SnowNiner
Member
Looks like we've got a ways to go then. I know it's possible, but is it likely? Most all of the ensembles keep the PV around the same spot.
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Looks like we've got a ways to go then. I know it's possible, but is it likely? Most all of the ensembles keep the PV around the same spot.
Downeastnc
Member
Isnt that how the trend played out last week with our little snowstorm.....
Cadi40
Member
From a tentative stand point the moisture for our potential Winter Storm next week appears to be extremely slow moving. Whoever it is favored for snow in this setup will be getting quite a bit of it.
One thing I like for the overall pattern leading into this potential as well the next couple weeks is the parade of high pressures that seem to be setting up between southern Canada and across the pole into Siberia... looks to be plenty of cold air to tap into
I agree fro. This is a great look for most of NC and all you can hope for at this range in the ensemble run
This is a weenie EPS run, the pattern after ?
That pacific jet ext ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't say it's unlikely at this point or even probable, these wound up TPVs are hard to forecast more than 2-3 days out & we wouldn't need much of a change to get us there.
Yeah that's pretty much what happened and the GFS/GEFS were way too slow & north w/ it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Man, if we manage to get legit snow or sleet sometime next week, single digit lows are pretty much a lock for many.
I mean this is just impressive, now this is the coldest mean I’ve seen, many members last week we’re sorta spread out which hampered it, guess there’s more agreement (for now) with many EPS members
This would actually be a very dangerous and costly scenario .. almost scary tbh... people would be out of power for a while and with the temps that come in after ... I pray we get this ice out of here
Ice is gonna be a huge issue, yikes
To WEBB's point, and what I have been saying (and others) here is what we have with the last 3 op runs of the EURO. If you want to call it, todays 12z run was the "worse" run out of the 3. Notice where the TPV is....that's where we really don't want to see it. LAst nights run was the ultimate, right? Today's run "drags" its heels a bit with the cold push.
***Time stamp is for THUR 12z** about the time we need SHI* in place to get booming!**
12z yesterday
00z last night
12z run today
***Time stamp is for THUR 12z** about the time we need SHI* in place to get booming!**
12z yesterday
00z last night
12z run today
That’s a mean. 
How did NC fair during the big 1994 storm? That is the only time I recall ice at my house without CAD.
? 
MichaelJ
Member
We need a couple of things to change for most of the South to get snow. Verbatim this indicates a lot of ice in Bama, northern Ga, Upstate and Eastern 2/3 of NC. If we (as Webb said) can get the TPV to move east and slightly south, and get the trough in the PAC to move more East of Hawaii, then more of us will get more snow and less ice. The next 2-3 days we all need to check and see if there is any movement east/south of where it (the TPV) is currently progged to be. The Euro does have a tendency to hold back the lows in the SW too long (which would benefit us in this situation) so that would also influence how much cold air can arrive before the precip onset
It was a fairly big event for the Piedmont and Foothills... I was 17 and the house I grew up in in Concord had around an inch of sleet/snow and 1/3 inch of ice accrual. That was after highs the previous day were in the mid 70s