Looking at the 6 hour, looked like it was a few MA hits, and lots of blanks (moisture starved I’m assuming) so a few MA hits and suppressed
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
RAH is watching:
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...
Surface high pressure and weak s/w ridging will move across the area
on Tuesday into Wednesday, with the approach of our next system from
the west on Thursday. The surface high will build into the area from
the Deep south, resulting in a warming trend through midweek. This
will result in high temps warming from the upper 50s/lower 60s on
Tuesday into the mid to upper 60s for Wednesday, possibly lingering
into Thursday. Uncertainty increasing by late in the week into the
early weekend as the medium range guidance differ in how they handle
the next system and if a wave of low pressure possibly develops
along the surface front. Currently the GFS is quite wet during this
period, with the ECMWF now generally dry. Will keep low end
chances/slight chance pops for this time frame for now, continuing
into the weekend. Will trend temps cooler, but this is fairly low
confidence at this time, along with the potential for any wintry
weather. Stay tuned.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...
Surface high pressure and weak s/w ridging will move across the area
on Tuesday into Wednesday, with the approach of our next system from
the west on Thursday. The surface high will build into the area from
the Deep south, resulting in a warming trend through midweek. This
will result in high temps warming from the upper 50s/lower 60s on
Tuesday into the mid to upper 60s for Wednesday, possibly lingering
into Thursday. Uncertainty increasing by late in the week into the
early weekend as the medium range guidance differ in how they handle
the next system and if a wave of low pressure possibly develops
along the surface front. Currently the GFS is quite wet during this
period, with the ECMWF now generally dry. Will keep low end
chances/slight chance pops for this time frame for now, continuing
into the weekend. Will trend temps cooler, but this is fairly low
confidence at this time, along with the potential for any wintry
weather. Stay tuned.
I'm not really disappointed in this at all. There once was a time where this would have had this place popping
Stormsfury
Member
Lets also not forget that Fayetteville, AR dropped to -20° on the 15th...
iGRXY
Member
Right now you want suppression suppression suppression if you’re wanting a storm. Without the strong -NAO this thing will almost certainly trend further north. But we don’t want that to happen until 72 hours at the earliest.
It would be something if the Carolinas got a significant winter storm outside of the mountains and foothills with a positive NAO after missing out on so many in the nearly 2 straight months it was negative
That’s exactly what I’ve been saying lol, imagine if that happens
Man that’s ------- up, ensembles retrograde that pacific ridge so much, it weakens and lower heights in the SE due to shorter wavelengths, were never gonna torch, this almost resembles that marginal January pattern, rains will be cold, wouldn’t shock me if we trend to a strong -NAO right here and cutoffs go crazy with this look 
iGRXY
Member
Well for the last decade we haven’t really had a
-NAO and would still score. Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what happens here. Most don’t give this a shot, not because the setup is bad but bc we’ve had a generally favorable pattern all winter and couldn’t score so why think something will happen now? And then this is the one to actually perform when everybody is in the dumps lol
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The pattern has supposedly been great all winter for snow here and we have one marginal storm to show for it. Might as well get a big storm when the pattern isn't so great. Not like it really matters anymore. Expect the unexpected seems to be the way our weather goes now with the climate these days. Look at what's been going on this winter in places farther south.
The pattern has most certainly not been great. Not even close to great.
True weenies for saying we haven’t been in a good pattern.. we did have a great pattern for snow in the south and south east .. but not all good patterns produce for everyone’s backyard and you gotta get over that ..everyone can always score in any pattern it’s just more or less likely depending on the pattern ... patience is a virtue but at the end of the day we live in the south and it dont snow here usually ??
Crazy how much temp anomalies match up to feb 2014 yet the outcome was still much different, esp East of the mountains
Pain
Pain
Better then a MA system right ? 
I had a fantastic today in bear oetfect wx. First, I laid out in the sun in my lawn chair in MBY this afternoon I’m near perfect wx of clear skies, light breezes, temps in the high 50s, and dewpoint way down in the 20s. Then this evening, I walked with it at a near perfect 42.
I honestly think a lot of people have forgotten what a snowstorm pattern looks like for the SE. Not talking about a modeled 5+ day pattern.True weenies for saying we haven’t been in a good pattern.. we did have a great pattern for snow in the south and south east .. but not all good patterns produce for everyone’s backyard and you gotta get over that ..everyone can always score in any pattern it’s just more or less likely depending on the pattern ... patience is a virtue but at the end of the day we live in the south and it dont snow here usually ??
Your not wrong RC
They don’t happen anymore, and won’t again
Maybe we should look at 2010 to remind ourselves of what's possible. Or even just the month of Jan 2000. (not just for the ONE storm either....we had several within about 10 days IIRC)
Holy cow, I didn’t realize the errors that are in this lol, mainly 1st sentence. I promise I’m not drunk.
Anyhow, tomorrow will be another delightful cool day though with dewpoints rising meaning not as cold tomorrow night.
Shocker 
Under hour 144 #babysteps 
Looks like Wilkes County is looking good though.
Jessy89
Member
Gefs should still have a few hits
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Not bad but could be better, need a faster S/W that doesn’t get picked up by the stuff to its west, to slow and the cold/NS trough moves out and it’s a cold rain 
Worse then last run 
Wedges 
wedges
and wedges 
wedges
and wedges
We will find a way to CAD like always
Hopefully we can get a strong enough system out west to scour, I bet something like this happens then we get a trough nearby that gets stuck
I mean, that's not a bad look for the ensembles 6 days in advance. I don't care if it's Jan, or late Feb.
How much snow we talking for CAE ? This little tick at H5 turned it into a rainstorm, exactly why I been trashing this setup
a few more trends to a stronger ridge n we talking 60s moving north
a few more trends to a stronger ridge n we talking 60s moving north
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
GFS still giving us hope for now. At least it's inside 7 days. The ice and rain we had last week was only a big snow storm 10 days out on the GFS before it went poof and turned to ice and rain.
Maxed out at 1037mb this morning. Impressive.
awesome 
LickWx
Member
Yeah the wind kicking up after midnight killed it
Sigh 