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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

packfan98 said:
Pattern Loaded...
gfs_asnow_seus_65.png
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That would be a winter for the ages here. We haven't had anything like that in decades.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we could, something like January 88 may be on the table if we take full advantage of this pattern

January 1988 isn't a horrible analog at 500mb, deep troughs sliding underneath a weak west-based -NAO block coupled w/ -EPO trying to dislodge the polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago close to peak climo. This year's pattern honestly looks better than Jan 88 w/ a stronger -NAO & -AO to boot

View attachment 62960
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I would love to experience a storm like January 1988 again. 18 hours of snowfall, mostly during the daytime, piling up to a foot of powder and temperatures in the upper teens. I was too young at the time to appreciate just how rare that was.
 
accu35 said:
Not to brag, but I had 3 opportunities plus this weeks trip to chase this year. Normally i dont chase this much but PTO days are good to have. It would be wonderful to chase this week and come home back to Bama to another snowstorm
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I haven’t chase yet but if this storm down south where you guys at keeps showing up throughout the week im definitely snow chasing back to home to Tuscaloosa
 
Rick said:
Meteorologist in north Alabama not optimistic on snowfall :(
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NWS Huntsville in their morning discussion is just saying uncertainty for the Monday event is significant right now and not much else. They do mention the snow possibility Thursday night.
 
Here a nice Link to have Booked marked in your web browser if it is not already as we get closer to the different potential events. Just zoom in to you particular backyard and click the closest reporting station. This is for day before or day of event. Not sure how accurate it is but fun to play with...

NCEP SREF Plume Viewer

www.spc.noaa.gov www.spc.noaa.gov
 
crecre9 said:
NWS Huntsville in their morning discussion is just saying uncertainty for the Monday event is significant right now and not much else. They do mention the snow possibility Thursday night.
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I think our local meteorologist are being very consevarive almost a joke
 
Montanasnow30 said:
Central Alabama is looking good with this run
View attachment 62913
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Verbatim, this track looks fantastic but notice the low outruns its high pressure and pulls it down on the back side and keeps stuff primarily rain in GA and SC. We don't want THIS to happen. Need that high staying more in tandem keeping the cold feed.
 
Rick said:
I think our local meteorologist are being very consevarive almost a joke
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I agree with them. No reason to say a whole lot about it, they have no idea what will happen yet. Its still six days out and while the pattern is great, we should manage our expectations. Its still the south, and we could get rain, or even flurries while watching those to our south get buried.
 
crecre9 said:
I agree with them. No reason to say a whole lot about it, they have no idea what will happen yet. Its still six days out and while the pattern is great, we should manage our expectations. Its still the south, and we could get rain, or even flurries while watching those to our south get buried.
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I was talking about thursday night nam is showing snow here and they hardly eanna mention we will see a flake
 
Brick Tamland said:
What is the date for the end of the run? Everyone seems to be focused on the Friday and Saturday threat right now. No one is talking much about the Monday threat.
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There's a thread for it

January 11th-12th Southern Slider

We are at the 7 day window, and the trends are getting better. I figured it was time to differentiate this storm potential from the overall pattern discussion. Fire away!!
southernwx.com
 
End of the 6z GFS from this morning, but this would be the most beautiful snow I could ever ask for. 1609861542693.png

Mid 20's with no fear of the warm nose, Lift all through the DGZ... This would probably be greater that 10:1 ratio. Like dream snow folks, the stuff of legends.

Ok sorry, i'll put my weenie cap away again.
 
Arcc said:
Would be historic here. I don’t know how long it’s been since Central AL had two 6-8” snows a week or so a part.
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Quite possibly you’d have to go all of the way back to the middle of Feb of 1895 to find the last time C AL had two widespread 6-8” snows within a week of each other! That also was the only time on record KATL had two major snows within an entire winter. But that was during a much colder period than the upcoming. It was absolutely frigid during that coldest Feb on record.
 
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To @NoSnowATL and anyone else who may think Maxar “hates cold” (lol), check this out from this morning:

“Changing Pacific Supports Colder Pattern
The 11-15 Day features a pattern in transition, as the +PNA wanes and ridging becomes more focused over the eastern Pacific. This is a more typical pattern for La Niña, yielding some colder trends across the Mid-Continent and South in the latter part of the period. Among recent La Niñas are two winters with Arctic blocking and a similar overall pattern as is projected late in the 11-15 Day period. They suggest increased cold support associated with the pattern. Our 16-20 Day forecast reflects this. The risk is that the transition to colder occurs more quickly than is forecast. -BH”

Maxar is citing winters of 2000-1 and 2010-11 here because they both had high latitude type blocking.
 
GaWx said:
To @NoSnowATL and anyone else who may think Maxar “hates cold” (lol), check this out from this morning:

“Changing Pacific Supports Colder Pattern
The 11-15 Day features a pattern in transition, as the +PNA wanes and ridging becomes more focused over the eastern Pacific. This is a more typical pattern for La Niña, yielding some colder trends across the Mid-Continent and South in the latter part of the period. Among recent La Niñas are two winters with Arctic blocking and a similar overall pattern as is projected late in the 11-15 Day period. They suggest increased cold support associated with the pattern. Our 16-20 Day forecast reflects this. The risk is that the transition to colder occurs more quickly than is forecast. -BH”

Maxar is citing winters of 2000-1 and 2010-11 here because they both had high latitude type blocking.
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Fake news
 
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