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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I'm really keying in on the 17-19 time frame in the SE. I think there is signals for a pretty good winter storm.

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There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.

There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
 
Rain Cold said:
There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.

There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
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bingo, until then. we are just grasping at straws and hoping. get ready for the cold rains
 
Rain Cold said:
There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.

There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
Click to expand...

Who you got? The last 10 days of January has been a popular time for us to see snow.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-1273600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-1273600.png
 
Biggest change on NWP vs 3 days ago is the lack of ridging in the Bering Sea + near & north of Alaska. Eurasia also looks a lot colder and there's more -NAO.

Is this there not enough cold air around in this pattern now as currently modeled as some are claiming above? Well... no that's not true at all esp if you live near the I-40 corridor in TN & NC. For ex, we just had snow east of the mtns in the Carolinas and a snowstorm is striking Texas well south of the 20 corridor, whose snow climo is total garbage vs most of this board, and despite the change to less high-latitude blocking in the Pacific-Arctic, the pattern still looks like it'll be legitimately colder overall in the extended than it is now. So, to say there isn't enough cold air w/ pattern as modeled is total nonsense imo. Oth, for the I-20 corridor and places like Columbia, Atlanta, you might have an argument.

3 days ago 5-day EPS z500 ending 0z Jan 22

1610286153255.png

Today's 5-day EPS z500 ending 0z Jan 22

1610286129823.png
 
Rain Cold said:
There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.

There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
Click to expand...

This is just not the “WOW” pattern some said was coming. Just because it snows doesn’t make an overall pattern great. Is there time for that to change? Sure! It’s a wait and see game for now.


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whatalife said:
This is just not the “WOW” pattern some said was coming. Just because it snows doesn’t make an overall pattern great. Is there time for that to change? Sure! It’s a wait and see game for now.


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Well that's not really true though, if it's snowing in south-central Texas in the current pattern w/ snow climo that's even worse than Columbia-Atlanta, and the one we're going to is better I'd say it's a great pattern. There's some synoptic luck involved but you have to be good if not great to be lucky.
 
Just FYI but I did some major digging. Here is last nights 00z Euro for D6:

43CBFEB0-C60A-469B-94C6-7CC710B950BD.png

And here was the 1/18/18 storm at D6 on the Euro:

8DA2FC50-1D80-40EC-9503-7D79564F883C.jpeg

Certainly some similarities. Just need a little help. Probably won't get it, but worth watching another day or two IMO.
 
sdm47 said:
Just FYI but I did some major digging. Here is last nights 00z Euro for D6:

View attachment 64701

And here was the 1/18/18 storm at D6 on the Euro:

View attachment 64702

Certainly some similarities. Just need a little help. Probably won't get it, but worth watching a other day or two.
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There's not anything similar on that map at all. Tilt is entirely different, that massive 1048 high isn't there, there's a low up in the GL region, etc.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well that's not really true though, if it's snowing in south-central Texas in the current pattern w/ snow climo that's even worse than Columbia-Atlanta, and the one we're going to is better I'd say it's a great pattern. There's some synoptic luck involved but you have to be good if not great to be lucky.
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It snows in south central TX every year and Mexico and in the Southwest. Very happy for those people. I don't see any mechanism to direct arctic air into the southeastern US on a sustainable basis right now. Maybe something gets well-timed for the Triad, mountains, VA, and extreme northern GA, AL, and for TN. That's pretty typical too. They can work much better with stale air and marginal dew points.

But for a large chunk of the SE, south of those areas, we're going to need something more than an in and out cold shot if we are to get something other than a thread the needle scenario. Until we start to see arctic highs showing up, you can post ensemble maps showing blue streaks until you're blue in the face, but it's just going to be more cold rain for most.

Maybe we get a late blooming phased coastal that crashes the column and we snow. Otherwise, give me a big high pressure. Until I see that, this isn't all that great of a pattern, IMO. And I certainly don't think any of that is nonsense.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well that's not really true though, if it's snowing in south-central Texas in the current pattern w/ snow climo that's even worse than Columbia-Atlanta, and the one we're going to is better I'd say it's a great pattern. There's some synoptic luck involved but you have to be good if not great to be lucky.
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Its definitely a great pattern for me with 4 wheels and full tank of gas??.
 
ForsythSnow said:
There's not anything similar on that map at all. Tilt is entirely different, that massive 1048 high isn't there, there's a low up in the GL region, etc.
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Try again, look at the large scale H5 features that actually drove that storm not meaningless model noise. You missed the mark badly.
 
