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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
The gefs is quite active fwiw View attachment 64709View attachment 64710View attachment 64712View attachment 64711View attachment 64708
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Clearly, the pattern we're going to is a colder & better one than what we have now which even as crappy as it looks has produced back-to-back winter storms along and south of the 40 corridor. A couple degrees colder than what we have now would have resulted in a major winter storm in the Carolinas on the 8th, and what we're headed towards ~ Jan 20th is more than capable of making things at least a few degrees colder overall than what we're currently seeing.


Now


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-0690400.png


~Jan 20th
1610291499911.png
 
tennessee storm said:
yeah, and most time we dont benefit from it either, congrats europe again as always it seems
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Europe is literally the least favored place for the PV . Not enough land mass and lots of oceanic influence . Asia and North America thats who will almost always get the Polar Vortex.
 
Indices don't looks good for the extended.
PNA - looks to go negative --> this is the killer
NAO - Looks to stay (by average) slight negative --> not bad
AO - Looks to go neutral (by average) --> not sure

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

In my opinion, the PNA has been the most crucial element in providing winter storms (at least for my zone). I read in the past, and I think Webber has discussed, the EPO could save the day. I remember a few years back where that seemed to have happened.
 
I do agree, we have lost a bit of the PAC (with the building heights and building SFC pressures) so we lost a bit of the models showing a big high coming down yes. However, agree with Webb.... this pattern is still better than what we have had so far and it’s snowing into deep TX and going to make it into central LA!! Better timing and that could have been the I-20 corridor. Either way I think we are all just lucky we are not “torching” right now. The -NAO has helped us tremendously.
 
FallsLake said:
Indices don't looks good for the extended.
PNA - looks to go negative --> this is the killer
NAO - Looks to stay (by average) slight negative --> not bad
AO - Looks to go neutral (by average) --> not sure

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

In my opinion, the PNA has been the most crucial element in providing winter storms (at least for my zone). I read in the past, and I think Webber has discussed, the EPO could save the day. I remember a few years back where that seemed to have happened.
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-PNA here could aid in a overrunning setup
 
Webberweather53 said:
Clearly, the pattern we're going to is a colder & better one than what we have now which even as crappy as it looks has produced back-to-back winter storms along and south of the 40 corridor. A couple degrees colder than what we have now would have resulted in a major winter storm in the Carolinas on the 8th, and what we're headed towards ~ Jan 20th is more than capable of making things at least a few degrees colder overall than what we're currently seeing.


Now


View attachment 64714


~Jan 20th
View attachment 64713
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So do we believe the GFS/GEFS is handling the upcoming pattern better then the other models. I saw JB only sawing GEFS last night. If so...why? Trying to understand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Clearly, the pattern we're going to is a colder & better one than what we have now which even as crappy as it looks has produced back-to-back winter storms along and south of the 40 corridor. A couple degrees colder than what we have now would have resulted in a major winter storm in the Carolinas on the 8th, and what we're headed towards ~ Jan 20th is more than capable of making things at least a few degrees colder overall than what we're currently seeing.


Now


View attachment 64714


~Jan 20th
View attachment 64713
Click to expand...
I will take my chances with just a few degrees colder than now. When I hear extreme cold I think suppression which is what historically happens.
 
FallsLake said:
Indices don't looks good for the extended.
PNA - looks to go negative --> this is the killer
NAO - Looks to stay (by average) slight negative --> not bad
AO - Looks to go neutral (by average) --> not sure

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)

In my opinion, the PNA has been the most crucial element in providing winter storms (at least for my zone). I read in the past, and I think Webber has discussed, the EPO could save the day. I remember a few years back where that seemed to have happened.
Click to expand...

Neutral to slightly negative PNA is good if you want overrunning or cad events, you need s/ws to dig into the Southern Rockis/Plains to turn the flow out of the WSW to get any moisture or warm advection going to trigger precip in the SE US. A strong +PNA and you have deep-layer dry NW flow and you're usually cold/dry save for coastal cyclones w/ mostly a threat for Miller As (also not bad either if you're in RDU). -PNA/-NAO is a great pattern for Miller Bs/CAD & is pretty much a roller coaster ride when it comes to temps precip. Basically anything aside from a hurricane is fair game in -PNA/-NAOs (severe, cold rain, big winter storms/ice, etc.)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well that's not really true though, if it's snowing in south-central Texas in the current pattern w/ snow climo that's even worse than Columbia-Atlanta, and the one we're going to is better I'd say it's a great pattern. There's some synoptic luck involved but you have to be good if not great to be lucky.
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Does it matter if you don't see any snow?
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s the 10th but we say this every year. I’m going with the odds. I probably won’t see snow beside another flurry storm and that ok.
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Guess I need to check my calendar. Either way, I can count on one hand the number of years I didn’t have my ground covered with snow with at least close to an inch. It could happen this year but odds are we see something.
 
