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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Webberweather53 said:
Lmao literally the exact opposite. Gosh we suck at seasonal forecasting...
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SSWE really has changed it up, I posted this earlier in the whamby thread but looks like we can maybe add another year now to the list of La Niña PV disruptions/SSWE
 
Ollie Williams said:
EPS weeklies 6 run trend, what a horrible model.
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Idk if calling it "horrible" is very fair. Forecasting details beyond 3 or so weeks is beyond the ability of any model. In fact, one of the big realizations of chaos theory was the fact that it's impossible to produce an accurate deterministic forecast beyond about a month, even if our measurements of the atmosphere were very accurate. Like @SD says, after a certain point the ensemble members are so noisy that they stop reflecting the details of the model's initial conditions and start reflecting the steadier, larger-scale forcings/patterns (things like ENSO).

To that end, the weeklies do a pretty decent job. If anything, this just reflects how lucky we are to be eyeing such a favorable pattern during a La Nina.
 
SD said:
Yeah. I mean they may not but it certainly seems that in the past couple years the weeklies that look good/bad in the really long range are typically a climo look then the wheels fall off as you get closer to real time
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It has panned out that way seemingly more often than not. I keep forgetting past teachings of this.
 
RVD said:
Idk if calling it "horrible" is very fair. Forecasting details beyond 3 or so weeks is beyond the ability of any model. In fact, one of the big realizations of chaos theory was the fact that it's impossible to produce an accurate deterministic forecast beyond about a month, even if our measurements of the atmosphere were very accurate. Like @SD says, after a certain point the ensemble members are so noisy that they stop reflecting the details of the model's initial conditions and start reflecting the steadier, larger-scale forcings/patterns (things like ENSO).

To that end, the weeklies do a pretty decent job. If anything, this just reflects how lucky we are to be eyeing such a favorable pattern during a La Nina.
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SSWE for the win, imagine if we didn’t have that
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
so glad we’re not looking at this in the LR like I thought we would be a month or so ago at this time View attachment 61361But we’re looking at this instead
View attachment 61360
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Yeah it’s pretty much the complete opposite.. SSWE ftw lordd what we can do with a -AO/+PNA/—NAO (west-based).. I’m very happy to be conscious enough to follow this god-like 09-10 pattern.. just in time ? like Eric Webber said, I think we begin during the transition which is obviously beginning now will favor mid-Atlantic/mountainous areas of NC and extreme NGA follow by an increased likelihood of cold and snow late Jan into at least early February for much of the south and I think I would be willing to bet I-20 gets involved in this before this is all over.. fun times ahead everyone should be thrilled ❄️ ⛄️ is coming!!!
 
Seeing that run of the Euro Weeklies has got to get you at least intrigued for what could be coming into play. I know the Weeklies are far from perfect in terms of accuracy and the do gear towards climo the further out they go, but to see them putting out 3 inches of snow for CLT is exciting. I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen it give CLT as much as 2 inches.
 
EastAtlwx said:
Yeah it’s pretty much the complete opposite.. SSWE ftw lordd what we can do with a -AO/+PNA/—NAO (west-based).. I’m very happy to be conscious enough to follow this god-like 09-10 pattern.. just in time ? like Eric Webber said, I think we begin during the transition which is obviously beginning now will favor mid-Atlantic/mountainous areas of NC and extreme NGA follow by an increased likelihood of cold and snow late Jan into at least early February for much of the south and I think I would be willing to bet I-20 gets involved in this before this is all over.. fun times ahead everyone should be thrilled ❄ ⛄ is coming!!!
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Yes... the looks we’re seeing are definitely ones that can could get us a good long overrunning Southern Slider which is something that we are so overdue for.
 
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