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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Myfrotho704_ said:
I just wish we could slow that trough around the PNW and build heights between that trough and shortwave out west, I want a cutoff big dog, not a pussycat shortwave that gets picked back up
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Cut offs are too dangerous and much harder to get right ... I don’t want major severe if we get a last minute SER
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Cut offs are too dangerous and much harder to get right ... I don’t want major severe if we get a last minute SER
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Actually Could be more severe vs a pure cutoff if the SER does trend back/NS energy backs off and a cutoff does decide to join waveguide like what the euro shows, but that needs major adjustments for that (easter Setup went in that fashion from a stuck cutoff to it phasing with a trough out of the pacific)
 
I wouldn't sleep on the system a week from today. Decent hp over the great lakes. Unless it shifts north, I think from western Arkansas to nc could see some snow. Mainly i40 north. I'm personally ready for warmer weather. We got 11-12 inches total from two events here. Still below freezing. We actually had three winter storms within a week of each other. My mind is in next winter mode now??
 
Good morning folks.

Let's try to keep the wheels from falling off this thread that's dedicated to discussing the weather. Take your whine and cheese comments to the proper thread. I know that most of you are bitter and feel the need to insert sarcasm into every post, even if you include pertinent maps and relevant information. I will say that the tone of those types of posts opens the door for others to reply with their own whining/sarcastic/humorous post that has zero relevant weather content. That's when the wheels come completely off and this thread is the exact same as the whamby thread. That's not what we want this thread to be. Please think about the tone of your posts and replies and put them in the proper thread. This will greatly help the moderators from having to deal with so many posts in this thread that have to be deleted, moved, and/or assessed warning points.

Thanks for your consideration and help in keeping this a forum where we can discuss the weather, have fun, or gripe and complain without stepping on each others toes by posting in the proper threads. Have a great weekend!
 
Haven’t had a chance to look at the gfs this morning but since no one has said anything on it I’m assuming it wasn’t too swell?

Edit: it still had a nice little 1-4” event with some backend freezing rain that was pretty decent pushing 0.25” in a lot of places so that’s a win I guess
 
iGRXY said:
Haven’t had a chance to look at the gfs this morning but since no one has said anything on it I’m assuming it wasn’t too swell?
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Storm was there. I think the v16 was suppressed. Signal is still there in my opinion. As always, it’s such a marginal setup that there’s not enough there to hang out hat on. I’m just going to enjoy the digital snow. It might be the last big runs of the season.
 
packfan98 said:
Storm was there. I think the v16 was suppressed. Signal is still there in my opinion. As always, it’s such a marginal setup that there’s not enough there to hang out hat on. I’m just going to enjoy the digital snow. It might be the last big runs of the season.
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Yeah we really are missing a good cold push so it will a wet snow/cold rain setup anyway.


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packfan98 said:
Storm was there. I think the v16 was suppressed. Signal is still there in my opinion. As always, it’s such a marginal setup that there’s not enough there to hang out hat on. I’m just going to enjoy the digital snow. It might be the last big runs of the season.
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Would prefer suppression until about 48-72 hours out. Would agree that the odds are this ends up being another extremely cold rain in the end. I had been hopeful bc of how strong of a -NAO there was and we’ve had strong HP in CAD areas all went but nothing has happened. No reason to think this one will do much either especially with meteorological winter seemingly coming to an end
 
iGRXY said:
Would prefer suppression until about 48-72 hours out. Would agree that the odds are this ends up being another extremely cold rain in the end. I had been hopeful bc of how strong of a -NAO there was and we’ve had strong HP in CAD areas all went but nothing has happened. No reason to think this one will do much either especially with meteorological winter seemingly coming to an end
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We just had two pretty severe ice storms in the CAD areas...
 
Jessy89 said:
Call me crazy but I do think there’s potential for a storm next Friday. The players are on the field and this storms been showing up at times for days.


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GfS showed it at 384 hour. Still there but doubtful. Another mix cad event with minimal results most likely
 
Jessy89 said:
A lot of things must come together exactly right for this to work. But it’s completely doable. I’d be more doubtful if we was in mid March. I say everyone let’s drop the spring talk and try to reel one last batch of fun in hopefully east of the mountains.


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Alot of things always have to come together for us. This is the SE
 
So the trend with shortwave for the Friday system is a much flatter system that has been sheared apart while the less progressive northern stream while crossing the four-corners area GFS, GEM, and to a lesser degree, the EMCF. 00Z ICON is much more defined, but of course winds up a threat from only Virginia (surprise, surprise) north. The runs over the next day will be telling as to whether we're losing the system entirley, or perhaps a weaker system that may appear to disapear only to pop up again in a weaker, further south state in a few days.

Then, out on an island to start the next workweek, the GFS v16 starts March off with a potent cutoff with March 2009 vibes.
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I’m not sold on icons solution. I do think there will be a system Friday or Saturday next week. It might be rain that’s what needs ironing out rain snow ice? Let’s see what gfs shows soon


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Jessy89 said:
I’m not sold on icons solution. I do think there will be a system Friday or Saturday next week. It might be rain that’s what needs ironing out rain snow ice? Let’s see what gfs shows soon


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The icon shows a storm. It's just a rain storm and snow for va
 
Gfs has snow on NC coast Friday morning. Not that great of a run this go around


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ATLwxfan said:
We only seem to cite the icon when in disagrees with the GFS


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Icon has been decent this year. I’ll admit I never really paid attention to it in the past. It’s always been the gfs euro cmc for me. However models have been horrible this year mostly


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GaSnowhound said:
Bring it! We’re running out of time it feels like.
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Hey Atlwx, would you mind mentioning what details re projected pattern lead to the idea of being a “perfect set up”? I’m trying to understand some of the other variables in process outside of “Lanina phase 7 etc”. TIA
 
This winter is giving me 2010-2011 vibes, other then the snow and cold completely avoiding the southeast, hopefully spring doesn’t follow
 
GaSnowhound said:
Hey Atlwx, would you mind mentioning what details re projected pattern lead to the idea of being a “perfect set up”? I’m trying to understand some of the other variables in process outside of “Lanina phase 7 etc”. TIA
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I’m a doctor not a meteorologist so I’m not the best person to explain it. Nice suppressed storm track with a gulf low and a big high over NE. Hopefully that bowling ball drops into Texas and stays nice and cold as it slides East. With marginal temps it’ll thread the line between heavy rain or snow. The whole “cooling the column” bit. There’s my awful explanation. Feel free to roll your eyes and toss.


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We have had plenty of rain for NC this winter. We have had plenty of cold temps, too. Just not cold enough for snow around my area except for the one storm in January. We have had a couple of freezing rain events since then. We have been so close to getting a good snow storm here. We just need it to be a couple of degrees colder than it has been when we get the precip. Maybe the storm next Friday will finally be the payoff for all the precip and close calls we have had here this winter.
 
I just saw the Euro run had a good snow storm here for Friday. The GFS backed off from yesterday's awesome run. But I think there is a strong storm signal. Just looking at this from a layman's view, we have seen this dance before, where one model shows a storm, then backs off, while another model that wasn't showing anything before starts to show a storm, too. This back and forth is usually a good signal in my opinion. A lot better than just one model showing anything. Usually when we have this back and forth dance it ends up being a legit threat.
 
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