whatalife said:
So do we believe the GFS/GEFS is handling the upcoming pattern better then the other models. I saw JB only sawing GEFS last night. If so...why? Trying to understand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It doesn't matter if you pick the GEFS or EPS, both suites look at least a few degrees colder than we are now overall and we're already clearly marginally favorable enough to get snow, so I'd say it's more than sufficient at least up here in NC. Down in your neck of the woods maybe you have something to complain about losing the big block north of Alaska.


Brick Tamland said:
Does it matter if you don't see any snow?
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I saw snow here at my house on the 8th in a worse pattern so I'd say that's pretty irrelevant.
 
Rain Cold said:
There is just no cold air transport into the southeastern US. All of the solutions that were showing serious and sustained cold air intrusions a few days ago are gone. Even if the storm trends more favorably, unless something changes up north to bring cold air back into the picture, then it's a cold rain for most, with maybe a little 34 degree front and back end slop.

There is no cold air. It's just that simple.
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That's why I say things don't work out like they used to. We see patterns that used to pretty much guarantee us snow here but for some reason now they don't produce nearly as often as those same great patterns did before. It doesn't matter how good the pattern supposedly is if it doesn't produce a good snow storm for most folks that used to get one out of the same pattern in the past.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It doesn't matter if you pick the GEFS or EPS, both suites look at least a few degrees colder than we are now overall and we're already clearly marginally favorable enough to get snow, so I'd say it's more than sufficient at least up here in NC. Down in your neck of the woods maybe you have something to complain about losing the big block north of Alaska.




I saw snow here at my house on the 8th in a worse pattern so I'd say that's pretty irrelevant.
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It is relevant if a pattern that is supposedly great for producing snow for most folks doesn't produce. Either the pattern really isn't that great and we can't get those patterns anymore, or for some reason the same pattern that used to give us snow in the past just doesn't produce the same now. Either way it sucks for those that don't get anything out of it, and makes it feel more like a crapshoot than anything now.
 
Arcc said:
If any are complaining about this, they just need to quit winter and start liking something else.
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People are just pissed the storm on the 8th didn't produce legit accumulating snow as many (aside from myself) were hoping for in the Carolinas. There's just a bunch of overreacting this morning in here to a pattern that clearly still looks good for a majority of the board, just not near-perfect like we saw several days ago.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That's why I say things don't work out like they used to. We see patterns that used to pretty much guarantee us snow here but for some reason now they don't produce nearly as often as those same great patterns did before. It doesn't matter how good the pattern supposedly is if it doesn't produce a good snow storm for most folks that used to get one out of the same pattern in the past.
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Maybe because they didn't produce as much as you think. It's easy to pull historic storms and get their patterns and say this is when it snows but if you aren't looking at the times it didn't you are biasing the results
 
Brick Tamland said:
It is relevant if a pattern that is supposedly great for producing snow for most folks doesn't produce. Either the pattern really isn't that great and we can't get those patterns anymore, or for some reason the same pattern that used to give us snow in the past just doesn't produce the same now. Either way it sucks for those that don't get anything out of it, and makes it feel more like a crapshoot than anything now.
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This pattern we're talking about ~Jan 20th hasn't verified yet and what we're in now is definitely much worse & still produced snow here. I don't see a problem here

January 7-9 2021 NC Snowmap1.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Clearly, the pattern we're going to is a colder & better one than what we have now which even as crappy as it looks has produced back-to-back winter storms along and south of the 40 corridor. A couple degrees colder than what we have now would have resulted in a major winter storm in the Carolinas on the 8th, and what we're headed towards ~ Jan 20th is more than capable of making things at least a few degrees colder overall than what we're currently seeing.


