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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

SD said:
You sure that's what you wantView attachment 75322
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Ok let’s try this then.

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GaWx said:
I look at the positive as this is the first near normal winter in much of the SE since 2017-8 vs an expectation of another warm winter. Considering the warming globe and warming normals, this is almost like a BN winter. This is thanks to the SSW/strong -AO to a large extent. It is important to keep in mind that the Maritime Continent is boiling, which tends to favor longer durations in warm MJO phases. Also, La Nina tends to favor AN winters/stronger SER with a peak in Feb. But we got a break and didn't get that. And we can't forget that the globe is warmer than before. So, in essence, there was a battle between the cold forcing of -AO/SSW/-NAO and warm forcing of warm Maritime continent helped by La Nina along with a warmer globe. It came out to a wash. And areas not far from you got measurable snow and ice. When it comes to wintry precip, that tends to be random/unpredictable and vary widely from location to location. Look what the Midsouth and TX have gotten. Also, much of N Ga got a nice snow.

Edit: And didn't Greenville, SC and NC both get a nice snow? And Asheville has had 8" of snow vs 6" normal to date!
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We got a couple of flizzards and that’s it.


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GaWx said:
Because it is the often clueless post day 10 operational GFS. This is the Happy Hour GEFS 11-15 2 meter temp anomaly, toasty for the SE (ugh) La Nina/SER style: If this were to be right, I'd hope for a cooldown soon afterward,
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That looks lovely, but it is a mirage. Hiding underneath that facade is 46 and rain.
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS just stuck a big fork in any SE ridge or warm-up in the extended

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Hopefully it will be incorrect. At this point, unless it's sort of cold that can bring winter weather far southeast(which is not even close) ,I hope things trend a lot warmer as we get a lot closer. Tired of getting cold rain.
 
Just gusted to 35mph here. 41F but that took our wind chill down to about 30F
 
Webberweather53 said:
0z EPS just stuck a big fork in any SE ridge or warm-up in the extended

View attachment 75428
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Interested to see how end of February works out. In Cohen’s blog, following the SSWE ( not that he is always right) he discussed how in his research it showed what typically happened with the North American pattern. Usually the cold first dumped into the west and Midwest (as we have seen), but then another cold injection into the east later occurs, I believe a week or two later. Ensembles have shown the opposite of this up until last night, so I will be interested to see if it continues to trend colder.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS & GEFS have been running a bit too warm to kick off the last week of February in previous runs, they're adjusting much colder for the Feb 20-24th period

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Any chance we could make this work for another chance at getting snow in the SE before winter is over or is it just too late in the season at this point?
 
mrdaddyman said:
Any chance we could make this work for another chance at getting snow in the SE before winter is over or is it just too late in the season at this point?
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Imo, outside of a freak bomb cyclone, we need a sizable chunk of the vortex over NW Canada to get dislodged and come southward over the Great Lakes to have a chance for a big dog in early March. We can't have it sitting in central-northern Ontario or Quebec like we're seeing this week, that's likely not gonna cut it for us in the Carolinas esp at this time of the winter.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Imo, outside of a freak bomb cyclone, we need a sizable chunk of the vortex over NW Canada to get dislodged and come southward over the Great Lakes to have a chance for a big dog in early March. We can't have it sitting in central-northern Ontario or Quebec like we're seeing this week, that's likely not gonna cut it for us in the Carolinas esp at this time of the winter.
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I think the Gfs advertised this well
 
mrdaddyman said:
Any chance we could make this work for another chance at getting snow in the SE before winter is over or is it just too late in the season at this point?
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We’ve seen too many late February and March storms over the years to say it’s too late. Heck two of my biggest three snowfalls of the last 7 years are the 2.8 inches on 3/12/17 and 2.5 inches on 4/2/19. As with any other time though, we just got to have the right set up.
 
Lickwx said:
Can’t last forever , we are in pretty anomalous territory now are we not ? Can’t possibly last much longer .
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-NAOs from these SSWEs can last a few-several months and keep going for a while even after the mid-upper stratosphere cools. The -NAO in 2009-10 lasted the entire year fwiw lol
 
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