• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Meh, if the EPS is somehow better or the same then I get a little more interested F019D8E8-5E15-4C49-A0A2-5143C1AA8AEE.png8665677B-5D0F-4F0D-913A-A12CD5275695.png27BD1BA9-C136-485B-8741-19EED612E02B.png
 
@KyloG, I updated the composite to add in some of the storms I missed that you plotted in the big dog storm composite, here's the list:
'1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '2004-02-25 00z', '2010-12-25 00z', '1983-03-25 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2016-01-20 00z', '2018-01-16 00z'
1960-02-13 00z 16.png
When comparing that to the EPS, the obvious thing that we need to change is to get the 50/50 low to trend much stronger. That has been my #1 fear with this pattern.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-0755200.png
 
Last edited:
@KyloG, I updated the composite to add in some of the storms I missed that you plotted, in the big dog storm composite, here's the list:
'1960-02-13 00z', '1960-02-14 00z', '1962-03-06 00z', '1966-01-29 00z', '1966-01-31 00z', '1969-02-15 00z', '1969-02-16 00z', '1969-02-17 00z', '1980-02-09 00z', '1980-02-10 00z', '1987-01-22 00z', '1987-01-23 00z', '1987-02-16 00z', '1987-02-17 00z', '1993-02-27 00z', '2004-02-25 00z', '2010-12-25 00z', '1983-03-25 00z', '2010-02-12 00z', '2016-01-20 00z', '2018-01-16 00z'
View attachment 61510
When comparing that to the EPS, the obvious thing that we need to change is to get the 50/50 low to trend much stronger. That has been my #1 fear with this pattern.
View attachment 61511
We’re not far off from that with the first system DDCCF83F-D5B5-4598-AC78-CA924A68395C.png
 
Does anyone know if Ral,GSO recorded wettest year on record? We where very close I think, 2cnd all time around Christmas day
GSO came up about 6/10 short. Earlier this week it appeared this wet weather was going to hit a good 12-24 hits earlier. TW
 
down to 44 here from the low 50’s earlier and the rain has been very steady so far. Quite cold as well with the wind picking up. The wedge is winning big time
 
Meh. Looks like the gefs wants to dump stuff in the southern plains lol, I’m not even worried, wonder if EPS follows A36DB79A-14E4-4B5C-9079-16966A5B52C2.png97D07B6B-94B6-4279-9AC0-322A98F0EE10.png
 
I was cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of January a couple weeks ago with the long range signals from the models, but now I want to see cross polar flow bitter cold to come down before I get my hopes built back up. The continental air masses we've seen and are on the horizon won't do much IMO
 
These little southern stream waves look goood on paper, but we’re missing a key ingredient. Cold. If modeling is right and cold air is trapped on the other side of the globe behind that big Canadian ridge then it will take quite some time before things change. I’m still hopeful but man is this tiresome.

this ain’t it ??BD655446-D121-420F-BB23-2AA146C2A080.png
 
I was cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of January a couple weeks ago with the long range signals from the models, but now I want to see cross polar flow bitter cold to come down before I get my hopes built back up. The continental air masses we've seen and are on the horizon won't do much IMO
Spot on. That blame goes on pacific. All the coldest air is not sliding into Canada ??
 
These little southern stream waves look goood on paper, but we’re missing a key ingredient. Cold. If modeling is right and cold air is trapped on the other side of the globe behind that big Canadian ridge then it will take quite some time before things change. I’m still hopeful but man is this tiresome.

this ain’t it ??View attachment 61523
Seems like we keep going through the same thing with these models every winter either we have the moisture with no cold air or we have the cold air but no moisture wash rinse repeat... I mean but unfortunately something has got to give because I’m sure things are going to change for the better eventually
 
Back
Top