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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

To show what @Webberweather53 fully expected would occur with the then much weaker GEFS as regards the SSW, check this out:

GEFS Run from 5 day ago for 6Z on 1/4/21:

1609535986692.png

Now look at today's 12Z GEFS for 1/4/21 at 6Z:

1609536039411.png

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Now what about the EPS? Unlike the wildly changed GEFS, steady as a rock with hardly any change vs the run from 5 days ago thus showing how much better a model it is for SSWs!!

EPS from 5 days ago for 6Z on 1/4/21:

1609536127487.png


Brand new EPS for 1/4/21 at 6Z: I can't see any change!!

1609536235466.png
 
GaWx said:
To show what @Webberweather53 fully expected would occur with the then much weaker GEFS as regards the SSW, check this out:

GEFS Run from 5 day ago for 6Z on 1/4/21:

View attachment 61601

Now look at today's 12Z GEFS for 1/4/21 at 6Z:

View attachment 61602

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now what about the EPS? Unlike the wildly changed GEFS, steady as a rock with hardly any change vs the run from 5 days ago thus showing how much better a model it is for SSWs!!

EPS from 5 days ago for 6Z on 1/4/21:

View attachment 61603


Brand new EPS for 1/4/21 at 6Z: I can't see any change!!

View attachment 61604
Click to expand...
New one (EPS) looks even a little bit better ?
 
SD said:
At this lead I'm just looking to see if the # of hits increase run over run versus decreases or increases in the mean itself. I'd much rather have 70% of members showing 1-2 than 4% showing 25+ though the mean would be similar
Click to expand...

True. I seem to find they go hand in hand though. If there's several hits, the average will nicely increase. If there's only one or two it's usually a paltry average. But I agree in principle, the more hits is key. My argument would be the average shows that nicely. Tomato TomAto. lol.
 
KyloG said:
I would expect at least the foothills/mountains to see something out of this day 7-12 pattern.

View attachment 61621
Click to expand...
Look at how the flow changes over western Canada through the progression. If we get a bit more help just north of that, we'd be in business before too long.
 
FallsLake said:
^^Yeah, the 18z GFS is coming considerably colder after day 7 for central and eastern US folks.
Click to expand...

Definitely colder but (per the GFS) really boring after next weeks mountain snow with really not a whole lot happening through the end of the run. This thread is rather aptly named.


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Mellish says...maaaaaybeeee????

www.wsbradio.com

Change in the weather pattern expected thanks to Stratospheric Warming

Since the opening days of December I've been talking about the La Nina and the penchant for it to provide occasional wild swings in the jet stream that can keep our weather active and changeable. Then for the past several weeks I've been telling you about the possibility of a Polar Vortex...
www.wsbradio.com www.wsbradio.com


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