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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Stormlover said:
Hello Birmingham...I see you there Storm! lol View attachment 70605
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iGRXY said:
Biggest thing to take away is a winter storm is likely within the next 2 weeks. It just depends on when we can get the cold air to finally drive southeast. One thing to note is a 1060 MB high going to be coming down? Likely not, 1045 - 1050 is more likely when a strong HP finally slides south which would push heavier moisture further north. Looks like if you live between I40 and I20 things look promising for some form of a big winter storm at some point in the next 2 week timeframe.
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Yes, yes, yes...that's the key point to take away from this, at this point.
 
I'd be careful on 10 day clown maps. The big take away here is a decent storm around or close to Valentine's Day. It was projected a bit earlier (mid next week) but has slid out on the calendar. Hopefully this is accurate and will be supported by other models on future runs.

As also mentioned, not buying the high temps early next week but also believing now there really is no supportive cold air (outside the mtns) for the Sunday precip.

All that said in order to get the arctic cold blast in here think we may have to endure a quick brief surge in temps (SER) for the new pattern to dig in.
 
Probably would've been a hard tightrope to walk with out losing some cold air, but a little bit stronger/more closed off and this would've popped a (stronger) coastal low on the way out... note the 850 mb circulation doesn't even hit the Atlantic until around hour 264. Could've easily added 12-24 hours and 6+" for central and eastern NC.
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SD said:
You'd think we could beat it with melting and decent rates
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Not with southerly surface winds like in that sounding. Probably a good amount of warm air advection at the surface to counteract any cooling from melting.
 
on that last GFS run, the snow/sleet line is -10C at 925mb back over MS, LA, and TX. quite the warm nose lol. but it actually kinda makes sense due to the insane amount of WAA needed to saturate the column with that strong of a HP

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RVD said:
Not with southerly surface winds like in that sounding. Probably a good amount of warm air advection at the surface to counteract any cooling from melting.
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The good thing for us the coastal takes over and we go north northwest at the sfc didn't look at the soundings at that point
 
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