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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Wonder if we can somehow get a TPV to come our way with this look
But yeah this pattern favors the upper SE a bit (TN/NC and especially the mountains) and the MA/NE quite a bit, those pacific waves earlier on isn’t expected to do much anyways but if they could that’s a bonus 64FBB183-1158-4A59-883F-A4AABC3C0116.png
 
ghost1 said:
I was cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of January a couple weeks ago with the long range signals from the models, but now I want to see cross polar flow bitter cold to come down before I get my hopes built back up. The continental air masses we've seen and are on the horizon won't do much IMO
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I don't really agree with this too much. Maybe it's necessary to get more substantial cold for the areas in the deep south to get into the game, but many of us can do fine with what we've got (or are in striking distance of). If anything, deep cold is more suppressive and does not necessarily mean we have a better chance at getting snow. I think what we're seeing models trend towards is sufficient for many.

Clearly, this is a good trend thru the last 00z EPS:
ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_fh192_trend.gif

And the last frame of that run only strengthened the cold push:
ecmwf_cold_push.png

Obviously this last frame will trend in some direction, but if the current direction is towards colder, then I think we'll do alright temperature-wise once we get past the 10th or so. For now, the favored areas are towards the northern and western tiers of the board: TN, northern MS and AL seem to be in the best position verbatim from that 240 hr map. Expect this solution to change as we get closer, but not necessarily in a bad way.
 
RVD said:
I don't really agree with this too much. Maybe it's necessary to get more substantial cold for the areas in the deep south to get into the game, but many of us can do fine with what we've got (or are in striking distance of). If anything, deep cold is more suppressive and does not necessarily mean we have a better chance at getting snow. I think what we're seeing models trend towards is sufficient for many.

Clearly, this is a good trend thru the last 00z EPS:
View attachment 61528

And the last frame of that run only strengthened the cold push:
View attachment 61532

Obviously this last frame will trend in some direction, but if the current direction is towards colder, then I think we'll do alright temperature-wise once we get past the 10th or so. For now, the favored areas are towards the northern and western tiers of the board: TN, northern MS and AL seem to be in the best position verbatim from that 240 hr map. Expect this solution to change as we get closer, but not necessarily in a bad way.
Click to expand...
I agree with this, we gotta be patient with this pattern it’s not like it’s gonna throw a storm overnight, it’s honestly a step down process but the fact that there’s something close showing up around day 7 is already a good sign
 
for western NC if you want something you want something like this, and even then cold air would possibly be a struggle C810830B-E178-4D4C-A08D-239062342511.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Damn imagine if we could slow that wave off the NE coast a bit moreView attachment 61534
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Ollie Williams said:
The Euro kind of resembles December 2010.
View attachment 61537View attachment 61538
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IDK, I'm not too sold. The 50/50 low is sorta trending that way but I doubt we get there. I think that the wave over the central US is too strong/far north to work out, also. Even if we get more confluence over the NE, I think this is a better setup for the Mid-Atlantic.

Case in point: the upper level low has a strong/established circulation at 850mb that's too far north for us, and driving a big warm nose as a result. Maybe we could fight this off with some more confluence over the NE, but it'd be tough.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_fh96-168.gif
ecmwf_T850_us_8.png
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Not many mountains to block the cold air from reaching Atlanta. Most of the mountains are NE of Atlanta.
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The cumberlands block us all the time. Not to the extent of other areas but they kill out flow snow and hold the cold air somewhat.
 
Those ptype graphics look closer than I thought they'd be, actually! The thing playing in our favor is that the 850 low I mentioned is weakening as it approaches. It's vaguely possible some of the northernmost board members get into the action.
 
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