Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[whatalife]

No complaints here for days 10-15...

You can also see the path most of the storms want to take in the last 7 days on the EPS.

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[Myfrotho704_]

This is all I need to see right now.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Not a bad trend with more negative heights in the Atlantic near the 50/50 region. More of that = More snow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Wave sliding I’m under that mega block. Areas that do well with marginal cold (TN/NC) should be on standby imo. Everyone else, enjoy the show.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

I would think this pattern would yield opportunities for good overrunning that would be good for Birmingham over to Columbia. If Columbia 0's out again this year it will be their longest streak ever without receiving at least an inch of snow. If this pattern locks in from mid Jan until mid Feb I'd think it'd be hard for even CAE to zero out.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I would think this pattern would yield opportunities for good overrunning that would be good for Birmingham over to Columbia. If Columbia 0's out again this year it will be their longest streak ever without receiving at least an inch of snow. If this pattern locks in from mid Jan until mid Feb I'd think it'd be hard for even CAE to zero out.

Wow! You know things are good when Grumpy Cat is optimistic!

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Wave sliding I’m under that mega block. Areas that do well with marginal cold (TN/NC) should be on standby imo. Everyone else, enjoy the show.

I think we'll be fine after mid month. It'll suck watching the mid Atlantic score again, and they will once or twice before us. But you hold that block and lay down snow up there and keep getting storms stuck in the 50/50 location I can't see any reason not to think we reel in 1 or 2.

 

[Spurs up]

I would think this pattern would yield opportunities for good overrunning that would be good for Birmingham over to Columbia. If Columbia 0's out again this year it will be their longest streak ever without receiving at least an inch of snow. If this pattern locks in from mid Jan until mid Feb I'd think it'd be hard for even CAE to zero out.

overrunning events are my fav

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Wow! You know things are good when Grumpy Cat is optimistic!

Lol I told these guys I can be if the need arises. It just hasn't been anything to catch my attention since I joined this board in early 2019!

 

[SD]

Lol I told these guys I can be if the need arises. It just hasn't been anything to catch my attention since I joined this board in early 2019!

What's happening.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

overrunning events are my fav

I think it's really the bread and butter for most of this board actually that has been missing since 2011.

 

[Arcc]

What’s a good analog that had a +PNA/-NAO @Ollie Williams
This is damn insane View attachment 61344

That pattern and the 558dm line sitting across central AL is straight up money.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Good thing I got my bread, milk, and toilet paper today.

 

[Mitch West]

Quick question that I am sure can be easily answered by some of you, in a blocking pattern like what is showing up, what exactly is supplying the cold air? I see what looks like a +PNA trying to develop with the -NAO. But I guess I just don't understand where the cold air is being supplied from fully I guess. It's obvious we would be dealing with marginal set ups to begin this transition, but at least we are entering a favored climo period.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Quick question that I am sure can be easily answered by some of you, in a blocking pattern like what is showing up, what exactly is supplying the cold air? I see what looks like a +PNA trying to develop with the -NAO. But I guess I just don't understand where the cold air is being supplied from fully I guess. It's obvious we would be dealing with marginal set ups to begin this transition, but at least we are entering a favored climo period.



View attachment 61355


View attachment 61357

This may help you by looking at the H5 configuration without anomalies. Basically, the -NAO displaces the cold southward, and the +PNA prevents the mild Pacific air from flowing in.

 

[Mitch West]

This may help you by looking at the H5 configuration without anomalies. Basically, the +PNA displaces the cold southward, and the +PNA prevents the mild pacific air from flowing in.
View attachment 61358

Ahh got ya! So it's likely for people deeper in the SE, we need a +PNA to pan out. Otherwise, we are dealing with mainly marginal set ups.

Thank you for the help too, that does help to break it down better.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Ahh got ya! So it's likely for people deeper in the SE, we need a +PNA to pan out. Otherwise, we are dealing with mainly marginal set ups.

Thank you for the help too, that does help to break it down better.

Tbh we're probably dealing with marginal setups regardless even with the PNA for a bit. Canada has been flooded with Pac air for awhile. But its still cold up there and with the PNA help it is workable and it should be able to cool down up there significantly now, especially with peak climo.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

so glad we’re not looking at this in the LR like I thought we would be a month or so ago at this time But we’re looking at this instead

 

[Ollie Williams]

Ahh got ya! So it's likely for people deeper in the SE, we need a +PNA to pan out. Otherwise, we are dealing with mainly marginal set ups.

Thank you for the help too, that does help to break it down better.

Yeah, the best look IMO is for an amped up wave to come out of the Pacific, with a +PNA behind it. Then it moves across the south as it phases with a 50/50 low. That's our best look, and not too far off for that happening.

 

[Chazwin]

Got a pretty good feeling that we’re gonna hand off the first storm or two in this pattern to the mid Atlantic. We could use a little snow cover to our north to help further lock in this great pattern. As we see a few storms run their course thru the first half of the month and lay some snow down to our north, the Greenland block begins to couple with the stratosphere, & continues retrograding poleward and westward, the air masses that plunge southward will become increasingly deeper/colder as we get into mid-January

Hence, I think the mid Atlantic and perhaps the mountains could score here inside the first 10-12 days of the January. Our window in the SE probably does not legitimately open up until about Jan 15 or so given the above info, but it should last for basically the rest of January at a minimum and given the SSWE, February is also looking favorable atm

Yeah, it would definitely be nice to see about a 1036 mb High sitting in place in New England pushing cold air down over snowpack while it’s held in place by good blocking.