Rain Cold said:
It snows in south central TX every year and Mexico and in the Southwest. Very happy for those people. I don't see any mechanism to direct arctic air into the southeastern US on a sustainable basis right now. Maybe something gets well-timed for the Triad, mountains, VA, and extreme northern GA, AL, and for TN. That's pretty typical too. They can work much better with stale air and marginal dew points.

But for a large chunk of the SE, south of those areas, we're going to need something more than an in and out cold shot if we are to get something other than a thread the needle scenario. Until we start to see arctic highs showing up, you can post ensemble maps showing blue streaks until you're blue in the face, but it's just going to be more cold rain for most.

Maybe we get a late blooming phased coastal that crashes the column and we snow. Otherwise, give me a big high pressure. Until I see that, this isn't all that great of a pattern, IMO. And I certainly don't think any of that is nonsense.
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It's 100% nonsense if you're gonna try to convince us that there isn't enough cold air next week and it's basically snowing almost to the Gulf coast in today in a worse pattern.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well that's not really true though, if it's snowing in south-central Texas in the current pattern w/ snow climo that's even worse than Columbia-Atlanta, and the one we're going to is better I'd say it's a great pattern. There's some synoptic luck involved but you have to be good if not great to be lucky.
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I hope so because that GFS run was not a good look for BHM and ATL at all. Meanwhile Texas gets yet another shot. I’m sure the model runs will change as always.


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The 0z euro didn't seem that bad to me overall, the systems on the 15/16 and 19/20 are worth a look. It's a pattern that certainly needs a stroke of luck and probably being in the right place at the right time to really pay off. We can't sit here and say modeled storms don't work out if they show after D3 but then say the pattern sucks bc there's no storm after d3500hv.conus (43).png
500hv.conus (44).png
 
Rain Cold said:
It snows in south central TX every year and Mexico and in the Southwest. Very happy for those people. I don't see any mechanism to direct arctic air into the southeastern US on a sustainable basis right now. Maybe something gets well-timed for the Triad, mountains, VA, and extreme northern GA, AL, and for TN. That's pretty typical too. They can work much better with stale air and marginal dew points.

But for a large chunk of the SE, south of those areas, we're going to need something more than an in and out cold shot if we are to get something other than a thread the needle scenario. Until we start to see arctic highs showing up, you can post ensemble maps showing blue streaks until you're blue in the face, but it's just going to be more cold rain for most.

Maybe we get a late blooming phased coastal that crashes the column and we snow. Otherwise, give me a big high pressure. Until I see that, this isn't all that great of a pattern, IMO. And I certainly don't think any of that is nonsense.
Click to expand...

Feels like routinely Texas gets a low to cutoff, produce its own cold, and get a blizzard. Meanwhile for us this concept is rare meteorological lore.


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Rain Cold said:
It snows in south central TX every year and Mexico and in the Southwest. Very happy for those people. I don't see any mechanism to direct arctic air into the southeastern US on a sustainable basis right now. Maybe something gets well-timed for the Triad, mountains, VA, and extreme northern GA, AL, and for TN. That's pretty typical too. They can work much better with stale air and marginal dew points.

But for a large chunk of the SE, south of those areas, we're going to need something more than an in and out cold shot if we are to get something other than a thread the needle scenario. Until we start to see arctic highs showing up, you can post ensemble maps showing blue streaks until you're blue in the face, but it's just going to be more cold rain for most.

Maybe we get a late blooming phased coastal that crashes the column and we snow. Otherwise, give me a big high pressure. Until I see that, this isn't all that great of a pattern, IMO. And I certainly don't think any of that is nonsense.
Click to expand...
This is basically what we are looking for through D10, pattern certainly favors single low stripe of snow for the lucky ones and pain for everyone else
 
Rain Cold said:
There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.

There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
Click to expand...
On TWC, Dr Postel just said no arctic outbreak thru early February! Just sad, the models suck
 
Mr. Golf said:
I think if the split from the SSW dont come to fruition, we won't get any sustainable cold. All along it was supposed to be mid January to end of January, if it happens. That's why people should never hype up SSW events. Its fruitless.
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The SSW is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do and that’s to create prolonged and intense -NAO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The SSW is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do and that’s to create prolonged and intense -NAO.
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I will say that I spoke to this lady from England on Twitter last week and she said SSW events sometimes require a "drip" effect to reach troposphere. Meaning slower than usual. ??
 
Mr. Golf said:
I think if the split from the SSW dont come to fruition, we won't get any sustainable cold. All along it was supposed to be mid January to end of January, if it happens. That's why people should never hype up SSW events. Its fruitless.
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Your saw what happened last year with no SSW and the PV was similar to the great jupiter storm. You aren't going to get high latitude blocking with a strong pv. If you can't get HLB you might as well move along
 
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