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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

It is surprising isn't it to see really good h5 and so little cold.
Well tbh, it's not that really great of a pattern. It's a really great block, but we need a cold air source, that is, if we're talking widespread wintry weather. I think most of the excitement is because we finally have blocking and because we are not torching. But we will still need cold air injected into the pattern at some point.. It's no surprise we aren't seeing fantasy snowstorms. I mean, I think we will. Honestly. But it's going to take a while.
 
Yep daily records/averages like that can easily be skewed by outlier events or multiple hits on a single day.
What's interesting is if you look at the rdu data you are more likely to get a 4-6+ event in the 2nd half of Feb into early March than you are from 12/1-2/14
Why do you think it is that Raleigh is more likely to get a big snow event in late Feb and early March than earlier in the winter when it's usually a lot colder ?
 
Well tbh, it's not that really great of a pattern. It's a really great block, but we need a cold air source, that is, if we're talking widespread wintry weather. I think most of the excitement is because we finally have blocking and because we are not torching. But we will still need cold air injected into the pattern at some point.. It's no surprise we aren't seeing fantasy snowstorms. I mean, I think we will. Honestly. But it's going to take a while.

The likelihood of snow for most of us is low. That’s just life. But this pattern is gonna produce well for the mountains for sure. Also for the upper south I’d think. Maybe even some epic amounts.


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The likelihood of snow for most of us is low. That’s just life. But this pattern is gonna produce well for the mountains for sure. Maybe even some epic amounts.


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Yeah I expect this is going to be a banner year for the mountains and eventually for the lower Mid-Atlantic. The SE as a whole should do pretty well also, provided that block hangs around for a good while. Indications are, at this point, it will.
 
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This is just dumb.


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Why do you think it is that Raleigh is more likely to get a big snow event in late Feb and early March than earlier in the winter when it's usually a lot colder ?

More of a thermal gradient as the lower latitudes start warming which leads to stronger lows, wavelengths start changing, probably a little higher atmospheric moisture content.
 
Haven't seen more than an inch here from 94-01, 12-20 in December. I hate December ?
I think the recent December 2017 and 2018 snowstorms have led to a recency bias that makes some perceive December as a snowier month than it actually is. Not all of the board even cashed in on either of those two.
 
Well tbh, it's not that really great of a pattern. It's a really great block, but we need a cold air source, that is, if we're talking widespread wintry weather. I think most of the excitement is because we finally have blocking and because we are not torching. But we will still need cold air injected into the pattern at some point.. It's no surprise we aren't seeing fantasy snowstorms. I mean, I think we will. Honestly. But it's going to take a while.

Agreed. The ensemble snow mean is low for that exact reason, indicative that it's just not cold enough yet. Hopefully we find some late January.
 
Probably skewed by some storms
It is. 1927, 1960, and 1980 all had 6+ inches at CLT. It’s funny because if you look at average number of days with snowfall then January is first, but there have been enough big dogs after 2/15 that there is a number of days in there that average more than January
 
Agreed. The ensemble snow mean is low for that exact reason, indicative that it's just not cold enough yet. Hopefully we find some late January.

If we are depending on the SSW, it wouldn’t be before then.


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Does anything else matter in winter if we don't get snow?
Personally I want the cold no matter what happens in regards to snow simply because I enjoy the different seasons. I’ve been every bit as frustrated with our cool springtime as of late as I’ve been at 75-80 degrees in January and February. At least not torching during the winter delays the mosquitoes for a bit living where I do, I know I lot of peach and berry farmers that have struggled the last few years due to the very early blooming followed by the inevitable hard freeze
 
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