Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Rain Cold]

If we could stabilize the pattern here, we would be in business shortly. Looks like a -EPO, -AO, and -NAO. A PV is migrating toward the eastern US and deepening, with a bit of cross-polar flow setting up. The PNA is probably neutral, but it doesn't matter all that much here. The pattern looks active.

If this would be stable, you'd see a rapid build-up of cold in our neck of the woods, along with an active storm track. This is what we want to see.. Money.

 

[Stormlover]

Glenn Burns just posted about 2 hours ago about the 0z Euro on Facebook.

He seems to be out of his mind lately...he doesn't understand that the 540 line is at the time, but the precip is the previous 6 hours..cold chasing rain usually

 

[SnowNiner]

EPS 15 day snow mean past 3 days. Strat warm peak is next week or so..."they" say it can take 2-3 weeks after to see real effects.


View attachment 61583

Thanks! This is just my anecdotal observation, but anything less than 2-3 inches in the mean is noise. Anything less and it's not likely to snow IMO. This shows me there's a signal for storm in the Mid-Atlantic and the mountains.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If we could stabilize the pattern here, we would be in business shortly. Looks like a -EPO, -AO, and -NAO. A PV is migrating toward the eastern US and deepening, with a bit of cross-polar flow setting up. The PNA is probably neutral, but it doesn't matter all that much here. The pattern looks active.

If this would be stable, you'd see a rapid build-up of cold in our neck of the woods, along with an active storm track. This is what we want to see.. Money.

View attachment 61584

Hopefully, sometimes those tall ridges Towards the NW territories can dislodge a nice little TPV lobe, looking ahead I think that’s probably the best Option, EPS hints at it a bit, let’s hope

 

[KyloG]

Thanks! This is just my anecdotal observation, but anything less than 2-3 inches in the mean is noise. Anything less and it's not likely to snow IMO. This shows me there's a signal for storm in the Mid-Atlantic and the mountains.

Majority of the mean is day 10+ and I see viable threat for I-40/85 and towards MA.

Its rare for a mean at that range to show more than an inch for our neck of the woods. It needs to get inside day 10. We are a few days from that.

 

[Webberweather53]

Oh look, a -PNA!

Sike.

 

[SnowNiner]

Hopefully, sometimes those tall ridges Towards the NW territories can dislodge a nice little TPV lobe, looking ahead I think that’s probably the best Option, EPS hints at it a bit, let’s hopeView attachment 61585View attachment 61586View attachment 61587

That's another nice option, if we can poke up and get a PV lobe under the block that solves alot of problems.

 

[SD]

Thanks! This is just my anecdotal observation, but anything less than 2-3 inches in the mean is noise. Anything less and it's not likely to snow IMO. This shows me there's a signal for storm in the Mid-Atlantic and the mountains.

At this lead I'm just looking to see if the # of hits increase run over run versus decreases or increases in the mean itself. I'd much rather have 70% of members showing 1-2 than 4% showing 25+ though the mean would be similar

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh look, a -PNA!

Sike.

View attachment 61588

Getting closer to something for sure with that first pacific wave , MA prolly salivating over this trend with that low now off the EC that serves as better CAA for the next one

 

[Stormlover]

https://carolinawxauthority.com/colder-pattern-arriving-next-week-for-the-southeast/

 

[drfranklin]

amazing contrast in temps across the Southeast:
my current temp in Greenville SC is 42
Birmingham, AL is 73!

 

[Webberweather53]

The high-latitude block over Greenland looks basically fully coupled to the stratosphere on the Euro by January 10.

Also starting to see very clear signs of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere propagating into the troposphere and beginning to project onto -AO as we get close to mid-month. This means our -NAO starts to become relatively more -AO-centric w/ time (lifts poleward), also meaning that the air masses that drop into the CONUS will progressively become deeper/cooler w/ time, especially as snow cover builds to our north before then.

January 14-25 (maybe beyond) is providing one of the most favorable looks we've seen in a really long time in the southern US imo. This isn't to say we can't snow prior to then but I think odds are we may be handing off to the mid-Atlantic before mid-month.

Patience is a virtue and will be needed prior to then. I'm honestly willing to bet that by this time next week, ensemble model output fields (snow for ex) start to sniff something out in this period.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The high-latitude block over Greenland looks basically fully coupled to the stratosphere on the Euro by January 10.

Also starting to see very clear signs of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere propagating into the troposphere and beginning to project onto -AO as we get close to mid-month. This means our -NAO starts to become relatively more -AO-centric w/ time (lifts poleward), also meaning that the air masses that drop into the CONUS will progressively become deeper/cooler w/ time, especially as snow cover builds to our north before then.

January 14-25 (maybe beyond) is providing one of the most favorable looks we've seen in a really long time in the southern US imo. This isn't to say we can't snow prior to then but I think odds are we may be handing off to the mid-Atlantic before mid-month.

Patience is a virtue and will be needed prior to then. I'm honestly willing to bet that by this time next week, ensemble model output fields (snow for ex) start to sniff something out in this period.



View attachment 61595

Honestly real interested If would could drop a TPV under the block nearby, that would be epic

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Heaviest rain I’ve probably ever seen right now

 

[Ollie Williams]

The high-latitude block over Greenland looks basically fully coupled to the stratosphere on the Euro by January 10.

Also starting to see very clear signs of the circulation anomalies from the stratosphere propagating into the troposphere and beginning to project onto -AO as we get close to mid-month. This means our -NAO starts to become relatively more -AO-centric w/ time (lifts poleward), also meaning that the air masses that drop into the CONUS will progressively become deeper/cooler w/ time, especially as snow cover builds to our north before then.

January 14-25 (maybe beyond) is providing one of the most favorable looks we've seen in a really long time in the southern US imo. This isn't to say we can't snow prior to then but I think odds are we may be handing off to the mid-Atlantic before mid-month.

Patience is a virtue and will be needed prior to then. I'm honestly willing to bet that by this time next week, ensemble model output fields (snow for ex) start to sniff something out in this period.



View attachment 61595

I do want to see more blocking south of the NE, then things are going to get epic!
Similar to this look.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gonna be a lot of flooding today. This rain is sneaky heavy

 

[Chazwin]

Gonna be a lot of flooding today. This rain is sneaky heavy

Yeah you’re right there near the wedge boundary with a ton of warm moist air overrunning you... it’s 66 in Atlanta right now

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[LickWx]

Yeah you’re right there near the wedge boundary with a ton of warm moist air overrunning you... it’s 66 in Atlanta right now

How big of a fire would I have to light to warm the lower layer and break the CAD ?

 

[Webberweather53]

I do want to see more blocking south of the NE, then things are going to get epic!
Similar to this look.
View attachment 61597

The biggest piece of the puzzle we're missing for a big board-wide event and/or classic southern US overrunning is a nice trough over the Great Lakes & SE Canada to suppress the storm track to the south & drive these air masses into our neck of the woods. These obviously aren't usually fully resolved til the medium range and you don't necessarily need a giant vortex/-EPO to make a nice overrunning happen, even a respectable relatively transient s/w near the Lakes can easily get the job done. These types of features are usually a bit more frequent and easier to come by when our blocking high is a bit further north as NWP is hinting at by mid-month. Coupled with the SSWE, I think that's when we start to see the more -AO centric block and the door swings wide open on our potential for a major winter storm. We shall see though.