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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Webberweather53 said:
The pattern around the 20th can definitely support a storm like this

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Yeah, the 6z gfs gives me about 20” of digital snow over the next two weeks. I’m hoping for one good snow of at least 4” that covers up every blade of grass. Obviously, this is a favorable pattern with a number of opportunities. Fun times!
 
Post from James Spann this morning
SNOW????? You will see snow maps plastered all over social media (mostly from people who don’t have a fundamental idea of how NWP – Numerical Weather Prediction – actually works) about the system that will impact Alabama Sunday night into Monday. Looking at deterministic model output for a system this far out really isn’t productive; it is best to use ensemble model output and probabilistic forecasts.

An ensemble is a set of forecasts that present the range of future weather possibilities. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. These variations represent the inevitable uncertainty in the initial conditions and approximations in the models. They produce a range of possible weather conditions.

For now, the American model (the GFS) suggests the chance of snow greater than one inch for North Alabama is 10-20 percent; the European ensemble is a bit more aggressive with 20-30 percent probabilities. There is simply no way now to resolve specific details and provide a meaningful forecast, it is just something to watch. This system could bring a signifiant winter storm to parts of the Deep South, or just a cold rain. We will begin to have a good idea of what to expect late this week.F358EC8C-0AC9-466E-8BF9-733513BF66E5.png
 
The pattern ~Jan 20 on both the GEFS & EPS is honestly nothing short of legendary.

Like 2013-14, we're starting to see a legit -EPO push into the arctic that's forcing the tropospheric polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago towards south-central Canada, but like 2009-10/2010-11, we have a very strong/persistent -AO/west-based -NAO thanks to a major mid-winter SSWE. And to top it off we're doing all this during peak winter climo!

It's so rare to see us get the best both worlds, but it actually looks like that might be the case here in late January.

Knowing what might be coming around the corner, my hype levels are thru the roof right now.

Anything we get prior to mid-month looks like a bonus.


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Webberweather53 said:
The pattern ~Jan 20 on both the GEFS & EPS is honestly nothing short of legendary.

Like 2013-14, we're starting to see a legit -EPO push into the arctic that's forcing the tropospheric polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago towards south-central Canada, but like 2009-10/2010-11, we have a very strong/persistent -AO/west-based -NAO thanks to a major mid-winter SSWE. And to top it off we're doing all this during peak winter climo!

It's so rare to see us get the best both worlds, but it actually looks like that might be the case here in late January.

Knowing what might be coming around the corner, my hype levels are thru the roof right now.

Anything we get prior to mid-month looks like a bonus.


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Pants obliterated!!


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KyloG said:
ATL top snowfall composite v/s what EPS/GEFS spitting out.

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The forecasted pattern is actually even better than the composite of big ATL snows lol.

That's arguably the best hemispheric z500 I've ever seen for snow down here, not sure how anyone could look at that and given this anything less than a 9 out of 10 in terms of planetary-scale favorability. I can't recall many times we have seen a -EPO, -WPO, west-based -NAO, +PNA, & legit -AO all simultaneously, esp in the heart of our climo for cold/snow.
 
Meteorologist in north Alabama not optimistic on snowfall :(
 
Why has the GEFS had so many less snowy solutions compared to the EPS. Is this it’s warm bias at this range? It’s just crazy because we’ve seen several op runs consecutively now supportive of snow and the EPS has been honking fairly well the last 2 days FF3165C4-9A49-4B4C-BCCB-61115215A162.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The forecasted pattern is actually even better than the composite of big ATL snows lol.

That's arguably the best hemispheric z500 I've ever seen for snow down here, not sure how anyone could look at that and given this anything less than a 9 out of 10 in terms of planetary-scale favorability. I can't recall many times we have seen a -EPO, -WPO, west-based -NAO, +PNA, & legit -AO all simultaneously, esp in the heart of our climo for cold/snow.
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Planetary-scale favorability index. 9/10. Man that might be a 10/10.


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Based on how the storm affecting NC has eeked south and how much similarities there are to 2/12-14/10 and the look of last nights Euro, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one eek south as well. If anyone remembers tracking 2/12/10, it did the same and had it not been for the very expansive precip shield, many of us would have been skunked.

May be a case where most of us get the 1-3”, which would be nice if we weren’t watching well south of us get 5-10”.
 
Pattern Loaded...
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Webberweather53 said:
The pattern ~Jan 20 on both the GEFS & EPS is honestly nothing short of legendary.

Like 2013-14, we're starting to see a legit -EPO push into the arctic that's forcing the tropospheric polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago towards south-central Canada, but like 2009-10/2010-11, we have a very strong/persistent -AO/west-based -NAO thanks to a major mid-winter SSWE. And to top it off we're doing all this during peak winter climo!

It's so rare to see us get the best both worlds, but it actually looks like that might be the case here in late January.

Knowing what might be coming around the corner, my hype levels are thru the roof right now.

Anything we get prior to mid-month looks like a bonus.


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Not to jinx this, but if we can lay down a snow pack before mid month, perhaps we could actually be headed towards one of those oh-so-rare "cold snow" events where surface temps are unusually cold?
 
Some food for thought not just for this winter but into next summer & perhaps even the following winter. This winter's -NAO enhanced by SSWE is contributing to a warmer tropical Atlantic which significantly boosts our odds of another nasty hurricane season in 2021 & La Nina for next winter. The linked paper in my tweet has more on the inter-basin relationships w/ ENSO

 
sdm47 said:
Not to jinx this, but if we can lay down a snow pack before mid month, perhaps we could actually be headed towards one of those oh-so-rare "cold snow" events where surface temps are unusually cold?
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Yeah we could, something like January 88 may be on the table if we take full advantage of this pattern

January 1988 isn't a horrible analog at 500mb, deep troughs sliding underneath a weak west-based -NAO block coupled w/ -EPO trying to dislodge the polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago close to peak climo. This year's pattern honestly looks better than Jan 88 w/ a stronger -NAO & -AO to boot

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Webberweather53 said:
Some food for thought not just for this winter but into next summer & perhaps even the following winter. This winter's -NAO enhanced by SSWE is contributing to a warmer tropical Atlantic which significantly boosts our odds of another nasty hurricane season in 2021 & La Nina for next winter. The linked paper in my tweet has more on the inter-basin relationships w/ ENSO

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Oh yeah we will pay dearly for this.


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BHS1975 said:
Oh yeah we will pay dearly for this.


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This ASO SSTa trend on the CANSIPS leaves a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. The SSWE and stronger -NAO this winter starts off the tropical Atlantic much warmer going into the following spring & given how every season of late has warmed precipitously between spring & summer thanks to the strong W African Monsoon, it legitimately worries me what could happen this year if we see a similar trend except start out much warmer this time around.

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_atl_fh9_trend.gif
 
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