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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Rick said:
This thread has the right name be glad when this crap fest month is over
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Rick said:
Lol i dont like this month and i doubt we see snow here ill believe it when the ground is coated til then im not watching models anymore they usually turn to trash last minute anyways fot our area
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Put these types of posts in the Whamby Thread.
 
SD said:
I think some people are picking the wrong time to punt
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If we work through this with nothing for most of the board, I will gladly join everyone is crapping on everything
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Finally got around to researching how many instances we've scored in a pattern like this and historical probs of at least T of snow. The probabilities are hilariously large
 
Webberweather53 said:
Finally got around to researching how many instances we've scored in a pattern like this and historical probs of at least T of snow. The probabilities are hilariously large
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It really does check most of the climo boxes for us, you have to think whatever we can manage over the next 7 days is likely the appetizer to the main course later in the month
 
Rick said:
Lol i dont like this month and i doubt we see snow here ill believe it when the ground is coated til then im not watching models anymore they usually turn to trash last minute anyways fot our area
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So here we watch models and see what happens. Sometimes we are happy and sad about it. But it’s data and analog driven and it’s a place to learn. If you’re a see it to believe type, the world is your oyster. The banter thread too


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ATLwxfan said:
So here we watch models and see what happens. Sometimes we are happy and sad about it. But it’s data and analog driven and it’s a place to learn. If you’re a see it to believe type, the world is your oyster. The banter thread too


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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You know what youre right we just have to have faith sometimes in stuff but life usually doesnt go our way i like the learning aspect of the weather but i don't want to watch models 24 7 especially when they trend south
 
Webberweather53 said:
Finally got around to researching how many instances we've scored in a pattern like this and historical probs of at least T of snow. The probabilities are hilariously large
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SD said:
It really does check most of the climo boxes for us, you have to think whatever we can manage over the next 7 days is likely the appetizer to the main course later in the month
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Sounds like if we don't get a good snow out of this then what we thought we needed to get one around here just doesn't apply anymore.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Sounds like if we don't get a good snow out of this then what we thought we needed to get one around here just doesn't apply anymore.
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Depends if you are speaking regionally, locally within the RAH forecast region, or your backyard. Large scale patterns at D10-20 may not be small scale snow events in our backyard at D0 but they could be elsewhere in the state or region
 
ajr said:
I was wondering this -- anything more specific you can share?
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So, I looked into this and periods where we had -AO/-NAO/-WPO/-EPO of all at least 0.5 sigma magnitude with a PNA that was greater than -0.5 sigma for at least 3 consecutive days and then adding/subtracting 3 days from those periods to get a true sense of the pattern's response, I ended up w/ 22 cases. In GSO & RDU since 1950 in those instances where we had this aforementioned teleconnection configuration we saw at least a trace of snow ~80% of the time, and accumulating snow ~40-50% of cases. The frequency of accumulating snow days didn't look significantly different from climo at RDU however I don't think there are enough cases or a large enough snow climo or sample of days surrounding these favorable periods at RDU where we can make any assumptions in this regard.

Some really big storms in/around these periods though like the blizzard of 96, Dec 1989 Xmas snow in coastal SE US, snowjam '82, the epic cold wave of Jan 77 that dropped snow in Florida, etc.

So in essence, I think we can say that it's likely gonna snow during the Jan 15-25 period in central NC, accumulating snow is probably coin flip odds.
 
Webb, what would it take for this upcoming pattern to produce something by the likes of January 2000 or February 2004, regarding the Carolinas.
 
Cadi40 said:
Webb, what would it take for this upcoming pattern to produce something by the likes of January 2000 or February 2004, regarding the Carolinas.
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It's gonna take some synoptic-mesoscale good luck. It's pretty rare for me to say this, and I'll be brutally honest, there's almost nothing more we can do pattern-wise to improve our chances of snow in late Jan. This pattern we're about to see is literally as good as it gets
 
With the PNA negative, it's going to rain, unless we have a strong high up to the north. You can see on the anomaly map posted above that many of us are barely normal, while the bulk of the cold stays north and west. Hopefully, either that is wrong or we can procure a nice CAD event via the aforementioned stong high. Otherwise, it will be overrunning rain.
 
Rain Cold said:
With the PNA negative, it's going to rain, unless we have a strong high up to the north. You can see on the anomaly map posted above that many of us are barely normal, while the bulk of the cold stays north and west. Hopefully, either that is wrong or we can procure a nice CAD event via the aforementioned stong high. Otherwise, it will be overrunning rain.
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pajamakid (1).jpg
 
Rain Cold said:
With the PNA negative, it's going to rain, unless we have a strong high up to the north. You can see on the anomaly map posted above that many of us are barely normal, while the bulk of the cold stays north and west. Hopefully, either that is wrong or we can procure a nice CAD event via the aforementioned stong high. Otherwise, it will be overrunning rain.
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I'm glad I'm not the only one who didn't think that look was all that great. Surely its workable but could really go bad a few days later. But maybe its wrong or we won't even care if we can score the next two weeks.
 
Rain Cold said:
With the PNA negative, it's going to rain, unless we have a strong high up to the north. You can see on the anomaly map posted above that many of us are barely normal, while the bulk of the cold stays north and west. Hopefully, either that is wrong or we can procure a nice CAD event via the aforementioned stong high. Otherwise, it will be overrunning rain.
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That’s the problem with NPAC blocking and exactly why I wanted to stay away from it, but I’m sure there’s no shortage of N/S On top/maybe a TPV, the risk of getting vodka cold is a risk of a ridge flex below us, I think we’re fine right now tho, feb 2014 wasn’t even a +PNA yet it was vodka cold
 
SD said:
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Ok my bad. Let's do a retake:

I really like how the lowering of heights out west create a nice moist SW flow, while the all-out arctic attack invades from the north. As usual, it will have no trouble spilling over the mountains, thanks to the strong, stationary 50/50 low that will set up and be held in place by the robust west-based -NAO block. The 50/50 will set up strong confluence in the NE and anchor in a strong arctic high, providing an excellent cold air feed into any waves emanating from the moist southwesterly flow. Going to be epic, so buckle up!!
 
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