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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

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Storm5 said:
People are nuts if they think we will lock onto a solution 8 days out. The players is still there it’s just how they all setup shop . Gonna be wild swings for the next 3-4 days


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I knew when I saw the run that when I came in here the bottom of the cliff would be piled up with bodies.....no one should believe the 20"+ outputs or the big NW trend.....neither one has anymore validity over the other in this time frame....its all about the ENS and what they show.....18Z will likely be back to another SE big dog......

Its rare that we get a pattern with this kind of potential, that does not guarantee a big southern snowstorm however.....or even a average one.....that said I believe this is the one....we are overdue for something like what the 18Z GFS had last night.....I think somewhere in SC/NC someone ( maybe even a lot of someones ) gets a footer or better next weekend.
 
The CMC & GFS are night & day over the N pacific prior to day 6-7. That has a lot to do w/ where the vortex ends up. More amped N Pac/AK ridge actually holds back the TPV longer over the Canadian Rockies like the GFS. We stick a vortex in it like the CMC shows and it's a totally different story because there's more westerly momentum to kick the TPV eastward which is what we want here.

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Downeastnc said:
I knew when I saw the run that when I came in here the bottom of the cliff would be piled up with bodies.....no one should believe the 20"+ outputs or the big NW trend.....neither one has anymore validity over the other in this time frame....its all about the ENS and what they show.....18Z will likely be back to another SE big dog......

Its rare that we get a pattern with this kind of potential, that does not guarantee a big southern snowstorm however.....or even a average one.....that said I believe this is the one....we are overdue for something like what the 18Z GFS had last night.....I think somewhere in SC/NC someone ( maybe even a lot of someones ) gets a footer or better next weekend.
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One thing that we have with the pattern vs other storm patterns is cold air! Certainly a key component. There are lots of things that can go wrong, but we have the ingredients.
 
Listen the Gfs is wonky we all know that ... I say we ride the v16 and watch the ensembles as well .. they seem to swing way less than the Gfs does .. also with what Webb was saying .. the map he posted with that absolute beaut of a block above our TPV I just think once we get closer models realize how signifigant the block is and that’s why signifigant changed have been happening so close to the events .. honestly I love where we are at right now this far out .. remember what we say about being in that jackpot zone this far out :)
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Listen the Gfs is wonky we all know that ... I say we ride the v16 and watch the ensembles as well .. they seem to swing way less than the Gfs does .. also with what Webb was saying .. the map he posted with that absolute beaut of a block above our TPV I just think once we get closer models realize how signifigant the block is and that’s why signifigant changed have been happening so close to the events .. honestly I love where we are at right now this far out .. remember what we say about being in that jackpot zone this far out :)
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I honestly wish I knew where we were at this point. Lots of stuff flying around
 
I said hopefully yesterday hopefully we would get that rare instance where we keep a storm on the models the entire way through but the odds are very limited on that happening and sure enough here we are. Models flip flop continuously and this is not different. I will not be surprised to see it look even worse over the next day or 2 before starting the trend the other way. Right now I think areas north of I20 and east of the Apps look to be in the best position to see something whether it's a board wide storm or this turns into a CAD deal.
 
The differences between the GFS vs CMC & ICON are pretty obvious even by day 5. Here's a better view of the N Pac where they differ significantly. We need that PV lobe over NW Canada to migrate to Alaska briefly & restore at least some of the westerly flow in the NE Pacific early next week to advect our TPV eastward from Manitoba to Quebec

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