Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[KyloG]

The Pacific looks different in the composite. But I guess we have to take what we get. Do not look at the LR 0z or 6z GFS OPs, btw.

I filtered out some big events that looked similar pac to what's coming up. What you think? Missing the big 50/50 but I think/hope that evolves.

 

[Rain Cold]

I filtered out some big events that looked similar pac to what's coming up. What you think? Missing the big 50/50 but I think/hope that evolves.

View attachment 61482View attachment 61483

Yeah that looks pretty good. I think a 50/50 will show up at some point, given that block hangs around.

 

[KyloG]

Yeah that looks pretty good. I think a 50/50 will show up at some point, given that block hangs around.

I am cherry picking winners too . I am sure patterns like this come up and don't produce more times that not.

But, EPS really giving me the Feb 87/04 vibe.

 

[KyloG]

Interesting seeing the evolution of the trop PV. It's pushed off pole to Siberia....but then starts to stretch. Does it split and send a piece towards NA/Europe.

 

[Nomanslandva]

How did Texas get 12” plus of snow and Columbia gets nothing? They are the same latitude? I guess it has to do with March being Columbia’s snowiest month, and I don’t get that because of the March sun angle?

There's and old saying something like nothing between Texas and the north pole but barbed wire fence. So basically, blame the mountains.

 

[KyloG]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

 

[Clem282340]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

View attachment 61489

How about klqk please

 

[KyloG]

How about klqk please

 

[smast16]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

View attachment 61489

You're posting pictures with pretty colors. Never apologize!

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

 

[Rain Cold]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

Your eyes are good.

 

[Stormdoc]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

Meh, with this pattern change I would not trust the long range GFS further than I could digitally throw it. All ensembles overnight keep the -NAO strong

 

[tennessee storm]

Do my eyes deceive me or am I seeing no -NAO on the overnight GFS runs?

yeah, it doesnt matter much anyways, it hasnt helped us out yet, and it wont till the pacific becomes much more favorable for us....

 

[Chazwin]

Meh, with this pattern change I would not trust the long range GFS further than I could digitally throw it. All ensembles overnight keep the -NAO strong

I personally don’t trust the long range GFS no matter what pattern we’re in

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Meh, with this pattern change I would not trust the long range GFS further than I could digitally throw it. All ensembles overnight keep the -NAO strong

I personally don’t trust the long range GFS no matter what pattern we’re in

Good advice guys...... Stick with the ensembles. They always lead the way on long range forecasting.

 

[SD]

Your eyes are good.

Eps snow depth mean after day 10 actually jumped for us. Still sucks at .2 but that's the highest we've had in a really really long time on the eps

 

[BHS1975]

Eps snow depth mean after day 10 actually jumped for us. Still sucks at .2 but that's the highest we've had in a really really long time on the eps

I mean any snow on the ground is better than the last 2 years.


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[SD]

I mean any snow on the ground is better than the last 2 years.


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Agreed as you can see above where ollie posted the members there are a couple of big dogs showing. Hopefully we can keep the positivity going over the next few days

 

[SD]

GSO EPS snow matrix modernweenie

Sorry I am posting so much, haven't really had a chance to look at models with how busy work has been.

View attachment 61489

Gotta like the number of members showing something and really hinting at 2 maybe 3 systems there.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Your eyes are good.

Only because 2020 is hindsight! (sorry, I couldn't resist)