89
Member
Meanwhile in Florida
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The bugs agree with you! I can’t complain even though I don’t like it. It has been a pleasant surprise since Dec. and besides, this is only wx!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This -NAO needs to go tf home
Please, when I say let’s repeat last March, I mean it 
I can see the pollen haboobs now.
Just need that SE Canada vortex to back off/-NAO back off and there you go, other then the Atlantic pattern, the pacific pattern/pattern on the other side is literally the same as last year 
Jessy89
Member
Any guesses on how bad severe season will be this year?
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Big difference is no more solid -AO. That’s close to neutral.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That -NAO is gonna screw us over and keep popping cold rain CADs into March.
Wiahscasting tells me no, tells me 70s and 80s ☹
LickWx
Member
We had a couple days flirt with 90 here . I went swimming many days In the river. I did a cold water swim in 34 degree weather on Saturday there so 1 month from now would be dope to do another 90 degree day swim.
After today there is such huge part of the US that has snow cover and many of those area will be adding to it the next couple days, you gotta think that even Pacific air coming in will get cooler.
ajr
Member
Amazing with the persistently negative AO/NAO this winter we couldn’t get anything except for trace ice/snow -> cold rain and seasonable temperatures. There’s obviously more to a seasonal forecast than these abstracted weather patterns, but it’s just saddening really that we’ll have another year with almost no winter weather.
Hasn’t the AO been mainly around neutral the last few years during the run of cool/chilly early springs of late. It seems like it’s been relaxing back to neutral after raging positive for most of the winters. Ok
I would be much happier with this pattern than we have right now. Would be nice to enjoy the outdoor without all this cold rain stuff. If it's not gonna to snow or ice, it may as well be warm. Give e a -EPO/+TNH/+PNA over a -AO/-NAO any day.
td tide
Member
I want it as cool as possible for as long as possible. I dread 90+ degree days from May until October
Please be real ?? 
Jessy89
Member
Please be realView attachment 75307
If your talking about heat I’m sure it’s real.
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I look at the positive as this is the first near normal winter in much of the SE since 2017-8 vs an expectation of another warm winter. Considering the warming globe and warming normals, this is almost like a BN winter. This is thanks to the SSW/strong -AO to a large extent. It is important to keep in mind that the Maritime Continent is boiling, which tends to favor longer durations in warm MJO phases. Also, La Nina tends to favor AN winters/stronger SER with a peak in Feb. But we got a break and didn't get that. And we can't forget that the globe is warmer than before. So, in essence, there was a battle between the cold forcing of -AO/SSW/-NAO and warm forcing of warm Maritime continent helped by La Nina along with a warmer globe. It came out to a wash. And areas not far from you got measurable snow and ice. When it comes to wintry precip, that tends to be random/unpredictable and vary widely from location to location. Look what the Midsouth and TX have gotten. Also, much of N Ga got a nice snow.
Edit: And didn't Greenville, SC and NC both get a nice snow? And Asheville has had 8" of snow vs 6" normal to date!
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You sure that's what you want
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I could really go for one of these right now
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Year-to-date precip anomalies for the SE US.
Many places in east-central NC have already reached their climo YTD rainfall for mid-late March.
Many places in east-central NC have already reached their climo YTD rainfall for mid-late March.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah the water standing in my yard Sun evening rivaled any previous cane etc......with another 2-3" on deck this week that will put me over a foot of rain so far this year......the irony of mother nature giving me a foot so far this year but it being mostly all rain is not lost on me.....she can be cruel.