Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

This pretty nice look on the euro is still showing up.

 

[Ollie Williams]

This pretty nice look on the euro is still showing up.View attachment 61555View attachment 61556

That's a relatively classic look, it's just too weak and strung out IMO.

 

[LickWx]

@FallsLake screw the NAM ! I’m riding the GFS , we getting 70 . Forget about that stinking NAM ! 43 right now . Come on GFS ftw.

 

[ghost1]

I don't really agree with this too much. Maybe it's necessary to get more substantial cold for the areas in the deep south to get into the game, but many of us can do fine with what we've got (or are in striking distance of). If anything, deep cold is more suppressive and does not necessarily mean we have a better chance at getting snow. I think what we're seeing models trend towards is sufficient for many.

Clearly, this is a good trend thru the last 00z EPS:
View attachment 61528

And the last frame of that run only strengthened the cold push:
View attachment 61532

Obviously this last frame will trend in some direction, but if the current direction is towards colder, then I think we'll do alright temperature-wise once we get past the 10th or so. For now, the favored areas are towards the northern and western tiers of the board: TN, northern MS and AL seem to be in the best position verbatim from that 240 hr map. Expect this solution to change as we get closer, but not necessarily in a bad way.

I agree it’s possible to get something with what we’ve had and may get in the near term but it hasn’t paid off yet and we haven’t been able to maintain a decent snow pack to our north. (Upper Midwest running above normal) You get Arctic fronts coming thru every 10-14 days that snow pack will build and hang around. I’ll take my chances with the NW trend working on suppression... I’m ready for a change... probably wistful thinking on my part

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That's a relatively classic look, it's just too weak and strung out IMO.
View attachment 61557

Yup, still a good euro run, plenty of potential, kinda itch for a fantasy though haha

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This pretty nice look on the euro is still showing up.View attachment 61555View attachment 61556

That could def work for favored areas

 

[Ollie Williams]

The Euro still looks much better than all other modeling!

 

[Stormdoc]

Euro with the Jedi mind trick. I think this is the cold we are looking for...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wonder if this will reflect on the snow mean for the first system, although those are some solid trends for the MA

 

[RVD]

Wonder if this will reflect on the snow mean for the first system, although those are some solid trends for the MAView attachment 61568

I like the trends off the west coast... that trough moving west and the ridge getting more established... bodes well for the cold push after this system (which is when I think we should really be watching out for something).

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This looks solid for the MA

 

[Tarheel1]

These little southern stream waves look goood on paper, but we’re missing a key ingredient. Cold. If modeling is right and cold air is trapped on the other side of the globe behind that big Canadian ridge then it will take quite some time before things change. I’m still hopeful but man is this tiresome.

this ain’t it ??View attachment 61523

Once the cold gets on that side of the world, it never comes over here or moderates a ton when it does!?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh

 

[Ollie Williams]

Meh View attachment 61575

This is ugly.

 

[Snowfan]

Glenn Burns just posted about 2 hours ago about the 0z Euro on Facebook.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is ugly.
View attachment 61576

Still interesting in that D10 timeframe the euro showed but it overall wasn’t impressive on the snow mean, wish we could get -height anomalies around the NE/SE Canada

 

[KyloG]

EPS 15 day snow mean past 3 days. Strat warm peak is next week or so..."they" say it can take 2-3 weeks after to see real effects.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

For example we need something like this look below with stuff near the 50/50 region/around SE Canada , problem is, it’s Still not enough given cold hasn’t really settled in
This right here is lacking that, so this argues for better stuff further west

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[FallsLake]

@FallsLake screw the NAM ! I’m riding the GFS , we getting 70 . Forget about that stinking NAM ! 43 right now . Come on GFS ftw.

Lol. Yeah, there a big difference between the two for our area. Especially for the highs tomorrow (upper 50s NAM & ~70 GFS). The new 18z NAM is about the same. RAH grid forecast seems to be somewhere in the middle of the two.