• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Downeastnc said:
I think it has more to do with ------ data reporting....that storm was a monster.....

www.dailypress.com

BLIZZARD OF ’89 BLASTS REGION

Winds gusting as high as 54 mph Friday powered the first blizzard in nine years into the area, capping the snowiest month in Hampton Roads history. The blizzard closed all area schools and many bus…
www.dailypress.com www.dailypress.com

Even harder hit than Tidewater was Gates County, N.C., which received more than 20 inches, said Robert Mazaitis, a weather observer from the Menchville area of Newport News. He recorded 11 inches of snow there.
Click to expand...

Yeah I remember dad measuring 16 inches in the front yard. Huge drifts. Maybe we can get a copycat with this gfs storm.
 
Downeastnc said:
I think it has more to do with ------ data reporting....that storm was a monster.....

www.dailypress.com

BLIZZARD OF ’89 BLASTS REGION

Winds gusting as high as 54 mph Friday powered the first blizzard in nine years into the area, capping the snowiest month in Hampton Roads history. The blizzard closed all area schools and many bus…
www.dailypress.com www.dailypress.com

Even harder hit than Tidewater was Gates County, N.C., which received more than 20 inches, said Robert Mazaitis, a weather observer from the Menchville area of Newport News. He recorded 11 inches of snow there.
Click to expand...

I was actually looking for that article when I was trying to make this map. I'll definitely make some adjustments to that map and many others at some point. The NCDC IPS archive was down most of this week when I had time to make some progress on my reanalysis, so my time was limited in that regard.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not only that, in 3-4 weeks they normally start seeing weekly (sometimes daily) big time supercells
Click to expand...

And Del Rio is notorious for big motherships (I chased one last spring down there), the high-level heating off the Serranias del Burro mountains in extreme northern Mexico coupled w/ their ability to funnel deep layer moisture right off the Gulf of Mexico, plus deep-layer shear from the subtropical jet creates an ideal environment for supercells. One of my colleagues at UNCC found using a supercell tracking algorithm that this part of extreme SW Texas and northern Mexico just east of these mountains are the supercell hot spot in N America & possibly even the entire world. Too bad you're more likely to get kidnapped by the cartel than catch a giant wedge tor or else I'd be chasing there a lot
 
Webberweather53 said:
I was actually looking for that article when I was trying to make this map. I'll definitely make some adjustments to that map and many others at some point. The NCDC IPS archive was down most of this week when I had time to make some progress on my reanalysis, so my time was limited in that regard.
Click to expand...
I think @Downeastnc is right about the weird data reporting. As kid in Ahoskie (Hertford) I remember seeing closer to 8 or even higher with this one. I see the 4 showing up in the county, and that seems way off.

I've tried finding news reports from the local paper that day, but I think it's behind a paywall.
 
Webberweather53 said:
And Del Rio is notorious for big motherships (I chased one last spring down there), the high-level heating off the Serranias del Burro mountains in extreme northern Mexico coupled w/ their ability to funnel deep layer moisture right off the Gulf of Mexico, plus deep-layer shear from the subtropical jet creates an ideal environment for supercells. One of my colleagues at UNCC found using a supercell tracking algorithm that this part of extreme SW Texas and northern Mexico just east of these mountains are the supercell hot spot in N America & possibly even the entire world. Too bad you're more likely to get kidnapped by the cartel than catch a giant wedge tor or else I'd be chasing there a lot
Click to expand...
Just saw that their single day snowfall record is 8.4 inches from 1985. If already at 7, they’re going to break it,
 
Webberweather53 said:
And Del Rio is notorious for big motherships (I chased one last spring down there), the high-level heating off the Serranias del Burro mountains in extreme northern Mexico coupled w/ their ability to funnel deep layer moisture right off the Gulf of Mexico, plus deep-layer shear from the subtropical jet creates an ideal environment for supercells. One of my colleagues at UNCC found using a supercell tracking algorithm that this part of extreme SW Texas and northern Mexico just east of these mountains are the supercell hot spot in N America & possibly even the entire world. Too bad you're more likely to get kidnapped by the cartel than catch a giant wedge tor or else I'd be chasing there a lot
Click to expand...
It would be epic living around Fort Stockton area, imagine
 
Webberweather53 said:
I was actually looking for that article when I was trying to make this map. I'll definitely make some adjustments to that map and many others at some point. The NCDC IPS archive was down most of this week when I had time to make some progress on my reanalysis, so my time was limited in that regard.
Click to expand...

Yeah there is zero chance they only had 5" between me and VA beach....if anything those places had 12-24" in a lot of spots....like Shaggy said we had 12-16" probably, drifts several ft deep etc....
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When’s the last time an event started out like this and gave you snow? 1847? 1901? Never?View attachment 76156
Click to expand...
That low needs to be modeled in Cancun at this range. And considering the original "King Kong" was once modeled there, perhaps Blue Fields and we'd be in business here in the 40 degrees and rain capitol of the world.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
The SER will get beat down closer to game time like it has all winter.
Click to expand...
Meh, it doesn't look like there will be any strong blocking to beat down the SER like it has for most of the winter. Even then, it was still having an effect on precip type even here. Painfully missed a HECS to my north by 50-100 miles. But at least I nickel and dimed by way to double digit totals on the season.

The models probably correct to a stronger southeast ridge as long as the blocking is weakening enough for it to overpower. Normally I would say otherwise, but the blocking is pretty much gone, MJO is going into phase 6 and it's still a La Nina
 
JakkelWx said:
Meh, it doesn't look like there will be any strong blocking to beat down the SER like it has for most of the winter. Even then, it was still having an effect on precip type even here. Painfully missed a HECS to my north by 50-100 miles. But at least I nickel and dimed by way to double digit totals on the season.

The models probably correct to a stronger southeast ridge as long as the blocking is weakening enough for it to overpower. Normally I would say otherwise, but the blocking is pretty much gone, MJO is going into phase 6 and it's still a La Nina
Click to expand...
Yeah models have weak blocking, but nothing crazy strong, unless they correct to more, that will probably result in a slightly less colder rain setup, lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
There are certainly a few winters that immediately come to mind that managed to pull a last second miracle storm right at the end of Feb into early March out of the hat after being mediocre-crap for the entire winter. We all know about 1959-60, but this is another oldie that found a way and you can obviously tell by comparing the individual storm map to the seasonal totals how much of the overall snowfall came from just this one storm. Kind of a weird snowfall distribution too, followed US HWY 64 and the heaviest totals stayed just south of GSO and cut thru Chatham, Randolph, & southern Wake counties.

View attachment 76187

View attachment 76189
Click to expand...
Even last winter’s late February storm was kind of a miracle. It was a crap slush storm, but up until it we were completely skunked.

298C22DA-719A-4298-8E20-2E9FBDD6A409.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top