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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

That gfs run was an improvement imo. Pacific looked way better and gfs is still drastically changing the pieces pin wheeling around with the tpv. If you go run to run you can see the gfs emphasize random pieces of energy and the pacific just jumps around lol. Not sweating it yet. Until we get closer and these pieces of energy are sampled we have no clue how they interact with the tpv
 
I really wish I had saved more operational GFS runs over the years so that I could see what it showed at various timeframes leading up to winter storms... I really think it would be eye opening of just how off it’s been before. Some of the last 10 years I can remember a little... for example with the Christmas 2010 storm after actually picking up on that storm during the 8-10 day, it turned it into a cutter, then brought it back to a big storm for western and central NC during the 4-5 day, then squashed to miss us east during the 2-4 day before finally ending up fairly close to what actually verified the day before. I don’t bring that to say that this run is definitely not going to be reality, but to bring that a lot folks get wound up about this model that over the years is just plain out horrible in this timeframe
 
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