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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Call me crazy but I do think there’s potential for a storm next Friday. The players are on the field and this storms been showing up at times for days.


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Very fast and progressive pattern we’re seeing. Can’t expect anything more than marginal climo favored setups at best out of this.
Im a hater on this, but with a faster and more progressive pattern, that can pay off with less WAA aloft, tradeoff is crap surface temps/BL temps, I yawn
 
Very fast and progressive pattern we’re seeing. Can’t expect anything more than marginal climo favored setups at best out of this.

Our last system had marginal temps in upstate. And it worked out for everyone from I85 north to you in cashiers and me and Maggie valley.


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Call me crazy but I do think there’s potential for a storm next Friday. The players are on the field and this storms been showing up at times for days.


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I do think think that this timeframe has had some interest for the last few days. Like I commented the night, I just have a gut feeling that we east of the mountains score one before mid March, but I’m not buying into anything specific until 96 hours out.
 
Im a hater on this, but with a faster and more progressive pattern, that can pay off with less WAA aloft, tradeoff is crap surface temps/BL temps, I yawn
Obviously anyone prefers to have an a fresh Arctic airmass in place, but these marginal set ups can work even late in the season. It’s just depend on us getting the cold air aloft. In all honesty if you look at the set up, February 2004 was probably one of the most marginal events you’ll ever see. A negative PNA, a 1031 HP over Ontario and Quebec and there wasn’t really any cold air in place prior... the high the day before was around 50. We just had good timing and that probably going to be the key for us to see anything the rest of the winter. Having to have just the right timing though is why I’m not buying into anything specific until we’re in side 4 days.
 
A lot of things must come together exactly right for this to work. But it’s completely doable. I’d be more doubtful if we was in mid March. I say everyone let’s drop the spring talk and try to reel one last batch of fun in hopefully east of the mountains.


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One more note this morning it appeared long gone as the GFS had it in Virginia. But what the difference 12hrs makes. This thing has noise


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A lot of things must come together exactly right for this to work. But it’s completely doable. I’d be more doubtful if we was in mid March. I say everyone let’s drop the spring talk and try to reel one last batch of fun in hopefully east of the mountains.


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I say let’s somehow get it stuck out west, the N/S trough dips out quickly, and we build a death ridge and that puts a end to modeled bs quickly
 
One more note this morning it appeared long gone as the GFS had it in Virginia. But what the difference 12hrs makes. This thing has noise


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Yeah there is definitely no trend either way with this right now. All we know is that there looks to be a storm system around the Friday timeframe next week.
 
I say let’s somehow get it stuck out west, the N/S trough dips out quickly, and we build a death ridge and that puts a end to modeled bs quickly
Stop wish-casting fro .... lol. One thing that we can say here is that there is a storm signal showing up on all the models. That's all we need to know at this point. Let's just watch and see what trends develop. However, I would not rule out a late season winter storm.
 
I say let’s somehow get it stuck out west, the N/S trough dips out quickly, and we build a death ridge and that puts a end to modeled bs quickly

What if this really happens? I bet you’d be pretty happy with snow in your back yard. I’m just excited to be able to hopefully discuss one more system with everyone this winter. I love to discuss winter weather with y’all. Everyone is so informative and knowledgeable. Really hoping this one stays relevant on the models and keeps winter discussion alive! It be dead in here come June July August


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What if this really happens? I bet you’d be pretty happy with snow in your back yard. I’m just excited to be able to hopefully discuss one more system with everyone this winter. I love to discuss winter weather with y’all. Everyone is so informative and knowledgeable. Really hoping this one stays relevant on the models and keeps winter discussion alive! It be dead in here come June July August


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Not happening. Don't get his hopes up, he has been destroyed
 
I say let’s somehow get it stuck out west, the N/S trough dips out quickly, and we build a death ridge and that puts a end to modeled bs quickly
I like it. Nothing wrong with reverse psychology with the models. Root for spring, and the models give us a ridge that never materializes, only to be let down with a winter storm impacting the SE. Why not?
 
YTD measurement of 13.19" 4.5 miles WSW of PGV, only 0.50" equivalent fell as SN. Assume there may be a few others in the SE who can top this, anyone?
 
Is anyone else starting to see some fog develop?? I am and the low tonight is forecasted to be 27... perhaps some freezing fog in the morning
 

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