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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Webberweather53 said:
The pattern around the 20th can definitely support a storm like this

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Yeah, the 6z gfs gives me about 20” of digital snow over the next two weeks. I’m hoping for one good snow of at least 4” that covers up every blade of grass. Obviously, this is a favorable pattern with a number of opportunities. Fun times!
 
Post from James Spann this morning
SNOW????? You will see snow maps plastered all over social media (mostly from people who don’t have a fundamental idea of how NWP – Numerical Weather Prediction – actually works) about the system that will impact Alabama Sunday night into Monday. Looking at deterministic model output for a system this far out really isn’t productive; it is best to use ensemble model output and probabilistic forecasts.

An ensemble is a set of forecasts that present the range of future weather possibilities. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. These variations represent the inevitable uncertainty in the initial conditions and approximations in the models. They produce a range of possible weather conditions.

For now, the American model (the GFS) suggests the chance of snow greater than one inch for North Alabama is 10-20 percent; the European ensemble is a bit more aggressive with 20-30 percent probabilities. There is simply no way now to resolve specific details and provide a meaningful forecast, it is just something to watch. This system could bring a signifiant winter storm to parts of the Deep South, or just a cold rain. We will begin to have a good idea of what to expect late this week.F358EC8C-0AC9-466E-8BF9-733513BF66E5.png
 
The pattern ~Jan 20 on both the GEFS & EPS is honestly nothing short of legendary.

Like 2013-14, we're starting to see a legit -EPO push into the arctic that's forcing the tropospheric polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago towards south-central Canada, but like 2009-10/2010-11, we have a very strong/persistent -AO/west-based -NAO thanks to a major mid-winter SSWE. And to top it off we're doing all this during peak winter climo!

It's so rare to see us get the best both worlds, but it actually looks like that might be the case here in late January.

Knowing what might be coming around the corner, my hype levels are thru the roof right now.

Anything we get prior to mid-month looks like a bonus.


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Webberweather53 said:
The pattern ~Jan 20 on both the GEFS & EPS is honestly nothing short of legendary.

Like 2013-14, we're starting to see a legit -EPO push into the arctic that's forcing the tropospheric polar vortex over the Canadian Archipelago towards south-central Canada, but like 2009-10/2010-11, we have a very strong/persistent -AO/west-based -NAO thanks to a major mid-winter SSWE. And to top it off we're doing all this during peak winter climo!

It's so rare to see us get the best both worlds, but it actually looks like that might be the case here in late January.

Knowing what might be coming around the corner, my hype levels are thru the roof right now.

Anything we get prior to mid-month looks like a bonus.


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Pants obliterated!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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