That 2 week stretch in February 1989 was an absolute weather roller coaster. The Thursday going into President’s Day weekend, the CLT area was close to 80 then the next day say temperatures falling through the day with rain changing to sleet by that evening... Saturday was in the upper 20s with sleet/snow all day and into the evening. Sunday warmed back up into the 40s, rain and upper 30s on Presidents Day, then a mild day on Tuesday in the 60s, then Wednesday was in the 40s, then of course on Thursday, we were on the northern end of the snowstorm that got you. Then by the following Sunday it was back close to 70 again.
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Man, what a great look!
Showmeyourtds
Member
I'm resisting the urge to look at the clown maps after the 12z goof so as not to get too excited. From the precip maps, it looks like an absolute paste job from Jackson MS to all of the Carolina boys. Widespread 8" to 16" along I-20 through Georgia & into SC as well as up I-85.
I was just about to mention that. For a general timeframe, the agreement that there is on the Ensembles and at times operational is very close to February 2014. That one was picked up and stayed there. Of course there was back and forth on precip type and temps, strength of storm and timing, but all in all we knew a week out that there would most likely be a significant hit.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The silver lining to this warming trend we're seeing in the short-range is we end up with a bigger cold dump in the longer term. The PV lobe has been trending slower because of the stronger N Pac wave train & -EPO that's enticing the other PV lobe in Alaska to slide SE and interact w/ the main one near Manitoba.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're actually trending towards a merger of these TPV lobes over the Canadian Rockies early next week, the models are gonna be all over the place for a while. It's also pretty evident even on the last few 12z EPS runs that the upstream changes over the N Pacific are largely to blame for the warming trend we've seen this weekend & early next week. We're essentially ending up w/ a slightly delayed, but much stronger arctic air mass thanks to the stronger -WPO this weekend. Big question will be how far south this air mass gets, but given the huge Baffin Bay block/west-based -NAO the SE ridge is likely gonna get beaten down eventually
Nice.....could be a case where the clown maps are maybe even underdone a little on the northern periphery since I’d expect very good ratios with that setup with 850s near -10C. Not that it matters, it’s a fantasy control run.
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Showmeyourtds
Member
I'd defer to the term "model agreement" to some of the mets around here (Eric @Webberweather53 & Chris (@deltadog03). But as others have said, I think the idea is close to being on the table if it isn't already. Still quite a ways out though.
To add to this, we are currently working on an actual rules page to reference on whats allowed and not so theres less confusion on what seems to be some people singled out versus others, etc.
Nam is trending flatter/more detached with the weekend stuff at H5
whizrtr
Member
olhausen
Member
For this area it was showing a Saturday night arrival with hi temps around 12 degrees On sunday. The gfs kept showing this until yesterday and now instead of highs in the low teens on Sunday reality has set in. Either way still a good chance of a decent storm or two this February. As I said earlier this pattern beats the heck out of the last few February’s.
Philstorm91
Member
I guess this pattern we're heading into is somewhat more uncommon? I have always heard the expression "when it's warm in Alaska, it's cold in the lower 48, and vice versa", particularly from TV mets such as on TWC or even Accuweather. I guess that saying only holds true when the ridge builds over Alaska, thus pushing down the cold further to the east. But this looks like an expansive amount of cold tumbling down, per the model runs so far.
We’ve built a decent refrigerator above us so far
If we get that look on a Saturday morning when I’m not on call boyyy what a gift.
Dang it I shouldn’t have looked at the schedule XD.
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olhausen
Member
Maybe all of this cold comes together around mid February and we get a fab February 2015 part 2! That Was one of my favorite winters just due to the amount of events in such a short time and how cold it was. Snow was covering the ground here for 2 straight weeks which is unheard of for anytime of the winter let alone late February.
WEBB, or anyone else....I think I have asked before (sorry if have) any maps to that FEB 1973 storm?