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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Jessy89 said:
fd6d450052922bedaf0fb9c55fe50481.jpg


There’s the storm on euro just suppressed not bad at this range


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That's a beautiful look to me. 850 low is over SW Louisiana at this time too.
 
Faco Thomas said:
This pattern always seem to be 7-9 days away and with models treading warmer and warmer, I wouldn't be that surprised if this "great pattern"/"cold snap" just doesn't come at all. We been through this before where models looked great for cold/Snow, but completely backed off in the 5-9 day range.
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It may be 7-10 days away. BUT the models are all picking up on a major winter storm for this time period. So I’ll take my chances. Plus the models know February 13th is my 40th birthday. So what could possibly go wrong! LOL!


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Faco Thomas said:
This pattern always seem to be 7-9 days away and with models treading warmer and warmer, I wouldn't be that surprised if this "great pattern"/"cold snap" just doesn't come at all. We been through this before where models looked great for cold/Snow, but completely backed off in the 5-9 day range.
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The difference this year though is that once we get inside 5 days, the temperatures trend colder.
 
whatalife said:
It may be 7-10 days away. BUT the models are all picking up on a major winter storm for this time period. So I’ll take my chances. Plus the models know February 13th is my 40th birthday. So what could possibly go wrong! LOL!


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climo says Feb 10th-15th is a favored period in South Carolina also. Would match up perfectly.
 
This may be whamby material and if so mods please move it.

We all need to remember models can and sometimes will lose good looks in the medium range. This could happen here and these clown maps will have been burned into our hearts and dreams. Lets remember to keep that perspective moving forward and temper any hope until we get inside that 120-144 hr mark.
 
Shawn said:
The last major Winter event for the KCAE area was in February of 2014. Around Valentines day. Been a while since we've seen the pattern we may be heading towards.

I bet we end up ice. Yep. We are that unlucky here.
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Many of the really big snowstorms in the SE US usually feature significant icing somewhere.

Even for the historic Feb 1973 storm where up to 24" fell in Rimini, most places within and just southeast of the heaviest axis of snow like Myrtle Beach, Charleston, & Georgetown, had a big ice storm before the precip changed over to heavy snow.

February 9-10 1973 SC Snowmap.jpg
 
Faco Thomas said:
This pattern always seem to be 7-9 days away and with models treading warmer and warmer, I wouldn't be that surprised if this "great pattern"/"cold snap" just doesn't come at all. We been through this before where models looked great for cold/Snow, but completely backed off in the 5-9 day range.
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Yes, exactly like what was supposed to happen this Sunday where a few days ago it had a low of 11 at KATL.
 
That is 2 runs of the euro with some wintry around here and the GFS showing at times. I know it will change a million times, but holy hell....Thats a nice site to see. Honestly....WEBB, this is an almost IDEAL pattern for wide-spread overrunning snow/ice. You have shown that on maps already as well.
 
Does anyone remember what day we started seeing the Jan 3rd, 2018 storm emerge? I remember the Euro showed it first. I'd go back and look, but I was seeing if anyone remembered off the top of their head. Seems like it was around Dec 27th
 
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