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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Ignore a thread? I don't even know how to do that. Edit" I found it by searching, but then when I just go back to forums, it's not there. Help, lol
My threads are always reverting to “unread.” I have to click off that button to see all threads. Not sure if that’s your issue - just FYI.
 
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Decent H85 cold shows up around the 16th and hangs around through the end of the GEFS run. Even though the western ridge is too far west, the -NAO keeps the SE ridge at bay (but wants to poke). Surface temps are not very good though.

I wouldn't say great pattern, but we're still in the game I think for some more marginal set ups!

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Seems like it's always complicated.
It is. It's a very big 3D fluid body that's attempting to be predicted days and months in advance. Not like going down to the pond and catching bluegills and tommycods. This shark, swallow you whole. A little shakin', a little tenderizin', down you go.
 
Nice storm on GFS ... hour 300 though. Also too warm south of 85. Shocking, I know.
 
It is always much better to use ensemble means, especially Euro ens mean, to get the best feel for how cold or mild temps will likely be, especially after day 7. These GFS operational maps out past day 10 are little more than entertainment/model cartoons. And that’s not even talking about storms, which are near worthless on the GFS day 10+.
 
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It is always much better to use ensemble means, especially Euro ens mean, to get the best feel for how cold or mild temps will likely be, especially after day 7. These GFS operational maps out past day 10 are little more than entertainment/model cartoons. And that’s not even talking about storms, which are near worthless on the GFS day 10+.
My sleet look out system is buzzing, but my zrain warning system is too. This could be a glorious period or a hellish period, lol, or a glorious hellish period :) The moles are chattering, shivering and wearing hard hats..if that helps.
 
My sleet look out system is buzzing, but my zrain warning system is too. This could be a glorious period or a hellish period, lol, or a glorious hellish period :) The moles are chattering, shivering and wearing hard hats..if that helps.
Yes, it looks like our best (maybe only?) shot will be third week in January. Guidance appears to be consistent at this point. Hopefully some fun model watching next week!
 
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