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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

GaWx said:
Actually, the SE has been very fortunate this winter with the SER weak most of the time til now. It has overall been quite a bit colder than I expected with pretty near normal, the first real winter since 2017-8. But unfortunately that may turn out to be a one winter break.

Looking ahead, until the Maritime Continent (MC) cools off significantly, it appears to me that the SER will likely be back in control. Regarding the 2020s as a whole vs the 1990s in absolute terms, the 2020s have a big advantage of a good bit warmer globe. So, my guess would be warmer. But that's just a wild guess and is subject to change due to who knows what, including a cooler MC due to a successful dry ice drop.

Speaking of the dry ice drop, have you signed up for the free MC dry ice cruise yet? You know, the cruise when numerous wx weenies are supposed to drop megatons of dry ice overboard to cool off the MC so as to weaken the SER?
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So is there a real possibly that the waters in the Indian, Maritime Continent and Western pacific waters/oceans will cool down at any point in the 5-10 years.? If I had to guess, that's probably one of the main reasons why the -EPO/+PNA/-AO trio pattern rarely happens anymore and when it does, it doesn't benefit us the same, is that correct?
 
Faco Thomas said:
So is there a real possibly that the waters in the Indian, Maritime Continent and Western pacific waters/oceans will cool down at any point in the 5-10 years.? If I had to guess, that's probably one of the main reasons why the -EPO/+PNA/-AO trio pattern rarely happens anymore and when it does, it doesn't benefit us the same, is that correct?
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I have no idea. But maybe the cruise...well, nevermind lol.
 
Anyone seeing any pingers. Must be frzng rn henderson. Noticed some blue coming off vA escarpment
 

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44 wedged degrees here for my evening walk as the rain has stopped. Loving it! Been wedged for 60 hours! Back to reality tomorrow.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS agrees with the SER pattern. Also, La Ninas in Feb favor this. We've been lucky for much of the winter. Eventually our luck will end. We'll see.
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Add the 0Z EPS to agreeing on the dreaded SER being in control last part of Feb and first part of Mar. I don't like to see this, but it is what it is on the model consensus. Hopefully it will be wrong, but I'm not betting against it:

SERonEPS.png
 
Both GFS models (new & old) show some winter storm fantasy potential near the end of the month. Just maybe we can sneak in a last minute event before the spring pattern starts taking over. **I know March can deliver, but it does become so much more difficult after the first week of March.
 
For you guys looking at this fantasy threat, c’mon now. Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again.


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I will say, the negative NAO gets cranking again, that SOB. A little more cold press and the upper south is in business. 40’s and rain for I-85 though.


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DixieBlizzard said:
Yeah, why worry about all that snow in TX when we will get 17 inches by the end of the month! That should put my fantasy total somewhere around 80".
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I don't think I've ever seen the whole state of TX under winter storm warnings. Meanwhile, we can't manage a sleet pellet. Only TX and LA get their snow fantasy maps to come to fruition. But maybe we can still score, since we all tend to do better with winter wx during a pattern change.
 
Am I the only one noticing that the milder weather is starting to get pushed back??? Over the weekend, it looked like I was going to be around 60 both this coming Saturday and Sunday. Now I’m looking at 40s to near 50 both days.
 
Chazwin said:
Am I the only one noticing that the milder weather is starting to get pushed back??? Over the weekend, it looked like I was going to be around 60 both this coming Saturday and Sunday. Now I’m looking at 40s to near 50 both days.
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I actually have been noticing this and it seems that we have artic lows that move through quick after these two storms were dealing with now pass .. progressively I’ve seen the cold has been inching its way south west as a whole and now the cmc almost has a wave crashing into some good cold air over the upper SE and producing some stuff that was close to snow... I’m starting to think this snow pack is really going to have an impact in our medium range at the least
 
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