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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Webberweather53 said:
Well we pretty much know exactly what we're getting w/ this +PNA/-NAO look that we have right now. Cold rain, cold rain, & more cold rain. Simply isn't enough cold air around for a big dog, don't see much other choice but for us to take a gamble on a SE ridge and stick a giant block north of Alaska.
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I like the ballsiness ! It’s what I have been saying let’s take a gamble y’all!
 
Rain Cold said:
Ok my bad. Let's do a retake:

I really like how the lowering of heights out west create a nice moist SW flow, while the all-out arctic attack invades from the north. As usual, it will have no trouble spilling over the mountains, thanks to the strong, stationary 50/50 low that will set up and be held in place by the robust west-based -NAO block. The 50/50 will set up strong confluence in the NE and anchor in a strong arctic high, providing an excellent cold air feed into any waves emanating from the moist southwesterly flow. Going to be epic, so buckle up!!
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Robert, is that you!
 
Charlotte 56 Raleigh 49 and Greensboro 50. What the heck man. Looking at 10 days up and down the east. DC looks milder than normal , so does NYC , Atlanta looks normal , Columbia and Wilmington slightly below, Nashville normal. But Raleigh ? Raleigh looks a solid 4-5 degrees below average next 7 days. What the actual hell.
 
Just an observation, when we get true arctic outbreaks, they usually last a good bit longer than forecast and don’t warm up as quickly as models often want to or show. Because when the cold hits, the local met are always quick to point out the warm up on the models, then they get pushed back atleast 2-5 days or more. Watch if y’all get a good cold outbreaks down there
 
Lickwx said:
Charlotte 56 Raleigh 49 and Greensboro 50. What the heck man. Looking at 10 days up and down the east. DC looks milder than normal , so does NYC , Atlanta looks normal , Columbia and Wilmington slightly below, Nashville normal. But Raleigh ? Raleigh looks a solid 4-5 degrees below average next 7 days. What the actual hell.
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Snow cover
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Look in the dictionary next to “cold” and you’ll see this graphic View attachment 63180
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Straight cash money. I just like this look. It's got everything you need except one thing. It has the big Greenland Block, a big tall ridge spiking deep into the arctic circle, cross-polar flow, a big -AO, energy coming out of the southwest, a 50/50 low, a great feed of cold air into the SE, and no SE ridge. The ONLY thing missing is a time stamp of Forecast Hour: [Analysis]. Pay me my money! In cash!

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png
 
Hopefully the GFS is doing its usual now you see it now you don’t trick only for the threat to come back down the line. It would be nice to see some run to run consistency but what are you gonna do.


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Sunday/Monday system still has my attention alot with cold air in place and a little suppress to it. Gefs members are showing more north than what the OP run does. If that happens watch out!!
 
Not liking what I am seeing on the models. This pattern change looks like it is being pushed back.


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12 hours ago everyone was so hyped on the next couple if weeks, and now it's all doom and gloom. If we don't get a good winter storm this month with how folks were saying this is the best possible pattern and setup we could have then I am seriously done here and paying attention to what anyone says about the pattern and models. Just a waste of time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
12 hours ago everyone was so hyped on the next couple if weeks, and now it's all doom and gloom. If we don't get a good winter storm this month with how folks were saying this is the best possible pattern and setup we could have then I am seriously done here and paying attention to what anyone says about the pattern and models. Just a waste of time.
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Put it in the Whamby thread.
 
Rain Cold said:
6z GFS LR was just fine
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Winters over, x model sucked, I thought the trends were good, if it doesn't snow by x date its over, yesterday everyone said things are good, mby went from 6 inches at 330 hours to 0 at 324 storm cancel, this model sucks at x range but I'mma post it anyway
 
SD said:
Winters over, x model sucked, I thought the trends were good, if it doesn't snow by x date its over, yesterday everyone said things are good, mby went from 6 inches at 330 hours to 0 at 324 storm cancel, this model sucks at x range but I'mma post it anyway
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You did that right ! Good job ! You get a pack of Nathan’s weenies as reward .
 
Models are notorious for being wishy washy around the timing of big large scale pattern changes....based on the indices we should get a great winter weather pattern for the SE and the models hint at it some runs, but it wont consistently show up till we are actually in that pattern....the models will trend better as we get closer to the 15th or so.....
 
Downeastnc said:
Models are notorious for being wishy washy around the timing of big large scale pattern changes....based on the indices we should get a great winter weather pattern for the SE and the models hint at it some runs, but it wont consistently show up till we are actually in that pattern....the models will trend better as we get closer to the 15th or so.....
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My only fear is that we get a -PNA and SER. I'm not too scared yet, but keep in mind that this was the pattern models had last December. The only real difference is that we have a strat warm, so our AO seems much more likely.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5676800.png
 
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