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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
Wow....
do you approve @Rain Cold View attachment 63537View attachment 63538
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Yes! Cash money. This is about the best we can do. IF this ends up verifying, we have very cold air nearby, very favorable teleconnections, an active pattern, and a pretty favorable longwave trough orientation. I think generally, the biggest issue would be suppression. But I'd way rather risk that and have too much cold than deal with these stupid marginal air masses where the warm nose runs up to the moon and where the frozen/liquid demarcation zone runs NW from the extreme upstate through west-central VA.
 
So who will be right...
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Rain Cold said:
Yes! Cash money. This is about the best we can do. IF this ends up verifying, we have very cold air nearby, very favorable teleconnections, an active pattern, and a pretty favorable longwave trough orientation. I think generally, the biggest issue would be suppression. But I'd way rather risk that and have too much cold than deal with these stupid marginal air masses where the warm nose runs up to the moon and where the frozen/liquid demarcation zone runs NW from the extreme upstate through west-central VA.
Click to expand...
I love clippers, more than you NC peeps
 
This shortwave looked not half bad around hour 180 on the GFS, but that northern stream orientation is the exact opposite of what we want. The big trough over the midwest + ridge over the NE broadly supports ascent and lowering surface pressures in-between, and the shortwave adds to that by creating an even more diffluent flow (look at how the contours fan out over the Lakes region). In other words, this looks like a setup for a Great Lakes low instead of a banana high.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
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Yup, that trough over the midwest eventually swings through and gives a good cold push. I'd rather watch for an event on the backside of that cold air push (as the trough moves into a 50/50 position). GFS did show a shortwave similar to what I'm imagining but it'd need to be a lot further south or have some southern stream support or something.
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Used to be when you see a storm moving east down in TX, AR with snow on the northern side, you'd expect winter precip east of the mountains. Nice to see those storm tracks show up again, but we suck for cold air. We'll need to wait I guess until the arctic opens up around the 20th. Except that's when the SE ridge wants to poke up. Not sure I see a win here.
 
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