Now


View attachment 64714


~Jan 20th
View attachment 64713
Click to expand...
My contention is that this look will end up looking more like the current map you posted right above, when we get to it, yielding more marginal setups. I'm not saying it's impossible to snow, but if it does, it will be without true arctic air, most likely, and will be the result of dynamic processes or a bombing coastal, as opposed to what the GFS was showing yesterday. And it will favor northern areas yet again. That is the way it looks to me now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
People are just pissed the storm on the 8th didn't produce legit accumulating snow as many (aside from myself) were hoping for in the Carolinas. There's just a bunch of overreacting this morning in here to a pattern that clearly still looks good for a majority of the board, just not near-perfect like we saw several days ago.
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I’m a little annoyed about the storm tomorrow, but I was crushed February 2015. Life goes on.
 
SD said:
Maybe because they didn't produce as much as you think. It's easy to pull historic storms and get their patterns and say this is when it snows but if you aren't looking at the times it didn't you are biasing the results
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It doesn't have to be a historic storm. Just ssying if a pattern is called great for producing snow around here then it should be one that we have seen in the past that more times than not did produce. I don't think it would be a pattern that was called great if that wasn't the case.
 
Arcc said:
I think most people forget just how marginal most of the events were and how perfect timing meant the difference from a storm we all can remember and one that is just another cold day or cold rain.
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People also weren't around back then or have looked at enough past storms and patterns to see how many good ones were totally wasted because we only look at and focus on the successes of the past & not the butload of failures that interspersed those eras. The future isn't as grim as most make it out to be and the past tends to be over romanticized.
 
Rain Cold said:
My contention is that this look will end up looking more like the current map you posted right above, when we get to it, yielding more marginal setups. I'm not saying it's impossible to snow, but if it does, it will be without true arctic air, most likely, and will be the result of dynamic processes or a bombing coastal, as opposed to what the GFS was showing yesterday. That is the way it looks to me now.
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This is based on what exactly?
 
I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Just saying there is a reason a pattern would be called great. If it didn't produce in the past more often than not then I doubt it would be seen as a great pattern. And if it that pattern starts to not produce like it used to, then something has changed.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It doesn't have to be a historic storm. Just ssying if a pattern is called great for producing snow around here then it should be one that we have seen in the past that more times than not did produce. I don't think it would be a pattern that was called great if that wasn't the case.
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We literally just got snow in one of the most marginal setups known to man in a period that wasn't advertised, at least by mets like me, to be one worth watching. I literally said this verbatim about the current period and the storm on the 8th at what seems like ad nauseam and it panned out almost exactly how I said it would. Not sure why anyone seems surprised by this or all of a sudden now feels super pessimistic about what's following because what we've been seeing was supposed to happen, at least according to me.

Webberweather53 said:
cP air mass in early-mid January is at best marginally favorable for snow in NC, until the block starts to shift north a bit and we have a few storms under our belt to secure some snow to the north, meh. We gotta do everything right, get a slightly stronger upper trough, then have the heaviest precip arrive during the late overnight/early morning to have any real chance to get accumulating snow out of this and even checking all of these boxes is gonna be difficult.
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Webberweather53 said:
This of course isn’t to say we can’t see snow before then, the pattern generally looks marginally favorable from about I40 and pts north during the first 10-12 days of the month and arguably really good for the mid Atlantic.
Things just look a lot less marginal the following week or so in January imo
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https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2021-joyless-january.855/page-67#post-366716
 
Webberweather53 said:
We literally just got snow in one of the most marginal setups known to man in a period that wasn't advertised, at least by mets like me, to be one worth watching. I literally said this verbatim about the current period and the storm on the 8th at what seems like ad nauseam and it panned out almost exactly how I said it would. Not sure why anyone seems surprised by this or all of a sudden now feels super pessimistic about what's following because what we've been seeing was supposed to happen, at least according to me.






https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2021-joyless-january.855/page-67#post-366716
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The first system wasn’t even supposed to be much lol, I wasn’t expecting nothing for it 4-5 days before it, the fact we scored off of it is impressive, and it’s a warm up imo
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The first system wasn’t even supposed to be much lol, I wasn’t expecting nothing for it 4-5 days before it, the fact we scored off of it is impressive, and it’s a warm up imo
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Yep. Been saying for weeks now that the Jan 15-25 period is the best looking window & pattern we've had all winter and nothing has happened since I said this to change my mind. It's gonna come down to getting a synoptic luck of the draw but the good pattern will probably verify and early signs are that after Jan 25 this pattern might go to ?.
 
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